This is the Total Tale of Joe Square Public for tonight’s Alabama Clemson:
Joe Square Public doesn't wanna lay the points... but is scared to bet against Bama... so he looks at the over/under. The last two Clemson/Bama title games produced final scores of 66 and 85 and both went over their totals by more than 2 TDs. Naturally Joe Square Public will look at that, and they will think about the top notch QBs playing tonight and how MAYBE this particular Bama defense isn’t quite as dominant as many other Bama defenses…. And they will see 2 teams who both average 40+ points per game. And they will look at that total hovering around 57.5 and think, IMPOSSIBLE! These teams should each crack 30! Both these teams AVERAGE well over 40ppg HOLY SHIT! Okay so they might not each hit their average but it will easily get to 60. Man, the Over is a LOCK! Wait, let’s check some expert predictions.
So Joe Square Public faithfully dials up ESPN.com on his internet machine and BOOM, here’s a list 17 college football experts with predictions including scores. You know these guys wanna nail the exact score, and they’re aware of the Over/under, so I figured most of the predictions will probably “coincidentally” land right around 60… well the average of these score predictions was 66 total points. There were only 4 out of 17 who predicted it under 60 (two 59’s, a 58, and ONE 56). So just ONE had this game landing under the total. So Joe Square Public AND all the alleged ESPN experts are positive that this will be a high scoring game. But WAIT! Joe doesn’t think he’s square… he’s sharp enough to check ESPN Insider, forgot those other experts, what do the gambling experts say? So Joe checks in with Chris Fallica, Will Harris, Phil Steele and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, from espn-chalk. Their score predictions: 69, 64, 66, 68…. All way over. So now roughly 20 of the 21 “experts” Joe Public found on espn have this game going over the total.
But it’s not gonna be at the Georgia Dome or the Superdome in New Orleans or those crazy big domes in Dallas or AZ. It’s gonna be played in recently-rainy San Fran at Levi’s Stadium, known for its shitty grass. Supposedly weather not supposed to be a huge issue tonight, but the field is a known problem. College and pro games have gone 36-23 (61%) to the UNDER in this stadium. Now add in some natural feeling-out/nerves Big Game stuff and the fact that these 2 great offenses aren’t used to playing teams as good as themselves. Alabama only gives up 14.8 ppg (4th-best nationally) and Clemson only gives up 13.7 (tied for 2nd). Defense wins championships. AND let’s not forget the familiarity of this being a re-re-match, that often skews things toward a lower score. All of this is why the sharpest bettors (the ones who bet early and big enough to actually move these lines) are in love with the under while the shmucko ESPN guys all assume shutout. Who are you gonna side with? (okay i'm now terrified after reading Greg Shaker's thread recommending the Over, but...)
I’ll be on the Under.
hopefully some late public action gets that total to tick back up a little higher.
Might mix in a Clemson ML parlayed with the Under…