I'm not selling a play on the Natty this season as usual so I have some thoughts on the game being played at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara right here on the Forum as well on my Twitter Account.
Before we look ahead let's look backward to the 3 previous meetings the last 3 years in the playoffs. Alabama is 2-1 in those games, but Clemson is 2-1 ATS only not covering last season's game because they simply could not move the ball. Final 24-6. More on that later. Both of these teams for the 4th meeting and the only time are 14-0 Straight-up this Season..
Both teams handled their opponents nicely last week on defense as Alabama got out to a 28-0 lead and pretty much coasted. Clemson beat Notre Dame 30-3 but I'm not sure how much we can read into that as our thought is that the Irish did not belong anyway. The most interesting thing about the Clemson Defense is comparing them when they have faced SEC Teams. They Played 2 of them. Texas A&M had 501 Offensive Yards. South Carolina 601 Offensive yards.
Neither of those schools (Tx A&M/SC) have ANYWHERE near the Offense that Bama has which finished #2 in the Nation with Both PPG (Points Per Game) and YPS (Yards Per Snap) just behind Oklahoma in each category. The fact is Alabama's offense this season scored 9 more PPG than any other Saban Coached team EVER. Needless to say, we think the Tide will score their share of points tonight despite a pretty good Clemson D albeit they earned their rep playing in the relatively weak ACC..
So what is the Key for Clemson tonight? Trevor Lawrence. As he goes so goes the Tigers. Bama beat Clemson last year Because the Tigers had a mediocre QB (Bryant) at the helm. Trevor is WAY beyond his years, is mobile, and makes good decisions. Everything Bryant was NOT Lawrence is. So, we conclude here that Clemson will score as well..
Couple added Notes. 1) Alabama played 2 very good defensive teams this season, LSU and Mississippi State. They scored just 29 and 24 in those games but because their Defense produced SHUTOUTS in each and they somewhat coasted. 2) Saban DOES NOT have the Coaching Advantage in this game, it's even at best and that it quite unusual for him.
So what does all of this mean? Let's recap. Alabama will score points even if Tua can't go the whole way. Clemson is likely to do the same. We can't trust the Tigers Defense based on their 2 contests with SEC Teams Tx A&M and South Carolina. Advantage Alabama. Alabama is #2 in the Country in PPG and YPS while playing in the heavy laden Defensive Conference called the SEC. Advantage Alabama. Coaches Dead Even.
This number stands at Alabama -5 to -5.5 with a rogue -6 or two. To me laying the points because they are less than one score (Especially below the 6) is the way to go if you want to bet the side but as always TO's and Big Plays will likely play a part. The Best way to go here is OVER 57
Best of Luck Guys and have fun..