Since I don’t handicap baseball, the summer months give me ample time to go through all 130 FBS teams team with a fine tooth comb for the upcoming college football season.
One of the methods I use in coming up with some initial power ratings for each team are my position-by-position “Up/Downs.” Basically, I go through every position of every team and give a value of “-3 to +3” for QBs, RBs, WR/TE, OL, DL, LBs, DBs, Special Teams, Coaches and Intangibles.
A team with a “+3” for a single position means that I have that position power-rated up three points from the previous season. A good example for this year would be Virginia Tech’s defensive backs. Last year they lost three starters and then two projected starters were out for the year during the summer. Now this year the entire unit two-deep returns including seven players who have earned starts.
A team with a “-3” for a single position means that I have that position power-rated down three points from the previous season. A good example for this year would be Mississippi State’s defensive line. Last year they returned all 4 starters and allowed just 95 rushing yards per game (lowest since 1999). This year they lose all 4 starters including a pair of players that went in the first round of the NFL Draft. Clearly, they are less experienced and far less talented!
With 10 different categories, the maximum value a team can be up or down from the previous season is 30. That +30 or -30 points rarely, if ever, happens and the only example I can give you in the last 10 years of a team being nearly 4 TD’s different (power ratings wise) from the previous season is UCF in 2015. The Knights went 0-12 (-24 ppg) in 2015 following a 9-4 season where they were +9 ppg. I had them power-rated 27 points lower by the end of the season. The next closest was Louisville last year who went from 8-5 in 2017 (+11 ppg) to 2-10 (-24 ppg) in 2018. I had them power-rated down about 24 points from the beginning of the season.
Below are my “Up/Downs” for every position on every team. For the coach’s category (CCH), new coaches can sometimes be downgraded because they are new to that program and don’t know the strengths and weaknesses of the players yet. Also they could be installing new schemes on offense and/or defense and the current players might not fit their styles of play (see Georgia Tech going away from the option offense).
Finally, the intangibles category covers a broad range of categories including Close Wins/Losses from the previous year, Strength of Schedule (is it weaker or stronger from last year?), Turnovers, Offensive and Defensive Yards per play, etc. A team like Georgia Southern was graded “-2.5” in that category because they benefited from 3 wins by 7 points or less last year, were +22 in TO's and were actually out-gained in conference play by 19 ypg despite a 6-2 record.
As you can see Louisville, Florida St and Virginia Tech who were all off historically bad seasons have the highest “plus” grades. Massachusetts with only 8 starters back and lose their top 2 passers, top 3 rushers, top 2 tacklers and an All-American at WR in Andy Isabella are at the bottom of the chart.
Rank |
Team |
QB |
RB |
REC |
OL |
DL |
LB |
DB |
ST's |
CCH |
INT |
Total |
1 |
Louisville |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
12 |
2 |
Florida State |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
-1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
10 |
3 |
Virginia Tech |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
Oregon State |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
9 |
4 |
UCLA |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
9 |
6 |
Tennessee |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
-2 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
8.5 |
7 |
Western Michigan |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
Michigan State |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
7.5 |
8 |
Western Kentucky |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
-2 |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
8 |
Hawaii |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
8 |
Arkansas |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
7.5 |
12 |
Minnesota |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
6.5 |
13 |
Kent State |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
13 |
Texas State |
0.5 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
6 |
15 |
Baylor |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
15 |
LSU |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
5.5 |
17 |
USF |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
5 |
17 |
Illinois |
-0.5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
17 |
Indiana |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
17 |
Air Force |
1 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
2 |
0.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
17 |
Georgia State |
1 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
-1 |
0 |
0.5 |
5 |
22 |
East Carolina |
1.5 |
0.5 |
-1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
22 |
Nebraska |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
22 |
Oregon |
0.5 |
1 |
0 |
1.5 |
1 |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
25 |
Tulsa |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
4 |
25 |
Wisconsin |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-2 |
2 |
-2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0.5 |
4 |
25 |
Liberty |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
4 |
25 |
New Mexico State |
1 |
1.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
4 |
25 |
USC |
2 |
0 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
4 |
30 |
SMU |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
3.5 |
30 |
Rutgers |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
30 |
Arizona |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
33 |
Connecticut |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
33 |
TCU |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
33 |
Southern Miss |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
2 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
0 |
3 |
33 |
UTSA |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
-2 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
3 |
33 |
BYU |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
33 |
Ball State |
-1 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
3 |
39 |
Coastal Carolina |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
2.5 |
39 |
UL-Lafayette |
-1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
2.5 |
41 |
North Carolina |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
41 |
Iowa State |
1 |
-2 |
-1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
41 |
San Jose State |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-1 |
2.5 |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
-2 |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
41 |
Auburn |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
-1 |
2 |
0.5 |
-2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
2 |
45 |
Houston |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
45 |
Virginia |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
45 |
UTEP |
0.5 |
1 |
-1.5 |
2.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
45 |
Louisiana Tech |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
45 |
Charlotte |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
45 |
Florida |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
-2.5 |
1 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
45 |
Ole Miss |
-1 |
1 |
-2.5 |
-2 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
