Got these win totals for 2019. Much like last year, I will concentrate my efforts on the Big 12, as this is the geographical area I live in and I follow it more closely than the others. I start off with my takes on how I see the win totals shaking out this season. This is from Fan Duel, so take it for what it's worth. I will follow up in the next few days with my commentary as to how I reached my conclusions. Hope everyone is having a great summer!
- Oklahoma: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +112) Under
- Texas: 9.5 (Over +102, Under -120) Under
- Iowa State: 8 (Over +106, Under -124) Over
- TCU: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +102) Under
- Baylor: 6.5 (Over -168, Under +144) Over
- Oklahoma State: 6.5 (Over -130, Under +110) Over
- Texas Tech: 6.5 (Over +116, Under -136) Over
- Kansas State: 5.5 (Over -108, Under -108) Under
- West Virginia: 5 (Over -146, Under +124) Under
- Kansas: 3.5 (Over +186, Under -225) Over
Follow-Up Commentary
Best QB's in the league. I'm going total contrarian here and saying Brock Purdy (ISU) and Charlie Brewer (BU).
Sleeper Team - Texas Tech
Most Overrated Team - Right now, it's between TCU and Texas. I think OU will be fine in spite of my concerns.
Oklahoma - I'm not as high on OU as a lot of people appear to be. I'm not totally sold on Jalen Hurts. Was he the beneficiary of a great defense at Alabama? He won't get the defensive support at OU that he had at Alabama. Hurts will have to make plays. OU only returns one starter on the O-Line. This is a key metric going into the season. The Sooners do return some key skill position players and Lincoln Riley is a terrific QB coach. Still, doesn't feel to me like it did last year, when there was more to like about Kyler Murray, in my opinion.
Texas - Only 3 starters back from a rather pedestrian defense last year. Sam Ehlinger is back at QB, but I don't see him as a big play guy. The O/U at 9.5 could come down to the Iowa State game - which is in November in Ames, IA. Cold won't be a problem, but the wind could be.
Iowa State - Eight starters back on each side of the ball, 16 in total. Lots of experience, all 5 O-Line starters back. I love Brock Purdy at QB, could end up being the best QB in the Big 12. Plus, best returning defensive unit in the Big 12. I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up in the Big 12 championship game. Key game is conference opener at Baylor. Waco in September is no fun unless you like heat and lots of stifling humidity. But, win that game, and that sets up a run to the championship game, with a November home game against Texas looming very large.
Baylor - Another up and coming team. They do need to get a whole lot better on defense. Offense will be potent with Charlie Brewer at QB, and possibly the best WR unit in the Big 12. Turnovers have been a problem on offense. Special teams still a point of concern. Eight starters back on offense, seven on defense. Key game will be conference opener at home against Iowa State. Other key games will be road games at TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
TCU - They have lots of questions at QB, in my opinion. Everybody says that just because it's Gary Patterson, things will be ok. They were not good at QB last year, and they will be relying on transfers this year. If they get the QB play, they could be really good on offense. If not, they will struggle. Defense returns just 5 starters and they lose 7 of their top 8 tacklers.
Among the lower echelon teams, I will keep my eye on Texas Tech. They have a new coach, so there could be some growing pains. I didn't think they were that far off last year. Plenty of starters back (14 I think).