For the past couple of seasons we have posted computer projected lines at pregame.com. Games where there was of difference of more than 3 points saw our computer lines actually beat the Vegas line at a 224-176-10 (56%) clip the last three years. That’s pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping in some seasons. Last week’s plays went 4-6 and now the record for this year is 42-34-1. Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Of the 14 games where our computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line (highlighted), our favorite team this week to back would be Appalachian St -15.
The Comp column is the computer projected line and the Diff column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
| Thursday, October 17th |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
| 305 UL-Lafayette |
|
|
|
| 306 Arkansas State |
+6.5 |
+3.4 |
+3.1 |
| 307 UCLA |
|
|
|
| 308 Stanford |
-3.5 |
-7.1 |
-3.6 |
| Friday, October 18th |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
| 309 Marshall |
|
|
|
| 310 Florida Atlantic |
-5.5 |
-3.6 |
+1.9 |
| 311 Pittsburgh |
|
|
|
| 312 Syracuse |
+3.5 |
-0.7 |
+4.2 |
| 313 Ohio State |
|
|
|
| 314 Northwestern |
+28 |
+22.6 |
+5.4 |
| 315 UNLV |
|
|
|
| 316 Fresno State |
-16 |
-17.3 |
-1.3 |
| Saturday, October 19th |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
| 317 Duke |
|
|
|
| 318 Virginia |
-3 |
-7.1 |
-4.1 |
| 319 Georgia Tech |
|
|
|
| 320 Miami (FL) |
-18 |
-20.6 |
-2.6 |
| 321 Clemson |
|
|
|
| 322 Louisville |
+24 |
+24.3 |
-0.3 |
| 323 Army |
|
|
|
| 324 Georgia State |
+5 |
+5.7 |
-0.7 |
| 325 Buffalo |
|
|
|
| 326 Akron |
+17.5 |
+14.9 |
+2.6 |
| 327 Indiana |
|
|
|
| 328 Maryland |
+5.5 |
+3.3 |
+2.2 |
| 329 Houston |
|
|
|
| 330 Connecticut |
+22 |
+19.3 |
+2.7 |
| 331 Florida State |
|
|
|
| 332 Wake Forest |
-2 |
+1.8 |
+3.8 |
| 333 Coastal Carolina |
|
|
|
| 334 Georgia Southern |
-6.5 |
-7.8 |
-1.3 |
| 335 Central Michigan |
|
|
|
| 336 Bowling Green |
+11 |
+8.2 |
+2.8 |
| 337 East Carolina |
|
|
|
| 338 Central Florida |
-33 |
-31.2 |
+1.8 |
| 339 Tulsa |
|
|
|
| 340 Cincinnati |
-17 |
-18.6 |
-1.6 |
| 341 NC State |
|
|
|
| 342 Boston College |
+3.5 |
+3.0 |
+0.5 |
| 343 Purdue |
|
|
|
| 344 Iowa |
-17.5 |
-19.6 |
-2.1 |
| 345 Kent State |
|
|
|
| 346 Ohio |
-7.5 |
-9.4 |
-1.9 |
| 347 Western Michigan |
|
|
|
| 348 Eastern Michigan |
+9 |
+8.4 |
+0.6 |
| 349 Kansas |
|
|
|
| 350 Texas |
-21.5 |
-26.9 |
-5.4 |
| 351 Wisconsin |
|
|
|
| 352 Illinois |
+31 |
+26.6 |
+4.4 |
| 353 Nevada |
|
|
|
| 354 Utah State |
-21 |
-19.6 |
+1.4 |
| 355 Boise St |
|
|
|
| 356 BYU |
+6.5 |
+5.6 |
+0.9 |
| 357 New Mexico |
|
|
|
| 358 Wyoming |
-19.5 |
-20.0 |
-0.5 |
| 359 Arizona State |
|
|
|
| 360 Utah |
-13.5 |
-13.1 |
+0.4 |
| 361 Toledo |
|
|
|
| 362 Ball St |
+1 |
+1.9 |
-0.9 |
| 363 Northern Illinois |
|
|
|
| 364 Miami (OH) |
+2.5 |
+0.9 |
+1.6 |
| 365 Oregon State |
|
|
|
| 366 California |
-11 |
-11.6 |
-0.6 |
| 367 Oregon |
|
|
|
| 368 Washington |
+3 |
+0.2 |
+2.8 |
| 369 Arizona |
|
|
|
| 370 USC |
-9.5 |
-11.5 |
-2.0 |
| 371 Colorado |
|
|
|
| 372 Washington State |
-13 |
-12.3 |
+0.7 |
| 373 Florida |
|
|
|
| 374 South Carolina |
+5 |
+5.2 |
-0.2 |
| 375 Kentucky |
|
|
|
| 376 Georgia |
-25 |
-27.8 |
-2.8 |
| 377 TCU |
|
|
|
| 378 Kansas State |
+3.5 |
-1.6 |
+5.1 |
| 379 LSU |
|
|
|
| 380 Mississippi State |
+18.5 |
+14.3 |
+4.2 |
| 381 Tennessee |
|
|
|
| 382 Alabama |
-34.5 |
-35.9 |
-1.4 |
| 383 Southern Miss |
|
|
|
| 384 Louisiana Tech |
+1 |
-0.8 |
+1.8 |
| 385 Old Dominion |
|
|
|
| 386 UAB |
-16 |
-14.1 |
+1.9 |
| 387 West Virginia |
|
|
|
| 388 Oklahoma |
-33.5 |
-33.2 |
+0.3 |
| 389 Baylor |
|
|
|
| 390 Oklahoma State |
-3.5 |
-5.5 |
-2.0 |
| 391 Auburn |
|
|
|
| 392 Arkansas |
+19 |
+19.4 |
-0.4 |
| 393 Texas A&M |
|
|
|
| 394 Mississippi |
+6.5 |
+4.8 |
+1.7 |
| 395 Tulane |
|
|
|
| 396 Memphis |
-4.5 |
-6.4 |
-1.9 |
| 397 North Carolina |
|
|
|
| 398 Virginia Tech |
+3.5 |
+0.5 |
+3.0 |
| 399 Minnesota |
|
|
|
| 400 Rutgers |
+28.5 |
+27.0 |
+1.5 |
| 401 Iowa State |
|
|
|
| 402 Texas Tech |
+7 |
+6.5 |
+0.5 |
| 403 South Florida |
|
|
|
| 404 Navy |
-14 |
-8.8 |
+5.2 |
| 405 UL-Monroe |
|
|
|
| 406 Appalachian State |
-15 |
-21.3 |
-6.3 |
| 407 Missouri |
|
|
|
| 408 Vanderbilt |
+21 |
+18.4 |
+2.6 |
| 409 San Diego State |
|
|
|
| 410 San Jose State |
+7.5 |
+8.4 |
-0.9 |
| 411 Charlotte |
|
|
|
| 412 Western Kentucky |
-9 |
-9.6 |
-0.6 |
| 413 Middle Tennessee |
|
|
|
| 414 North Texas |
-8 |
-7.4 |
+0.6 |
| 415 Rice |
|
|
|
| 416 Texas San Antonio |
+4.5 |
+1.3 |
+3.2 |
| 417 Temple |
|
|
|
| 418 SMU |
-7.5 |
-7.3 |
+0.2 |
| 419 UTEP |
|
|
|
| 420 FIU |
-24 |
-22.2 |
+1.8 |
| 421 Michigan |
|
|
|
| 422 Penn State |
-9 |
-9.5 |
-0.5 |
| 423 Air Force |
|
|
|
| 424 Hawaii |
+3 |
+0.1 |
+2.9 |