Thanks, Brad! I do use your ratings as a tool when evaluating CFB. I don't have the time to go through every team, every week so I appreciate the work you do.
Quick observation with a follow up question or two: I noticed a bigger difference between your rating and the Vegas line for a number of these games.... at least more than normal.
For example.. Air Force @ UNLV. Vegas opened this line at Air Force -12 and that's the current line as well. Your rating has AF as roughly a 6.5 point favorite. Now I didn't look further into this game so there could be a significant injury to a key player, or something of that sort, just using it as an example...
How do you suggest we take that information? Should we key in on those games and dig a little deeper? Or would you identify games above a certain number as a pretty good bet (say a difference of 4, or 5)?
Thanks in advance for any additional insight!