Bet: Baylor @ ISU UNDER 51.5 (also took bet at 51)
Iowa State is 5-14 OU since Sept 2017.
baylor 78th,5.3 yards per play, 4.9 on the road
ISU 64th 5.5 60th, but 6.0 at home
Baylor - 110th w 6.3 and 6.9 on road
ISU 14th w/ 4.0 last 3
What do these numbers tell us? IT means ISU is really good on defense and Baylor has shown to struggle moving the ball consistently, especially on the road.
Iowa State has bee much better under Purdy at moving the ball and scoring, but one thing is very clear under Campbell - ISU doesn't intend to run up the score. Last week was a perfect example: They took their shots, built a lead and pretty much sat on it. They dared KU to move the ball and they did a decent job, but still only walked away scoring 3 against this ISU D.Same thing happened against WVU. Doesn't matter if ISU is up by 6 or 20, they seem to play the same way.
Campbell will put backups into the game, regardless of the situation. Some coaches may wait until their team is up 30 to put other guys in, but not CMC. He has continuously put guys in when the game is close, or closer than some would feel comfortable with when back ups come in. Seems to be part of his plan. He wants guys getting into big moments. This keeps starters healthier and develops depth that is showing, especially on the D side of the ball.
Further, Baylor has scored 14 and 17 on the road against WVU and TX. Two teams with good defenses, but I would argue are not on the same level as ISU.
What about the ISU's higher offensive YPP numbers at home? To start, they are still an avg team in moving the ball, other than Butler, who leads the nation in yards per catch. These numbers are nothing to worry about as ISU is not turning into OU or Texas Tech Saturday.
Let's compare this year to last years game as a good barometer. For those looking at the line, ISU was -8.5 @ Baylor last year. Flip home field and it is the same line. ISU D has improved and offense is more efficient under Purdy, so the question is, did Baylor improve the same amount? Maybe not the same, but yes. They are better. So this would be a hard game to go either way for me. Last week I over thought it. This week seems to be about right.
What about the OU last year? 51. The final score of that game was 23-13, going well below. What makes anyone think these offenses will start racing up and down the field scoring points?
OF course, the last handicap is the weather and this is interesting. The forecast calls for low 20's at kickoff. I will admit when I first bet, it was calling for snow/rain and 15-20 mph wind. Not there anymore, but the cold could be a factor.
This never would be an advantage as previous coaching staff's would recruit primarily from TX, Fl, etc. Campbell has recruited well in the midwest. A lot of these kids are comfortable in this weather. One though, that may not be is Purdy. The kid is from AZ. Can't have had a lot of exposure to cold. This is the icing on the under cake. I think we see a relatively conservative game plan on offense, especially w Purdy needing to adjust to the weather. Someone asked how big are his hands? Will he have trouble throwing a cold ball? Who knows? But if I am putting $$$ on it, I am going with idea of keeping it conservative and plays w high success rate for him.
Then of course, you have the kids from Texas. What kid from Texas wants to come to sub-freezing temps to play a football game? I am not saying they will lose interest, and give up but you have to think it will affect them, especially if we do get some wind and snow.
All this adds up to me to produce another under 51 game. I look for somewhere in the 2710, or 27-14 type of game. Look for the defenses to rule the day with ISU making a few more plays on the offensive side of the ball. This bet has the same confidence as my bets against Ok St, WVU and Tech.
I will continue to say as a fan and handicapper, Look for ISU to win out. I am excited to see the line against TX next week. Any points given to ISU will be a gift.
As always, best of luck to everyone as we continue through this football season. I will add anything further if needed. All feedback, positive or negative is welcome. Challenging opinions are always make us better.
Also on Northwestern +10 @ Iowa. Tough game. Iowa may come in dejected after two close loses, 3 close loses in the big10 and dream crusher for big 10 champs and beyond. NW still a lot to play for as they lead the West right now. May sprinkle a little ML closer to the weekend.