There should be no surprise at who tops my initial power ratings as Alabama is No. 1 in my preseason ratings heading into 2018. While the Crimson Tide do have some question marks, quite simply, the Tide have the most talented roster in college football and are coached by one of the greatest in the history of the game.
These power ratings of mine are basically a Vegas rating as I would favor Alabama by at least 1.5-2 points over any other team in the country. The Crimson Tide do return only 10 starters and lost WR Calvin Ridley plus all 4 starters in the secondary including safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Tide also lost both their O.C. Brian Daboll to the Buffalo Bills and D.C. Jeremy Pruitt to Tennessee. There will be a QB battle between Tua Tagovailoa (title game star) and Jalen Hurts (2-year starter) but the Tide have plenty of talented play-makers in RB’s Damien Harris and Najee Harris a long with WR Jerry Jeudy and LB’s Dylan Moses and Mack Wilson. Alabama has been favored in 111 of their last 112 games and the Crimson Tide will be favored in all 12 games this year with 10 of those by double-digits. Their two toughest games will be at LSU on November 3rd (likely a 7-10 point favorite) and a home game vs Auburn in the finale (likely a 7-10 point favorite).
Thanks to the return of 15 starters from last year’s ACC Championship season, the Clemson Tigers enter 2018 as heavy favorites to win the ACC again and make their 4th straight appearance in the college football playoff. Several underclassmen decided against leaving early for the NFL Draft giving Clemson the best defensive line in college football. Their four returning starters on the DL (Austin Bryant, Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins) have a combined 535 career tackles, 89.5 tackles for loss and 47 sacks! Kelly Bryant returns at QB but will be pushed by incoming frosh Trevor Lawrence. Clemson will be favored in all 12 games this year with their two toughest games coming at Texas A&M (Clemson likely a 10-point favorite) and at Florida State where Clemson will likely be a 7-10 point favorite.
The defending Big Ten Champion Ohio State Buckeyes closed 2017 strong with five straight victories highlighted by a 17-point win over Pac-12 champ USC in the Cotton Bowl. While the Buckeyes lose 4-year starting QB J.T. Barrett, his likely replacement Dwayne Haskins has more upside and both RB’s J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber return. Head coach Urban Meyer signed another top-notch recruiting class and also made a great hire in bringing in former Washington State D.C Alex Grinch to co-coordinate the defense with Greg Schiano. The Buckeyes will likely be favored in at least 11 games this year, however road trips to Penn State and Michigan State (a pair of Top 15 teams) will likely decide who comes out of the rugged Big Ten East Division.
The Georgia Bulldogs came up just short in the National Title game but 2017 was no “one-year wonder” for Georgia who welcomes back 13 starters and signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. The Bulldogs do have several holes to fill including trying to replace two of the Top 5 RB’s in school history in Sony Michel and Nick Chubb a long with rebuilding a LB corps that lost Butkus Award winner Roquan Smith. However, QB Jake Fromm returns after a great freshman season as do four starters on the offensive line. RB D’Andre Swift showed some flashes in limited duty last season. The schedule is also very manageable as the Bulldogs will likely be favored in all 12 games with a road trip to LSU (UGA around a 4.5-poiny favorite) being their toughest game a long with a home game vs Auburn (UGA likely a 4-6 point favorite).
After notching back-to-back seasons with at least 10 wins, the Washington Huskies are the most experienced of all the Top 5 teams with 17 returning starters. The Huskies have a great 1-2 combo in QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin who are both 3-year starters already. Washington also brings back several players who were lost for the 2017 season because of injury including LT Trey Adams and WR Chico McClatcher. They do lose their best WR in Dante Pettis and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in DT Vita Vea but Washington signed their best recruiting class in the Chris Petersen era. The schedule is manageable as the Huskies are likely to be favored in 11 games this year. The opener vs Auburn (in Atlanta) will see the Huskies as likely FG underdogs and in Pac-12 play, the toughest games will be road trips to Utah, Oregon and a home game vs Stanford. However, the Huskies are likely to be TD favorites in all three!
I hope these ratings are just another handicapping tool you can use in prepping for the upcoming season, which is now only a couple months away! I will update these power ratings as fall camps open up at the end of July and early August.
