Hey Guys,
I hope you've all had a great spring so far. I've been hard at work already on the 2019 CFB season and have come up with an initial set of power ratings for all 130 FBS teams. Naturally, this is a fluid number at this point as I continue to go through each team position-by-position. However, baring any major injuries or suspensions over the summer and during fall camp, I don't anticipate these ratings changing much more than a 0.5-point or so in the next couple of months. This early set of power ratings takes into consideration the amount of returning production, the number of returning starters and other key factors (turnovers, close wins/losses, recruiting, etc). As soon as I finish my position "up/downs" for each team...I'll post my next set of ratings in early July.
To come up with a point spread all you have to do is subtract two team's power ratings. For example, if Alabama were playing Clemson on a neutral field, I would have the Crimson Tide (power rating 99.78) favored by 1-point over the Tigers (power rating 98.72). I usually award about 3-points for home field advantage.
Note that I included the final power rating from last season so you can know how much I've upgraded/downgraded each team. Feel free to ask me any questions.
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Rating Last Year
|
Rating This Year
|
Diff |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC |
102.80 |
99.78 |
-3.02 |
2 |
Clemson |
ACC |
103.04 |
98.72 |
-4.32 |
3 |
Georgia |
SEC |
93.18 |
93.88 |
0.70 |
4 |
LSU |
SEC |
85.24 |
91.41 |
6.17 |
5 |
Oklahoma |
Big 12 |
90.83 |
90.53 |
-0.30 |
6 |
Michigan |
Big Ten |
89.01 |
89.72 |
0.71 |
7 |
Ohio State |
Big Ten |
91.03 |
88.90 |
-2.13 |
8 |
Florida |
SEC |
83.68 |
88.18 |
4.50 |
9 |
Auburn |
SEC |
84.27 |
87.32 |
3.05 |
10 |
Notre Dame |
Indep |
89.75 |
86.90 |
-2.85 |
11 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
84.23 |
85.24 |
1.00 |
12 |
Michigan State |
Big Ten |
78.55 |
85.12 |
6.57 |
13 |
Oregon |
Pac-12 |
78.48 |
84.95 |
6.46 |
14 |
Penn State |
Big Ten |
82.07 |
84.14 |
2.07 |
15 |
Mississippi State |
SEC |
84.77 |
83.31 |
-1.46 |
16 |
Wisconsin |
Big Ten |
78.14 |
83.13 |
4.99 |
17 |
Washington |
Pac-12 |
84.26 |
83.13 |
-1.13 |
18 |
Utah |
Pac-12 |
79.16 |
82.83 |
3.67 |
19 |
Texas |
Big 12 |
83.43 |
82.33 |
-1.10 |
20 |
Missouri |
SEC |
83.05 |
81.99 |
-1.06 |
21 |
Iowa |
Big Ten |
82.20 |
81.90 |
-0.30 |
22 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
76.97 |
80.71 |
3.74 |
23 |
Iowa State |
Big 12 |
78.81 |
80.54 |
1.73 |
24 |
Nebraska |
Big Ten |
76.17 |
80.38 |
4.21 |
25 |
Miami (FL) |
ACC |
77.86 |
79.95 |
2.08 |
26 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
70.55 |
79.62 |
9.07 |
27 |
Washington State |
Pac-12 |
81.69 |
