Iowa State -7 -110 ***
Iowa State -4 FIRST HALF ***
By now, everyone knows the general thoughts of this game:
Iowa State is power rated higher
A Ranked team catching a full TD at an unranked team raises red flags
Spencer Sanders has more TO than any player in the last 3 years of CFB
We know there is a trend with this ISU team. Start slow, lose to Iowa and heat up come October. This team is actually 16-2 last 18 ATS in October. However, there are 1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU last two against Oklahoma State. This gives me pause. You think Gundy has this team figured out, and he does. Can't argue with that, but what we can argue is how those games were played compared to this year.
Two years ago: Clones gave up 3 long TD's of 50+ in the first half, which is not the norm. This is also the game Purdy threw 3 INT (including game losing pick 6) in 3/4 possessions.
Last year was ugly on both sides and OK ST got the win without as much drama as above. What stands out from these last couple years in Ok St doesn't have the play makers that made these big plays against this D. No Wallace or Hubbard specifically.
OK ST 95
Off Rush YPP
OK ST 82
While we have a wash as far as defensive statistics, I like Iowa State to limit the big plays from the last couple years. Also note that in def Sack percentage, both teams have improved over the last couple years, but given ISU went from 80th to 46th to now 7th makes me more comfortable with Sanders forcing turnovers rather than Purdy.
Regarding Ok St, we also know they were fortunate to win and cover against Boise State, got a backup and 3rd string QB against KSU and then last week against TX. Texas has now shown two weeks in a row that they have a good first half game plan, but fold in the second half. I am not taking anything away from Ok St's win, as I was on them and expected it, but TX D is pretty bad and OK ST won't be able to move the ball in the same way.
To the previous point, I like ISU in the first half as well. Both teams are stingy in the second half, so think they are correlated. Iowa State should continue starting well and if they are up 7-10 points in the second half, don't expect them to relinquish the lead.
Lastly, Iowa State's special teams have cost them games, most notably against Baylor this year. They made a punter change since then and now have a kicker who is pretty darn good. 4/4 against KSU. Feel good about where they were deficient early this season and last couple seasons.
PS...BROCKTOBER...that is all
17-15 ATS posted
(4 in a row, hope to keep this little hot streak going.)
All the best to everyone today