Last week saw a topsy-turvy week, as 3 of the 4 favorites lost outright, and the 4th could have lost on the last play. For the week, I went 4-1 on my bets with winners in Kansas State, Iowa State, ISU ML, and ISU/WVU Under. The lone loser was Baylor/UT Over. Again, we go through the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from last Saturday and look ahead.
The Good
- Underdogs – Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas State all won outright as underdogs.
- Defenses – The three underdog winners surrendered a total of 40 points (13.3 per game). Who knew we played that kind of defense in the Big 12?
The Bad
- Will Grier – His second consecutive subpar game. And this was worse than last week.
- Favorites – Definitely not the week for favorites. Three lost outright and all four favorites failed to cover the point spread.
The Ugly
- The conference as a whole. Texas emerged as the undisputed leader, but just barely. This league is getting shut out of the playoff.
This was also a week that saw two coordinators get fired. Mike Stoops, DC at Oklahoma, and Doug Meachem, OC at Kansas both got axed. In the case of Oklahoma, it was a chance to right the ship. In the Kansas case, it was a desperate move by a desperate head coach. Just gives Meachem a head start on polishing up his resume.
Finally, some words about a couple of the teams, Texas Tech and Iowa State. I cannot figure out this Tech team. I’ve taken a step back to look more closely at this team. Still can’t figure them out. But what I do know is that they have won 3 conference road games in a row. Texas, Oklahoma State, and TCU have all gone down. Is Tech’s defense all of a sudden that good, or is the competition really that bad? They did give up 47 to Ole Miss, 49 to Houston, and 42 to West Virginia. I imagine that it is somewhere in between.
Next, a few words on Iowa State. This is a classic case of the numbers leading you astray. If you a numbers geek, this team is killing you. They average just 360 yards per game (236 passing, 124 rushing). They average 25 points per game (they have scored 78 the past two games). In its entire history, the Cyclones beat a top ten once through 2016. In last 16 or 17 games, they have 3 wins against top 6 opponents. This team is proving that yes, you can win with defense in the Big 12. This past week, West Virginia managed just 152 yards of offense. For the season, they give up an average of 317 yards/game, which includes games against Oklahoma, OK State, and West Virginia. I have said the past couple of weeks that Iowa State gets no respect. I am sensing that is changing.
Light week ahead in the Big 12
BYES: Texas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
PLAYS: OU/TCU Under 61
Week 8
Oklahoma at TCU (+8) – In my preseason write-up, I predicted a TCU victory here. After 7 weeks, I am taking that back. OU has its highly explosive offense. But look for a renewed effort on defense, as DC Mike Stoops was fired. OU was embarrassed by Texas, surrendering 48 points, and just being overall dominated by the Texas offense. They look for redemption here. On the TCU side, QB Shawn Robinson has thrown 9 TD’s and 8 INT’s. This is clearly unacceptable, and this type of performance won’t beat Oklahoma. The Frogs rushed for just 121 yards against Tech, and they may look to run more against the Sooners. TCU has a stout defense again. I am looking for an Oklahoma win in this game. I won’t play the side here, and I haven’t seen the total yet, but I will be looking to play the Under here, especially if it comes in around 60-65.
Kansas at Texas Tech (-20.5) – This could be a sandwich game for Tech. Coming off the big win at TCU, and at Iowa State next week. Something tells me they look past Kansas here. It’s Kansas or nothing here for me.