A couple of weeks ago, I released my initial top three best bets for 2019 win totals, based on the early numbers released for top programs only. ICYMI, you can see why I selected Michigan State OVER 7.5, Texas A&M OVER 7.5, and Mississippi State UNDER 8 here.
And now, with the season only 57 days away, oddsmakers have released their win total numbers for every FBS team (which you can read here). Here are the rest of my best bets, which I've selected based on where there's the biggest discrepancy between my projections and the current market price.
My numbers have this the best roster Pat Narduzzi has had yet, and I believe the Panthers won the division title a year ahead of schedule in 2018.
The Cavs come into the season with the best quarterback in the ACC not named Trevor Lawrence, and a lot of momentum after a surprising bowl game rout.
The schedule is simply too manageable, and the defensive front seven too good, to a 50% decline in wins from last year's breakout season.
My numbers have the Red Raiders power-rated the 8th best team in the Big 12, so it's tough to see them getting to seven wins given that. Especially with a new coaching staff.
Arizona State UNDER 7.5 (bestest bet #1)
The Sun Devils have the worst depth in the Pac-12, and with a road game at Michigan State and the loss of their senior quarterback, I don't see how they have a better season this year than they did a year ago.
This reminds of a year ago, when LSU's coaching staff was expected to be broomed after the season so a very talented roster had a similar win total.
Missouri OVER 6.5 (bestest bet #2)
There won't be that much of a drop-off from Drew Lock to Kelly Bryant, the rest of the roster is fairly experienced, and the schedule pretty favorable.
For the second year in a row I'm picking the Hogs under the total as a best bet. They have the worst depth in the SEC, and I have them power-rated 13th in the league.
You can see from the high buy price on the over that this ridiculously low line was just set to get action on a team the public largely ignores. But remember, better to pay more to win a little than pay a little to lose a lot.
I have the Irish power-rated No.9 in the country, and while I agree the schedule is more difficult than last year, I don't see them losing more than three games.
Those are my baker's dozen win total best bets for 2019, including the previous three I previously posted here. I'm 8-3 (72%) since I started offering these two years ago.