Houston +24.5 - 1 unit - WIN
Houston +24 (-125) - 1.5 unit - WIN
Houston +23.5 1 unit - WIN
Houston ML (+1000) 1/2 unit - LOSS
Let's start with why OU may have trouble in this contest:
Oklahoma has had two heisman QB's in a row - We give Riley all the credit, but how much was those two? Hurts was good at Bama, but will he thrive without the defensive help? How close is Hurts to the two former QB's? I say not anywhere close.
Oklahoma also returns only one offensive linemen, while four were drafted. The lone returning starter is only a Soph. he was a fresh all american, but without upperclassmen experience, may take them a bit to gel. We know they recruit at a high level, but we all know the line is very important. Now we have a brand new offensive line, with a brand new QB.
Part of the reason the line is too high is what OU did last year in the opener to FAU. FAU was a trendy pick at +28 and they got destroyed. This won't happen this year with the major changes to the OU offense. With all the talk about the OU QB from last couple years to Hurts, let's also acknowledge how good the QB for Houston is. King has cemented himself as a quality QB and play maker within this offense and shouldn't miss a beat with Dana considering the offensive output numbers below. King and this offense will move the ball and have success against a suspect OU D.
In his first full year as the starter, King went 36-6 TD/INT.
(Robison for FAU was not good against OU and poor all season 12/12 td/int)
Compelling numbers:
Football outsiders def efficiency skewed to competition:
OU - #100
Houston - #104
West Va #57
Def Yards per play:
OU - 95th
Houston - 91st
-west Va - 76th
Off Yards per play
-OU - #1
-Houston - #13
-West Va - #8
We can see that both metrics don't lend us any confidence in OU's defense. These numbers also force the idea that the OU offensive line and Hurts have to be just as good as Murray and that line from last year. If there is a drop off, which I think there will be, we can assert this line is too high, even after it dropped from 27.
Let's also talk motivation for Houston as a program and school. Houston has made it no secret they want to join the big 12. From what I gather, the program and city looks at themselves as that tier of program. Combine that with Holgersen coming from a BIG 12 school and those two have a strong correlation of max effort in this game. Also remember, Houston beat Mayfield and #5 OU a couple years ago to start the season as well, so there is no intimidation factor.
On top of the Dana factor, they also have a new defensive coordinator from Ark St. While we know a change in philosophy, scheme, etc takes time. This coordinator had the Red Wolves being very aggressive with impressive sack and TFL numbers. To me, this goes to the fact that Houston can't get much worse on defense and this could be a shot in the arm for game number one.
Overall OU probably wins this game, but the solid offensive play from King and this offense will keep this game close throughout. I look for a 14-20 point OU win.
Utah/BYU UNDER 48.5 - WIN
Ohio State -27.5 vs FAU - LOSS
Ohio State -17 FIRST HALF - WIN
ohio st tt over 47 - LOSS
ISU FIRST HALF UNDER 23 - WIN
ISU GAME UNDER - LOSS (triple OT, ugh...)
So, like many, had some tough beats and curious play by some teams. Highlighted so far is the fumble called back for UCLA, Northwestern fumbling in the end zone, Ohio State able to name their score after 4 quick TD's, then completely took their foot off the gas for 3.5 quarters, and of course my boys playing close to the vest and it almost bite them in the butt...
With that, I added to my OU bet for tonight with some additional reasons.
The main reason I feel more optimistic today is a gut reaction to the play of what has happened these few days. We have seen big favorites blow leads for one reason or another. We could scroll through the list, but I believe everyone has examples they can pull. You are giving me a top ten offense to aid in this idea that big leads and spreads aren't safe. To be redundant, we have a terrible defense last year for OU, combined with learning a new scheme, while facing a top ten offense.
Please correct me, but I have a suspicion public will back the favorite today, especially if they took it on the chin yesterday like many of us.
I also want to look at Hurts and what surrounded him his two years starting at Bama. His defense gave up:
2016 - 11.7 PPG
2017 - 11.5 PPG
(both excluding play off games)
Diving deeper into the impact of new OU def coordinator Grinch:
Ohio State took a step back defensively last year.
Def Yards per rush:
2017: 3rd
2018: 75th
Overall def Yards per play:
2017: 4th
2018: 64th.
I understand personnel changes among other variables, but if we are looking at immediate impact, this may not pay dividends for OU right off the bat, especially first game. Also keep in mind he is big on being aggressive and forcing turnovers. King only had 6 INT last year.
The more I look into it, the more Houston makes this interesting and will have a shot at the upset.
As always, I hope this helps one way or another and BOL to everyone moving forward.