Great week last week!! 2-0 on GA and 4-0 on my SEC plays. With the winnings I was able to support a few single mothers late Saturday night. But with any streak comes regression….I'm hoping to push that off for another week. Good luck everyone.
This one is a little difficult. Missouri has been awful on the road this year…terrible. 0-3 SU 0-3 ATS. Their last two games, they have lost a combined 50-21 to the likes of Vandy and Kentucky. Two teams GA beat by a combined 51-6. How will they react coming off the bye? Treat this as their bowl game? Mail it in on the season?
Missouri has covered the last 4 times vs GA. But those game they also had Drew Locke at QB. While Locke is not a world beater he is able to keep the defense honest and did burn us deep on more than 1 occasion. Kelly Bryant is expected to play but, he is undoubtedly still going to be hampered by that hamstring injury. Without his legs Bryant really scares no one.
Missouri’s defense hasn’t been awful this year, until late. Their passing defense efficiency is still high and they rank 2nd, behind Clemson, in defensive 1st down rate.
Georgia comes off a big win vs Florida. They dominated that game. The final score doesn’t show how bad they dominated the Gators. This game also show how much they missed WR Cager going out in the SC. The offense missed him that game and Fromm was lost because he didn’t really trust any other WR’s. With Cager back last week you saw Fromm a lot more comfortable and the offense looked really good. A ton of 3rd down conversions.
Georgia’s motivation should be extremely high. They have everything in front of them. They are 6th in the playoff and they only need to keep winning. I look for them to come out and pressure Bryant from the jump and see how that mobility is. As stated above Bryants arm is not that great. Missouri’s rush defense has been gashed lately. 2 of the last 3 games they have given up 200+ yards rushing. Granted those were running QB’s but, I feel there are still going to be plenty of holes up front for the GA backs.
Another factor? Night game in Athens….we usually win these pretty convincingly.
I also like the under in this on. Georgia is avg around 24-25 points per game in games once you take out the two cupcakes. So I haven’t seen anything close to a 40 point game….yet from GA. Given Missouri latest troubles with much less talented offenses, I think GA can get to that 31-35 range. If the defense plays to its normal standard Missouri will have a hard time getting more than 14 behind one dimensional Bryant
Bottom line is, if I take Missouri it’s on blind hope that they actually show up and care. The last two games has shown me nothing to go on. I’d be pissed if I wasted money on them knowing they have waved a white flag recently. Seems like a homer pick and maybe it is but, this number isn’t anything scary with a D that should keep them pinned on their side of the field most of the game. I’m giving 16.5 and also taking the under 48 in this one. 31-10 2 WINNERS
Bama -6...this game hasn't been within a TD since 2012. As pourus as the Bama D has looked this year they are top 5 in lowest % of opponent drives that end in a TD. They slow down LSU just enough and cover the 6 Loser
Arkansas/WKU under 52…..This is going to be an ugly game. Both teams have issues on offense. Arkansas lost its main scoring threat and is going to break in a new QB. Morris is going to try and grind out a win in what is their last chance at a W of the season Loser
Vanderbilt +27….Its the cliché let down game for the Gators. Sprinkle in a noon kickoff and almost 4td’s of spread and Ill take a chance on the ‘Dores. Loser
App St +6.5…..App St might of got caught looking ahead last week vs GASU. SC can’t afford that. They need two more wins to get bowl eligible and possibly save Muschamps job. But this will be one more time to shine against a Power 5 conference for the Mountaineers. They beat UNC earlier this year. They might not win it but, I feel they can hang around an up and down SC team long enough to make the home fans nervous. WINNER
Tennessee +1.5….Both teams have been covering fools lately. The Wildcats have settled in nicely to having Bowden run the show. The Wildcats come off a bye and would love a little payback on UT. But UT has been playing much, much better lately. In fact they’ve only lost to Florida, Bama, and GA since those first two week disasters. Kentucky may be a little fools gold right now with recent wins over some troubled teams(Mizzou and Arkansas) and the hits seems to taking a toll on Bowden as he had to leave last game . Vols get their 3rd straight win tonight WINNER
Ole Miss -28.5…. Over the past years the Rebels seem to always cover games like this. Games vs no name teams. Nothing much to say except the Rebels lay the hammer down today and win by 35+ WINNER