The National Collegiate Athletic Association’s 2017/2018 season officially reaches its climax tonight and when the confetti rains down for the second time in less than two months at the palatial palace that the NFL’s Falcons call home in Atlanta, it will be the Crimson Tide rolling all the way into next season as champions – once again – of “amateur” football.
Redemption and Resurrection:
By the winter of 2015, Alabama Defensive Coordinator Kirby Smart, who had long endured Nick Saban’s staff turnstile, was finally ready to depart Tuscaloosa himself. An opportunity to return to his alma mater in Athens had arrived, and Kirby was keen not to pass up a coveted career pivot to lead his beloved Bulldogs back to national prominence.
At the same time, Jeremy Pruitt, an Alabama alum, then working as Georgia’s Defensive Coordinator, was not, however, looking to leave the proverbial Dawghouse.
Unfortunately for Pruitt, with Mark Richt’s swift dismissal, his pleas to stay on staff fell on deaf ears. Kirby could have kept Pruitt in place at Georgia, even if it was just for the following season to avoid an entirely disruptive transition with respect to recruitment, but Smart said he wasn’t interested.
Of course, in true storybook fashion, those two men, forever connected despite forging a spiteful relationship, are on opposite sides of the national championship coin tonight. And while past conflicts may have come to pass, only one of them will have the added insight and motivation to watch the other walk off the field in defeat.
As Monday evening on the east coast burns into Tuesday morning, Kirby will indeed be smarting, and there will be a lot of posturing from Pruitt as he rolls out of his brief coaching tango in Tuscaloosa and into the top-slot at Tennessee.
Following all of tonight’s fanfare, the former Middle Tennessee State Blue Raider immediately takes over as the vaunted new leader of the Volunteer football army in Knoxville, and in doing so takes on the challenge of rebuilding perhaps the SEC’s most beguiled program. But with a championship sheen sure to shine for at least a few recruiting campaigns, it certainly won’t hurt the living room pitch to remind bright-eyed high school ‘ballers that it was indeed Pruitt, and not Smart, who out-coached the other to glory on the college game’s biggest stage in the early days of January 2018.
By the Numbers:
Models are important, for a lot of reasons. They are fun to look at, exciting to work with, and hardly ever protest even the most bewitching demands. Charts and statistical models are all of the above as well.
When building mathematical models for this affair, the consensus conclusion is that Alabama is projected to win this game by four points. The most likely outcome based on low turnover trajectory is a 24-20 win for the Tide. But mind you, that aspect of the model does not account for the fact that there will be turnovers tonight. With that, the projections shift.
Understanding that the value of turnovers is consistently paramount, more accurate projections draw closer to 28-21/27-20; both, again, favoring Alabama. This time, though, a higher total point projection and supplemental spread (covering) context is concluded.
The Verdict:
With all of the information available out there rolled into this play, the most likely outcome of this match-up portends a touchdown (6-7 point) victory for the favored side.
Georgia will not be shut down, but the Alabama offense will find its groove and by the time the final seconds tick off the clock tonight, the score will not be close enough for Bulldog backers to cash their hopeful tickets, or more notably, for bookmakers across the globe to keep all of the riches from tonight's multi-million dollar match-up on their side of the counter.
Kirby Smart will make some key second half moves, for sure, but in the end it just won’t be enough to keep the teacher from schooling the student once more.
Total selections (Over-Under) in title games are always a precarious play, but when it comes to keeping the game within reach, pre-game playbooks and attempts to avoid disaster typically dictate the final score. With that in mind, the original opening total of 47 seems more appropriate for this clash than the current adjusted numbers floating around the 46 point mark.
As long that number stays under 47, consider a strong look at the OVER in this game.
And lastly, I’m booking a 6+ point win for Alabama tonight, so if you’re looking for the favorable side tonight, again, take a hard look at the Crimson Tide minus the best number you can find under six to cash the spread cover.
As always, best of luck to you all, and enjoy the game.