A couple more today...
Iowa State +4 at Oklahoma. At first glance, this looks like an easy play on OU. ISU has had a disappointing season, so what is their motivation? Meanwhile, the Sooners are still playing for a spot in the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners are back home where they have performed well this year, and Iowa State is 1-3 on the road in Big 12 play. Why Iowa State? Matt Campbell is 2-3 SU against the Sooners, but is 4-1 ATS. He seems to have the Sooners number. Second, OU is a highly distracted team right now. Lots of rumors about Coach Riley going to LSU and those rumors won't die out. At least not yet. Finally, Caleb Williams came back to earth last week. In fact, both he and Spencer Rattler looked lost against Baylor last week. Iowa State will throw a lot at the young QB, and I expect a lot more confusion out of him. Statistically, ISU has a better D than Baylor which shut down the Sooners last week. I expect the ISU defense to get more pressure on Williams than Baylor did. And they have a better D than the Sooners. Give me the better defense against the largely inexperienced QB, and the 4 points.
Illinois +12 at Iowa Combo of high spread and low total has me on the underdog. Another one that matches this criteria that I like...
Rutgers +17.5 at Penn State
Maryland +15 vs Michigan - Sandwich spot for Michigan, coming off a tough, physical game at Penn State last week, and Ohio State at home next week. In between, you have this soft spot on the road versus a Maryland team that has really fallen off the wagon. The Wolverines will want to get in, get the W, don't lose anyone to injury, and go home. Nothing more. Plus, Michigan has a ball control offense that likes to eat clock, and Maryland has enough offense to keep it within the number.
Baylor/Kansas State Over 50 the weather in Manhattan, KS on Saturday - temps in the mid to upper 50's at kickoff, with winds expected to be less than 10 mph. Perfect day for some scoring. K-State has surrendered at least 30 points in each of their 3 defeats. Baylor has an offense that can easily put up 30 on the Wildcats. Baylor has surrendered at least 24 in 5 of their last 8.
Baylor +/-1 at Kansas State this line has bounced around the Pick 'em all week. This is basically a bet on who you think is the better team. For me, that team is Baylor. Looking at the body of work, and the quality of opposition, I can only go with the Bears.
Cincinnati -11.5 vs SMU -the difference in the defenses allows Cincinnati to win and cover here.
BOL everyone!