Saturday turned out to be “Separation Saturday” in the Big 12. The league race sets up for a 4-team race in November to determine the league champion and the two teams who will play for the league’s playoff spot. Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State and Texas stepped up. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU fell by the wayside. Oklahoma remains the favorite, and I do not see anyone beating them. The race for spots 2-4 will be quite a race. I see Baylor as the favorite right now for the second spot. The Bears have a win over Iowa State, and they have Texas and Oklahoma at home in November. Texas has the hardest road ahead, with a loss already to Oklahoma and road trips to both Baylor and Iowa State. Let’s review this weekend with the Team of the Week, the Most Disappointing Team and the Most Misleading Result.
Team of the Week – Baylor Midway through the third quarter, Baylor trailed 20-10. The Bears responded with a 35-7 run to finish the game. The Bears did it with big plays offensively and timely plays on defense. The Bears generated 536 total yards yesterday and 327 came on five plays. Charlie Brewer finished 13-17 passing for 312 yards. JaMycal Hasty rushed for 146 yards on 16 carries. The Bears struggled to move the ball in the second quarter but made the necessary blocking adjustments and moved the ball at will in the second half. The defense made their adjustments as they lost Clay Johnston last week and still forced 3 turnovers, one of which they scored on. Baylor’s defense was able to prevent big plays themselves, with one notable exception, but overall the D was terrific. Baylor came in as an underdog but left with a convincing victory.
Most Disappointing Performance – Texas The Horns needed a last second field goal. To beat Kansas. In Austin. The Horns did get the victory, but it sure did not feel like it. Texas was a three touchdown favorite but played with a hangover from last week. The Horns defense surrendered 569 yards, forced zero turnovers, and the offense turned it over twice. Sam Ehlinger threw for 399 yards, and the Horns did rush for 239 yards, so the offense overall performed well. This was truly an uninspired defensive effort from Texas and they will need to play much better in November.
Most Misleading Result – Kansas State over TCU I figured this would be an ugly game. I was right. I also thought TCU would win. I was wrong. K-State had 4 scoring drives in which they totaled 250 yards. The Cats totaled 16 total yards the rest of the game. A blocked punt set up their first touchdown, so special teams provided the difference for the second time this year. TCU now way out in front for most disappointing/most overrated team in the Big 12 this year.
Big 12 Notes
Iowa State has now won three games in a row by a combined score of 121-62. The Cyclones are averaging 456 yards per game in this stretch while surrendering an average of 309 yards/game. Last week, the Cyclones put away West Virginia with a 17-0 4th quarter. Yesterday, they jumped on Texas Tech 20-0 in the game’s first 20 minutes and never looked back. I look for the Cyclones to take care of Oklahoma State in Ames next week and enter November playing as well as anyone in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State committed three turnovers yesterday and have now committed 16 turnovers this season. West Virginia is second most in the league with 11 turnovers. Even if you remove the five turnover performance at Texas Tech, the Cowboys would still be tied for the league lead in turnovers. They are -9 in turnover differential. I’m guessing that this has a lot to do with why the Pokes are 1-3 in the Big 12 and out of the running for a spot in the championship game.
Texas leads the Big 12 in turnover differential at +5. This is even after the -2 turnover differential last night. Helps explain why Texas, with its rather porous defense, is still in the running in the Big 12. Baylor is second in the league in turnover differential at +3.
Are total plays a misleading stat? After yesterday, I am convinced. Both Baylor and Iowa State surrendered 86 plays to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, respectively. Baylor had 54 plays, ISU had 56. Each had a -30 or more in the total play category, yet each won convincingly. It was a combination of big plays by the offenses and preventing them by the defenses. ISU had 10 yards per play, while allowing just 4.7 YPP. Baylor had 9.9 YPP, while allowing 5.5. Those are some big differences. The thing I start pointing to is that defenses will tire, but both ISU and BU had strong defensive performances in the second half. It’s not the total plays, it’s the big plays.
Week 9 Preview
Byes: Baylor, West Virginia
Oklahoma at Kansas State – I look for the Sooners to roll here.
Texas at TCU – This will be interesting. I look for TCU to keep this close, but Texas will win in the end. Look for Sam Ehlinger to make a difference here versus the lack of effective quarterbacking at TCU. This could be a relatively high scoring game. From a betting perspective, I expect to see Texas favored in all its remaining games. If that is the case, I expect to see some terrific betting opportunities by fading the Longhorns.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State – I look for the Cyclones to take care of business here. OSU will score some on this ISU defense, but in the end it’s too much ISU. Look for the Cyclones to win by double digits in what could be a high scoring game.
Texas Tech at Kansas – Tech coming off back to back losses while KU has every reason to be optimistic after giving Texas a scare. The Jayhawks return home, but I look for the Tech offense to roll here and come away with the victory. It will be a very bumpy road back for the Jayhawks