Iowa State wins the Big 12 - 2 units +1050
Iowa State makes the four team play-off - 1 unit +5000
Other wagers to date:
Iowa State -2 vs Iowa - 4 units
Iowa State +3 vs Texas - 4 units
Adding Iowa winning the big ten west - 1 unit currently +450. Analysis to come.
Why does Iowa State win the big 12 and have an outside chance at the four team play off?
First, let's dive into Matt Campbell over the first three years.
It makes sense that Iowa State struggled his first year at the helm. A lot of turnover and change in the attitude and type of player he wanted in the program. Similar to any new coach and staff. What has happened since then is nothing short of amazing. We all know Campbell has taken a program that has been bottom 10 for years and years and the past two, have had Iowa State in contention for the BIG 12 championship game.
To review last year:
Struggled with first game canceled, then immediately at Iowa and lost 13-3.
With back up Noland, lost to OU by ten, lackluster win against Akron and a last second loss @ TCU.
Enter Brock Purdy. Purdy led Iowa State to a 7-2 record. Not bad for a kid coming in mid-season as a True Freshman. He has had some slow starts, see WVU, and Wash St. However, a big stat to keep in mind is he was 6th in the nation in Passer Rating last year. Also note that Bama and Texas A&M recruited this kid. Expect big things from him and this offense this year.
To dive a bit deeper on Purdy, Kyle Kempt, known for beating OU two years ago told Campbell to play Purdy, knowing full well he wouldn't play. He did it anyways because he knew Purdy was ready. Why is this important? Kyle Kempt has been hired to the Iowa State staff this coming year. Purdy has a great coaching staff and support.
Iowa State's weakness for years has been the offensive line. This was no exception last year. Plenty of stats on how Montgomery made something out of nothing because the line never helped him or opened holes. Why might this year be different? They rank top five in returning starts and all five guys are back from last year. The whole group with another to grow under Campbell, gain continuity, etc. makes me optimistic.
The main thought among national media is the loss of Montgomery and Butler. No doubt two tremendous player makers (I think if a nonQB wins off rookie of year, it will be DM.) There are three reasons I am not as worried as most:
1. Depth. Iowa State has not had the depth before. Watch Jones and Milton at the WR spots, along with Arkansas leading WR, Pettway.
2. Two potential NFL Tight ends. Kolar and Allen are both 6'6 and huge frames. They can high point a ball. Look for Iowa State to use the tight ends more this year.
3. Tom Manning is back. He was the OC for two years and has been with Campbell since Toledo. He left for one year to coach the TE's for the Colts. He called Campbell to ask if he could come back as the OC. That doesn't happen. We can all speculate, is it that close knit of group, did he just like college more, did he go to get experience and come back? Who knows, but Manning had this ISU offense rolling when he was here, and now he gets Purdy and company.
The defensive side of the ball:
They are just plain nasty. First and foremost, the depth on this team is again like nothing Iowa State has ever seen. The pass rushing in Bailey and Uwazurike will be highlighted a lot, but watch for Will McDonald. True fresh last year who played in four games and is an athletic freak. Look for him to make some noise.
Also, note Ray Lima. Top tier DT in the game and nobody talks about him. In the 3-3-5, he constantly takes on double teams and will play on Sundays. The beautiful thing is he was out against WVU last year and the D still dominated.
Overall, Phil Steele had the front seven rated top 5-7 in the nation. Pretty good for Campbell in four years...
The safety spot is secured and Eisworth is a BIG 12 first team level player. The only concern is losing two starting corners, including Brian Peavy. To this I can only come back to the depth and scheme Iowa State and DC Heacock has established. Don't get beat deep, keep the offense in front and tackle. I feel confident Campbell will only only players who want to do the little things.
As everyone has seen, I have a wager on Iowa State -2 against Iowa (now 3.5) and +3 home to TX (think they win outright.) If you look at the big 12 landscape:
Kansas and KSU will struggle and don't see them giving Iowa State a scare
Iowa State is 8-0 in October last two years (home to Ok ST and TCU, @ WVU and Tech)
Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor are the three question marks. I think they beat Texas, so we have a max of two losses. Baylor and their lack of depth should be a win and I really want to see how the OU D and Riley do without a Heisman caliber QB to run the show. Am I predicting an outright win for ISU vs OU? No, but I would love to see that rematch in a big 12 title game.
To broaden my post, why does Iowa State make their way into a play off? If they go 12-1 and big 12 champs with a dominating D and a QB that is a household name at the end of the season, with a coach who everyone will be predicting the 18 jobs he will take the following season, could be good for the sport.
We assume Bama and Clemson. Pac 12 has struggled and it has been Big 12 and Big ten. Look for Iowa State to be a team that rises up this year.
Food for Thought: West Va was picked third last year and was a dark horse to win the conference. They started 6-0 before being throttled by Iowa State. Still beat Texas, lost in two shoot outs to Ok ST and OU. Iowa State is in the same position and both top two teams are vulnerable.
Overall, this defense has made a name for itself last year and will only get better. Purdy and this offense will take a step forward with a supportive coaching staff and a very good offensive coordinator back this year. More depth and experience through out this offense. Take into account I believe they win against Iowa and it sets up nicely to be a special season.
Starting to look into Iowa Hawkeyes winning the West and potentially the Big ten giving the state of the other West teams. Stay tuned.
As always, I keep my posts objective as possible. Hope everyone finds good use for these posts about the Clones and the BIG 12 this coming season.