45 |
South Carolina |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
53 |
Tulane |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
53 |
Central Michigan |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
1 |
-1.5 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
53 |
Colorado State |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
53 |
San Diego State |
1 |
1.5 |
-2 |
1 |
-2 |
-1 |
2 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
53 |
Georgia |
0 |
1 |
-2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
58 |
Navy |
1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
58 |
FIU |
1 |
1 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
60 |
Oklahoma State |
-1 |
-1 |
1.5 |
1 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
60 |
Florida Atlantic |
1 |
-2 |
0 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0 |
60 |
Rice |
0 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
-2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
60 |
Utah |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
-1 |
1.5 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
Arkansas State |
-2.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
60 |
UL-Monroe |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
66 |
Cincinnati |
1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
66 |
Kansas State |
1 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
1 |
1 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-0.5 |
66 |
Michigan |
1 |
-1.5 |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
66 |
UNLV |
0.5 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
66 |
Appalachian State |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
71 |
Memphis |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
-2 |
1 |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
-1 |
0.5 |
-1 |
71 |
Temple |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
71 |
Oklahoma |
-1 |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
-1.5 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
71 |
Penn State |
-2 |
-1 |
0.5 |
-1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
71 |
Marshall |
1.5 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
71 |
Alabama |
-0.5 |
-1 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
77 |
Bowling Green |
-2.5 |
1 |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
77 |
Duke |
-1.5 |
1 |
-2.5 |
1 |
1 |
-2 |
1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
1 |
-1.5 |
77 |
Miami, Fl |
1 |
-1 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-1.5 |
77 |
Northwestern |
-0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
77 |
Purdue |
-1 |
-1.5 |
1 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
0 |
0 |
-1.5 |
77 |
New Mexico |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-1.5 |
77 |
Wyoming |
2 |
-1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
1 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
0 |
-1.5 |
77 |
California |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
-1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
85 |
UCF |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-2 |
85 |
Boise State |
-2 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-2 |
85 |
Arizona State |
-2 |
0.5 |
-1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
85 |
South Alabama |
-1 |
1 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
89 |
Pittsburgh |
1.5 |
-2.5 |
1 |
-2 |
-1 |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-2.5 |
89 |
Syracuse |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
89 |
Wake Forest |
1 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
-2.5 |
89 |
Ohio State |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
89 |
Toledo |
1 |
0.5 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
0 |
0 |
-2.5 |
89 |
Colorado |
0.5 |
-2 |
1 |
1 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-2.5 |
95 |
Texas Tech |
0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
95 |
Iowa |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-2 |
0.5 |
-2.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
-1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-3 |
95 |
Northern Illinois |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2 |
2 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-3 |
95 |
Akron |
1 |
-0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-3 |
95 |
Eastern Michigan |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
95 |
Washington State |
-1 |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
-3 |
95 |
Texas A&M |
0.5 |
-2 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-3 |
102 |
Clemson |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Texas |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
-2 |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Maryland |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
0.5 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Old Dominion |
-0.5 |
1 |
-2.5 |
-1 |
-2 |
1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Miami, Oh |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Nevada |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Stanford |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
-1 |
1 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Mississippi State |
-1.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
-1 |
-3 |
2 |
-2 |
1 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Missouri |
-0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-3.5 |
102 |
Vanderbilt |
-2 |
0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-3.5 |
112 |
North Texas |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-2 |
-1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-4 |
112 |
Middle Tennessee |
-2.5 |
1 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-4 |
112 |
Ohio |
0.5 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-4 |
112 |
Georgia Southern |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
1 |
0.5 |
-2.5 |
-4 |
112 |
Troy |
0.5 |
1 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-4 |
117 |
Army |
0.5 |
-1 |
0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-2 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-4.5 |
117 |
Washington |
-1 |
-1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-2 |
-2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-4.5 |
119 |
Georgia Tech |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
-1.5 |
-2.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
1 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-5 |
119 |
Kansas |
-1 |
0 |
-1.5 |
0 |
-2 |
-2 |
1 |
-0.5 |
1 |
0 |
-5 |
119 |
Notre Dame |
1 |
-1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
0 |
-1.5 |
-5 |
122 |
NC State |
-2.5 |
-1 |
-2 |
-2 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-6 |
123 |
Boston College |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-7 |
123 |
Fresno State |
-2 |
1.5 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
1 |
0 |
-2 |
-7 |
123 |
Kentucky |
1.5 |
-2 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
-3 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
-7 |
126 |
Buffalo |
-2 |
1 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-8 |
127 |
UAB |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-2 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
0 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-8.5 |
128 |
Utah State |
0.5 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
-9 |
129 |
West Virginia |
-2 |
1 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
-1.5 |
-9.5 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
-2 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
-11 |