Best of luck,
Brad
Rank |
Team |
Conference |
Power Rating |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC |
97.14 |
2 |
Clemson |
ACC |
95.48 |
3 |
Ohio State |
Big Ten |
94.65 |
4 |
Georgia |
SEC |
93.63 |
5 |
Washington |
Pac-12 |
91.39 |
6 |
Oklahoma |
Big 12 |
90.72 |
7 |
Auburn |
SEC |
90.64 |
8 |
Wisconsin |
Big Ten |
90.57 |
9 |
Penn State |
Big Ten |
90.01 |
10 |
Michigan |
Big Ten |
88.87 |
11 |
Notre Dame |
Indep |
87.87 |
12 |
Michigan State |
Big Ten |
87.54 |
13 |
Miami (FL) |
ACC |
86.62 |
14 |
Stanford |
Pac-12 |
86.12 |
15 |
Mississippi State |
SEC |
85.81 |
16 |
Texas |
Big 12 |
84.32 |
17 |
USC |
Pac-12 |
84.22 |
18 |
Florida State |
ACC |
84.18 |
19 |
LSU |
SEC |
82.55 |
20 |
TCU |
Big 12 |
82.51 |
21 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
82.34 |
22 |
Oklahoma State |
Big 12 |
82.00 |
23 |
Oregon |
Pac-12 |
81.81 |
24 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
81.71 |
25 |
Florida |
SEC |
80.82 |
26 |
Utah |
Pac-12 |
80.70 |
27 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
80.12 |
28 |
Boise State |
MW |
80.03 |
29 |
Missouri |
SEC |
79.93 |
30 |
UCF |
AAC |
79.91 |
31 |
West Virginia |
Big 12 |
79.44 |
32 |
Iowa |
Big Ten |
79.20 |
33 |
Iowa State |
Big 12 |
79.18 |
34 |
Louisville |
ACC |
79.14 |
35 |
Boston College |
ACC |
79.11 |
36 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
79.03 |
37 |
NC State |
ACC |
78.72 |
38 |
Northwestern |
Big Ten |
78.21 |
39 |
Arizona |
Pac-12 |
77.94 |
40 |
Duke |
ACC |
77.90 |
41 |
Florida Atlantic |
CUSA |
77.49 |
42 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
77.35 |
43 |
Kansas State |
Big 12 |
77.11 |
44 |
Memphis |
AAC |
76.10 |
45 |
California |
Pac-12 |
75.80 |
46 |
Purdue |
Big Ten |
75.60 |
47 |
Texas Tech |
Big 12 |
75.53 |
48 |
Ole Miss |
SEC |
74.86 |
49 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
74.68 |
50 |
Baylor |
Big 12 |
74.34 |
51 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
73.79 |
52 |
UCLA |
Pac-12 |
73.63 |
53 |
Washington State |
Pac-12 |
73.15 |
54 |
Fresno State |
MW |
73.08 |
55 |
Arizona State |
Pac-12 |
72.87 |
56 |
Nebraska |
Big Ten |
72.63 |
57 |
San Diego State |
MW |
72.44 |
58 |
Indiana |
Big Ten |
71.98 |
59 |
Houston |
AAC |
71.82 |
60 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
71.67 |
61 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
71.51 |
62 |
USF |
AAC |
70.76 |
63 |
Maryland |
Big Ten |
70.34 |
64 |
Minnesota |
Big Ten |
70.30 |
65 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
69.65 |
66 |
Ohio |
MAC |
69.54 |
67 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
69.48 |
68 |
Marshall |
CUSA |
68.97 |
69 |
Colorado |
Pac-12 |
68.95 |
70 |
Toledo |
MAC |
68.58 |
71 |
Navy |
AAC |
68.45 |
72 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC |
67.93 |
73 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
67.47 |
74 |
Temple |
AAC |
67.41 |
75 |
Arkansas State |
Sun Belt |
67.28 |
76 |
Middle Tennessee |
CUSA |
66.93 |
77 |
Virginia |
ACC |
66.84 |
78 |
Utah State |
MW |
66.77 |
79 |
Appalachian State |
Sun Belt |
66.58 |
80 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA |
66.20 |
81 |
Army |
Indep |
65.80 |
82 |
Wyoming |
MW |
65.38 |
83 |
BYU |
Indep |
65.12 |
84 |
Troy |
Sun Belt |
64.85 |
85 |
Rutgers |
Big Ten |
64.77 |
86 |
Western Michigan |
MAC |
64.17 |
87 |
Miami (OH) |
MAC |
63.43 |
88 |
North Texas |
CUSA |
63.41 |
89 |
SMU |
AAC |
63.02 |
90 |
Illinois |
Big Ten |
62.94 |
91 |
Tulane |
AAC |
62.44 |
92 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
61.94 |
93 |
Nevada |
MW |
61.72 |
94 |
UAB |
CUSA |
61.30 |
95 |
Air Force |
MW |
60.92 |
96 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC |
60.46 |
97 |
Colorado State |
MW |
60.35 |
98 |
Kansas |
Big 12 |
60.21 |
99 |
Tulsa |
AAC |
59.78 |
100 |
Cincinnati |
AAC |
59.74 |
101 |
Massachusetts |
Indep |
59.47 |
102 |
UNLV |
MW |
58.98 |
103 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA |
58.70 |
104 |
Oregon State |
Pac-12 |
58.60 |
105 |
UL-Monroe |
Sun Belt |
58.19 |
106 |
Georgia Southern |
Sun Belt |
57.42 |
107 |
New Mexico State |
Indep |
56.43 |
108 |
Central Michigan |
MAC |
56.40 |
109 |
Akron |
MAC |
56.29 |
110 |
FIU |
CUSA |
56.03 |
111 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA |
55.79 |
112 |
UTSA |
CUSA |
55.70 |
113 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
55.59 |
114 |
Western Kentucky |
CUSA |
55.58 |
115 |
New Mexico |
MW |
55.29 |
116 |
Georgia State |
Sun Belt |
53.13 |
117 |
East Carolina |
AAC |
52.94 |
118 |
Connecticut |
AAC |
52.47 |
119 |
South Alabama |
Sun Belt |
52.27 |
120 |
UL-Lafayette |
Sun Belt |
51.77 |
121 |
Coastal Carolina |
Sun Belt |
51.06 |
122 |
Ball State |
MAC |
50.69 |
123 |
Hawaii |
MW |
50.11 |
124 |
Charlotte |
CUSA |
50.07 |
125 |
Rice |
CUSA |
48.76 |
126 |
Texas State |
Sun Belt |
48.59 |
127 |
Liberty |
Indep |
48.59 |
128 |
San Jose State |
MW |
48.17 |
129 |
Kent State |
MAC |
47.61 |
130 |
UTEP |
CUSA |
45.70 |