The first full week of conference play is now in, and it offered up some surprises. My own record was an abysmal 2-4, getting a couple of totals right and missing on all my sides. As usual, I will review the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 4 and look ahead to Week 5.
Week 4 – The Good
- Texas Tech – absolutely owned Oklahoma State at their place.
- Texas - created turnovers to beat a rated TCU squad in Austin.
- West Virginia – smoked the Wildcats at home.
The Bad
- Kansas State – Coach Snyder was visibly frustrated with his team after the game.
- Kansas – Only 7 points versus Baylor a week after scoring 55 on Rutgers, and Baylor surrendered 40 to Duke.
The Ugly
- Oklahoma – got beat everywhere but the scoreboard on Saturday. Sooners haven’t covered a spread since Week 1.
- Oklahoma State – smoked by Tech as a 14-point home favorite
- Baylor – Got the W versus Kansas. Defense was very good, but 13 penalties for 141 yards?
Week 5 offers up some interesting match-ups, and I believe some opportunities. First up:
Iowa State +10.5 at TCU The Frogs have lost two in a row, this game is a revenge spot for them and they are at home. This all lines up for them, right? Not so fast, my friend (as Lee Corso would say)! The Frogs have turned the ball over 7 times the past two weeks, and Iowa State is not a cure for that. The Cyclones has a stout D (345 YPG). In last year’s game, the Frogs only gained 307 yards versus the Cyclones and coughed it 3 times (the turnover bug again). Plus, TCU is not the same defensive unit they were last year. This is a big test for Iowa State, but I think they can stay within the number.
Texas Tech +3.5 vs West Virginia – Both teams had impressive wins on Saturday, but the Techsters definitely scored the more impressive W. They dominated on both sides of the ball, putting up over 600 yards and 41 points at Stillwater. On the other side, West Virginia’s D only gives up 300 YPG, so they’ve been very good, too. Plus, they have the league’s best QB in Will Grier. Funny things happen on the plains in west Texas, so I think the Raiders keep this close. In spite of West Virginia’s defensive stats, I’d also look at the Over in this game.
Kansas State +8.5 vs Texas – On paper, this should be an easy Texas victory. But, the Horns have never had any luck in Manhattan, and this is exactly the type of game that Tom Herman screws up. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas is looking past K-State, as they play Oklahoma next week (far and away the biggest game for Texas every year). Texas won with turnovers on Saturday, and I don’t look for that to repeat itself this Saturday. On the other side, Coach Snyder was visibly frustrated with his team’s effort on Saturday, and practice won’t be fun in Manhattan this week. K-State simply isn’t that good, but don’t tell Coach Snyder or his team. I don’t want to bet against him as an underdog at home.
Oklahoma -23.5 vs Baylor – Good news for Oklahoma is that Baylor isn’t Army. Sooners haven’t covered a spread since Week 1. Put a gun to my head, I’d say they won’t this week either. The OU D will give up some points. Baylor appears settled on Charlie Brewer at QB, which will give their offense some continuity. Baylor being flagged for way too many penalties, so that may offset the continuity. Baylor played the Sooners tough last season, so Baylor has OU’s attention. On the other hand, OU has Texas next week, and may look past Baylor. No play for me here.
Oklahoma State -18 at Kansas – KU returned to reality last Saturday. This could get ugly. No play for me.
Plays: Iowa State +10.5, Kansas State +8.4, Texas Tech +3.5. Will also look to play the totals on WVU/TTU, and ISU/TCU when they come out.