Looks like some tight lines this week, but I like these:
Oklahoma State +5 The key to an OSU victory will be their ability to run the ball. I wouldn't trust Spencer Sanders to pass the Cowboys to a win. But what I really like here is the OSU run defense. The Cowboys surrendered just 62 rushing yards to Kansas State and 107 to Baylor. Now you may counter that Texas has Bijan Thompson, who has rushed for 789 yards in 6 games. But if you look at UT's 2 losses, they rushed for just 138 against Arkansas and 128 against OU. In other words, their rushing attack has been ineffective against good run defenses. And I don't look for the OSU pass defense to be as bad as OU's was last week. Defensively, Texas is bad, having given up over 1600 yards in 3 conference games. This is just the defense that OSU's offense needs to see. Finally, you have to wonder about UT's state of mind after last week. I like the Cowboys to cover the spread and win outright. I also like the Under here.
Iowa State -6.5 This line has moved quite a bit this week, but I still like the Cyclones.. ISU has become a forgotten team, but this is still a terrific team and they still control their own destiny in the Big 12. As for the match up, I like ISU's ability to move the ball against the K State defense. Look for at 30 points from the Cyclones. Meanwhile, K State will struggle to move the ball this week. K State is good on special teams, which could blow up this bet. But I say it won't blow it up. 35-24 Cyclones.
If Caleb Williams starts at QB for Oklahoma (and I think he will), I like them -12 vs TCU. OU knows they are still very much in the CFP picture. TCU has been disappointing overall, and their run defense has disappeared.
Texas A&M -9 This looks very square after last week. However, here is a list of teams Missouri has beaten: Central Michigan, Southeast Missouri, North Texas. They are 0 for 2021 ATS. Their run defense is non existent. The Aggies offense has been sporadic this year, but they are facing the cure for that this week.
Kansas and the points in the first half against Texas Tech.
Will likely stay off Baylor and BYU here. Lean Baylor, but that line has moved big. BYU could cover that 6 point spread.
Purdue +12 Iowa could let down just a bit.
Will likely have more later this week. BOL everyone.