DMF: Good luck. Running oriented offenses, playing in the "Fun Belt". Expected a tight game, -3 may be the better number, and may in fact be the right side.
Peripherals to consider, aside from the typical generic mumbo-jumbo stat crunch regurgitation, that for the most part, is meaningless, since the books always have the "stat pie" baked into the number. Where the books cannot be as accurate is on the peripherals...
Thoughts to consider:
While we can expect a relatively competitive game from these two programs, especially since both lean on the run, our focus should turn to the special teams and see if there is anything there that may give us pause for concern...
That said, the present Ragin' Cajun place kicker is a backup, who has been shaky of late putting the oblong pigskin through the pipes, and does not have much range, nor accuracy, to his favor.
Makes you like the Mountaineer line a little bit more, right? Well that is until...
You look at the QB play for each squad. Chase Brice of the Mountaineers has been a nice transfer find after Zach Thomas finished his eligibility. He is solid, can make the basic throws and has decent receivers to work with. For the Ragin' Cajun's its about Levi Lewis. In one word, efficient. Not prone to the interception, decent receivers to work with, a senior that is battle tested. But here may be the rub... Lewis did not play well when these two teams met last season, and despite of this, the Cajun's still won that game. Fast forward to present, and Lewis laid a complete egg last week versus the South Alabama, yet the Cajun's still eeked out a win. My gut tells me that this efficient senior will deliver a better QB performance tonight than Brice.
Personally, I missed my number of +5 for this game. Presently I see +4's all over town, and that seems about right, which is why I stated that DMF got a good line.
For me the litmus test will be:
(1) Can the Cajun's get 20+ points. If you feel confident that they can, +4.5 should get it done, and possibly even justify a nibble on the moneyline.
(2) The Cajun' defense is more stingy than the stat line would indicate. Let's keep in mind that the stat line is being skewed by the 278 yard beat down at the hands of Georgia Southern's option attack laid on the Cajun's. Other than that kick to the face, the Cajun's have averaged around 170 yards versus other competition. Now, we can quibble about the talent level of the other offenses that the Cajun's have faced, but the general gist is that their defense is not as bad as the stat line suggests.
Expect a tight game. The outcome will depend on QB Lewis being able to bring it, there defense staying stingy and for them to avoid field goal kicker point support, in high leverage pressure situations. Historically, these two programs know each other's tendencies well and thus my comments on DMF's -3 line snatch as a nice play. Kudos. The kennel may consider a nibble on a +4.5, just to make the hassle of flippin' between the Giants and Dodgers game, and this snore fest, more palpable, and then assess whether an in-game ML play makes sense, if Lewis brings his "A" game early.