79.54 |
-2.15 |
28 |
USC |
Pac-12 |
74.88 |
79.52 |
4.64 |
29 |
Florida State |
ACC |
72.54 |
79.16 |
6.61 |
30 |
Stanford |
Pac-12 |
79.68 |
78.95 |
-0.73 |
31 |
UCF |
AAC |
76.66 |
78.76 |
2.10 |
32 |
Minnesota |
Big Ten |
72.83 |
78.56 |
5.73 |
33 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
71.28 |
78.39 |
7.11 |
34 |
Oklahoma State |
Big 12 |
78.99 |
78.31 |
-0.68 |
35 |
TCU |
Big 12 |
74.01 |
77.79 |
3.78 |
36 |
Virginia |
ACC |
77.03 |
77.46 |
0.43 |
37 |
Baylor |
Big 12 |
70.94 |
77.41 |
6.47 |
38 |
Cincinnati |
AAC |
72.73 |
77.21 |
4.48 |
39 |
Boise State |
MW |
77.93 |
77.15 |
-0.78 |
40 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
78.92 |
77.09 |
-1.83 |
41 |
Memphis |
AAC |
74.26 |
76.43 |
2.17 |
42 |
UCLA |
Pac-12 |
70.03 |
76.07 |
6.04 |
43 |
Arizona State |
Pac-12 |
75.77 |
76.05 |
0.28 |
44 |
Northwestern |
Big Ten |
77.39 |
75.74 |
-1.65 |
45 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
79.27 |
75.43 |
-3.84 |
46 |
Arizona |
Pac-12 |
71.88 |
74.97 |
3.09 |
47 |
Appalachian State |
Sun Belt |
75.15 |
74.70 |
-0.45 |
48 |
BYU |
Indep |
71.38 |
74.37 |
2.99 |
49 |
Texas Tech |
Big 12 |
76.56 |
74.32 |
-2.24 |
50 |
NC State |
ACC |
75.40 |
74.07 |
-1.33 |
51 |
Indiana |
Big Ten |
71.63 |
73.91 |
2.28 |
52 |
Purdue |
Big Ten |
76.25 |
73.44 |
-2.81 |
53 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
75.93 |
73.40 |
-2.53 |
54 |
California |
Pac-12 |
74.31 |
72.83 |
-1.48 |
55 |
West Virginia |
Big 12 |
77.94 |
72.72 |
-5.22 |
56 |
Ole Miss |
SEC |
71.30 |
72.02 |
0.72 |
57 |
Utah State |
MW |
77.88 |
71.71 |
-6.17 |
58 |
Kansas State |
Big 12 |
71.46 |
71.67 |
0.21 |
59 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
72.24 |
71.63 |
-0.61 |
60 |
Fresno State |
MW |
79.07 |
71.39 |
-7.68 |
61 |
Army |
Indep |
70.73 |
71.02 |
0.29 |
62 |
Duke |
ACC |
74.90 |
70.80 |
-4.10 |
63 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
67.69 |
70.66 |
2.97 |
64 |
Boston College |
ACC |
77.57 |
70.42 |
-7.15 |
65 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
71.55 |
70.22 |
-1.33 |
66 |
Maryland |
Big Ten |
73.54 |
69.84 |
-3.70 |
67 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
65.15 |
69.12 |
3.97 |
68 |
Colorado |
Pac-12 |
70.02 |
68.37 |
-1.65 |
69 |
San Diego State |
MW |
65.49 |
68.28 |
2.79 |
70 |
Houston |
AAC |
64.76 |
67.64 |
2.88 |
71 |
Marshall |
CUSA |
67.40 |
67.40 |
0.00 |
72 |
Temple |
AAC |
70.98 |
67.23 |
-3.75 |
73 |
FIU |
CUSA |
64.74 |
66.46 |
1.72 |
74 |
Ohio |
MAC |
72.11 |
66.14 |
-5.97 |
75 |
Air Force |
MW |
66.10 |
65.88 |
-0.22 |
76 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA |
61.85 |
65.83 |
3.98 |
77 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
75.86 |
65.81 |
-10.05 |
78 |
Western Michigan |
MAC |
59.47 |
