By now, you may have seen my friend, Raider’s take on this game. It is short, concise and accurate. On top of that, the guys on the Dream Preview all like Iowa State +6 or 6.5 and of course, I agree w Essler on why he likes Iowa State this week as well. I will still dive into this game a little bit more just for fun.
I have taken Iowa State +7 (-130) and ML +210. Iowa State continues to sparkle ATS since beginning of last year and had success during Campbell’s first season as a dog. Also, given the fact I think ISU wins straight up, don’t be afraid of 6 or 6.5
Iowa State 19-7-2 Since Sept 2016
14-5-2 Since Sept 2016 as a dog
8-2-2 Since Sept 2015 as a home dog
Again, this is since Campbell took over. No coincidence the market has not caught up to what this staff has done and no doubt public money sees ISU and assumes they are still a team that gets rolled on consistently.
Now, On to why Iowa State wins this game outright. Last week was a max bet against Ok ST for reasons listed last week. This will be a tougher test for ISU, but many key factors point me toward an ISU win.
Keep in mind, this line is again different if Iowa State plays game one. This team is just as talented as anyone in the big 12, but perception is they aren’t as of a good team. However, they have played the #2 toughest schedule. Conversely, West Va SOS is in the 60’s. They had one game cancelled against NC state. PERCEPTION VS REALITY: WVU potentially loses a coin flip and ISU wins first game. Is the spread smaller? Probably.
2 Games of note last year:
#4 undefeated TCU came in to Ames as a 7 point road favorite and lost outright…
ISU went on the road and lost to WVU the next week. They lost by 4 with the spread at 3.5. Let’s get into this game a bit.
ISU went down 20 to 0 early and lost the game 20-16. Grier and that offense didn’t do anything in the 2nd half. Been noted every time how good ISU is holding teams below their avg and dominating in the second half. Also, Demonte Ruth, a DB for ISU gave up a long tD to start that game, has done it few times since, including this year to OU and has not played since. You will see a very disciplined ISU D Sat.
Kyle Kempt played through an injury that day that was kept under the rug. He struggled and so did the offense, yet still had a chance to win with their last few possessions.
Now, fast forward to the game Sat night:
I wrote in my season preview of Iowa State that Campbell wanted a faster tempo than last year, but do so with the run. Purdy finally gives them that chance. Purdy and fellow freshman Re-Al Mitchell are very fast, read-option Qb’s. You can see where Campbell is going. Also, Purdy was recruited by Bama and Texas A&M, so this isn’t your typical ISU QB recruit. ISU RB situation is fine, but if Montgomery plays, now having to prepare for the run of Purdy, could open up a lot for him.
Iowa State defense: A lot is said about TCU and Texas, but ISU could very well have the best D in the league. The big reason: Depth. Never really had that before. Isu gave up 42 to Ok ST, but digging deeper you wil find:
OK St avg 6.5 yards per play, 20th in nation. ISU held them to 5.5, roughly 80th in nation.
In 76 snaps for Ok ST, ISU had combined 23 sacks and TFL. The D did their job to win the game against a faster paced team.
The big factor for WVU is Grier. However, 7 turnovers in last two games, 6 being picks are a big cause for concern. ISU D is similar to Iowa and Wisky: Force the opposing offense to make 12 play drives without making mistakes. Grier is showing that he is turnover prone. Look for that to continue against opportunistic ISU D.
Lastly, I don’t usually point single guys out, but DB Peavy for ISU is one of best in the nation. He will match up, and not stop, but contain Sills.
I am also on under 57.5. Look for Purdy to come back to earth a bit, but play fundamental football and for ISU to run the ball more effectively. I see several drives without points on both sides, but WVU being tested in a way they haven’t yet this season.
Look for a 27-20 type of win for Iowa State.
Games that I will add a little analysis to that I have also bet:
Oregon + 3 - Seems like a side most people don't agree with, but here is why I like Oregon:
Without that goofy reverse TD, bad snap, and running instead of kneeling, they would be undefeated right now. You can believe these players are ready to redeem themselves at home and the fans will be ready.
Further, we have heard all year how much the Wash team has lost on the D side of the ball, how Gaskin and Browning aren't right. Both have had their struggles this year. The Oregon D has played well all year and think they are a little under-represented here.
Even more, Wash has not played an offense close to this. Auburn is proving to be down, BYU isn't what we thought since beating Wisky and AZ state is ok, but not great. I see Oregon keeping the pressure on and knowing they need to finish this one as a point of redemption for the game against STanford (full disclosure - had a bet on Oregon +3 in that one.)
Kansas State +7 - Love the spot for K-State. Long story short: They do very well as the home dog. Greg Shaker points out , KSU is 32-15 ATS as the dog, K-State is on the decline and hasn't looked great, but I had OKST finishing 8th in the conference this year and I stand by it. They are over rated after losing so much on offense and still have a terrible D. While it may not be a shoot out, I think KSU does enough to get the win at home. I have them in small moneyline parlays, but the points are the better bet.
Duke +2.5 and +3 - Duke has their starting QB back, and while they struggled against a good Va TEch team, I see them having more success tomorrow. Keep in mind, Duke is good against the run and has already played the triple option this year in Army.
Best win for Ga Tech is against a struggling Louisville team who lost last minute against FSU before. I am not so sure they were completely up for the Fri night game.
I lean to the under in this game, but think Duke is the better side. They win straight up, but taking the points to be safe.
Hope everyone finds this helpful and BOL as always heading into another fun weekend of football.