405 W Kentucky (+12.5) over Louisville
I like WKU in this spot. With the line opening at 13.5 and Louisville getting majority of the tickets and money the line is down to 12 so we have some reverse line movement and I think this line is still to high and should be around 7 so there’s almost a touchdown worth of value on WKU. WKU returns 16 out of 22 starters including their leading rusher in Gaej Walker who rushed for over 1200 yards and 2 of their top 3 WRs as well as 9 of their 11 starters on defense. WKU also has a grad transfer at QB from Maryland in Tyrrell Pigrome who I expect to play with a chip on his shoulder with something to prove. Another reason why i like WKU is these teams have played each other over the last 2 seasons with Louisville winning by an average of 10 points with their meeting in 2018 being more competitive so I think Louisville could be caught overlooking WKU and looking forward to their matchup next week with Miami.