65.52 |
6.05 |
79 |
Troy |
Sun Belt |
65.82 |
65.41 |
-0.41 |
80 |
USF |
AAC |
62.15 |
65.25 |
3.10 |
81 |
Toledo |
MAC |
65.34 |
64.95 |
-0.39 |
82 |
Arkansas State |
Sun Belt |
64.96 |
64.71 |
-0.25 |
83 |
Florida Atlantic |
CUSA |
66.83 |
64.61 |
-2.22 |
84 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA |
63.95 |
64.46 |
0.51 |
85 |
SMU |
AAC |
63.70 |
63.81 |
0.11 |
86 |
Georgia Southern |
Sun Belt |
62.72 |
63.74 |
1.02 |
87 |
North Texas |
CUSA |
64.26 |
63.61 |
-0.65 |
88 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC |
66.05 |
63.54 |
-2.51 |
89 |
Louisville |
ACC |
55.68 |
63.41 |
7.73 |
90 |
Tulane |
AAC |
65.69 |
62.86 |
-2.83 |
91 |
Illinois |
Big Ten |
59.23 |
62.85 |
3.62 |
92 |
Nevada |
MW |
65.12 |
62.55 |
-2.57 |
93 |
Hawaii |
MW |
57.33 |
61.40 |
4.07 |
94 |
Oregon State |
Pac-12 |
58.61 |
61.09 |
2.48 |
95 |
UAB |
CUSA |
69.07 |
60.97 |
-8.10 |
96 |
Tulsa |
AAC |
61.24 |
60.85 |
-0.39 |
97 |
Wyoming |
MW |
63.38 |
60.71 |
-2.67 |
98 |
Miami (OH) |
MAC |
67.03 |
60.27 |
-6.76 |
99 |
UL-Lafayette |
Sun Belt |
58.79 |
59.39 |
0.60 |
100 |
Middle Tennessee |
CUSA |
65.58 |
59.27 |
-6.31 |
101 |
Rutgers |
Big Ten |
55.95 |
58.68 |
2.73 |
102 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
67.12 |
58.41 |
-8.71 |
103 |
Western Kentucky |
CUSA |
56.14 |
58.16 |
2.02 |
104 |
Kansas |
Big 12 |
64.47 |
57.69 |
-6.78 |
105 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC |
64.29 |
57.67 |
-6.62 |
106 |
UNLV |
MW |
55.65 |
57.36 |
1.71 |
107 |
Navy |
AAC |
61.00 |
57.20 |
-3.80 |
108 |
UL-Monroe |
Sun Belt |
56.48 |
56.55 |
0.07 |
109 |
Ball State |
MAC |
52.27 |
54.80 |
2.53 |
110 |
Colorado State |
MW |
54.55 |
54.21 |
-0.34 |
111 |
Kent State |
MAC |
50.72 |
54.18 |
3.46 |
112 |
Liberty |
Indep |
53.65 |
53.75 |
0.10 |
113 |
Charlotte |
CUSA |
55.83 |
53.47 |
-2.36 |
114 |
East Carolina |
AAC |
52.84 |
53.44 |
0.60 |
115 |
Texas State |
Sun Belt |
48.32 |
53.29 |
4.97 |
116 |
Coastal Carolina |
Sun Belt |
52.35 |
51.91 |
-0.44 |
117 |
Georgia State |
Sun Belt |
47.60 |
51.58 |
3.98 |
118 |
New Mexico |
MW |
52.41 |
51.00 |
-1.41 |
119 |
San Jose State |
MW |
49.75 |
50.76 |
1.01 |
120 |
Central Michigan |
MAC |
50.90 |
49.81 |
-1.09 |
121 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA |
53.64 |
49.21 |
-4.43 |
122 |
UTSA |
CUSA |
47.05 |
48.63 |
1.58 |
123 |
New Mexico State |
Indep |
47.64 |
48.61 |
0.97 |
124 |
Akron |
MAC |
52.98 |
48.34 |
-4.64 |
125 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
50.68 |
48.34 |
-2.34 |
126 |
Rice |
CUSA |
45.96 |
46.85 |
0.89 |
127 |
South Alabama |
Sun Belt |
47.48 |
46.73 |
-0.75 |
128 |
UTEP |
CUSA |
45.98 |
44.86 |
-1.12 |
129 |
Massachusetts |
Indep |
53.37 |
44.76 |
-8.61 |
130 |
Connecticut |
AAC |
40.92 |
44.61 |
3.69 |