Hey Everyone,
I am writing this late as I have been traveling this week and more challenging to put together a real in-depth handicap.
As we look at this weeks game between ISU and Baylor, I want to make sure I am not looking at these games with Cyclone colored glasses. I have been on ISU all season and these last two were tough to swallow as I have being feeling confident enough to post about this team on here.
Now we look at a classic letdown game. ISU had their “dreams crushed” last week. They lost on senior day, in the most controversial (and thus ISU way) possible. By all accounts, that should’ve been a touchdown at the end of regulation. I am not suggesting ISU wins the game if it is a TD. Maybe they miss the extra point, maybe they go for 2 and lose. Hell, maybe they go to OT and lose by 8 and don’t cover the 7.
Still, can’t help but think ISU was still the correct side. OK St was given 3 chances for a 2 point conversion to tie with about 5 minutes to goand that late controversial call ended up to be very big in the outcome. We could easily say ISU put themselves in a good chance to win this game.
Let’s also look back at the WVU game. They trailed 20-0, almost came back and won, but falling 20-16. It came out in this past game that the starting QB, Kempt was injured and still played the whole game at WVU. Perhaps if he was healthy, or Zeb Noland got the call, we have two very different outcomes.
Despite these thoughts, a loss is a loss and there is nothing to be done about it, but move forward.
Let’s address the letdown for ISU first. I think it is natural to have some let down. ISU could’ve won these next two and played for the big 12 championship. Hell, I am 2-8 in fantasy and just got knocked out and now I don’t feel like even trying to not come in last. I will continue to lean on Campbell and these seniors. I think these kids still want to do something rarely done at ISU, win 9 games, including a bowl. Look for them to stay sharp against a Baylor team that doesn’t have anything to play for except spoiler.
Let’s look at Baylor. They are coming off their latest loss to Tech by 14. In fact, their last 7 loses have been by double figures, with the exception of the implosion by WVU, who were up 25 before letting Baylor almost tie the game late. Combine that with the fact that ISU has been stingy against all teams, especially in the second half, other than Ok St since changing their defensive scheme after the Iowa loss. I don’t think Baylor has the firepower as Ok St to have a repeat game from last week. To add, ISU didn’t force a turnover against Ok st. Something ISU has done well. Again, Baylor doesn’t have the talent on offense as Ok ST and see a few turnovers forced for an opportunistic ISU D.
Baylor is also last in the big 12, allowing 465 yards a game. To add to that, a healthy Zeb Noland carved up an OK St defense. While Kempt has been an amazing story, you can see the arm talent difference between him compared to both Park and Noland. I see ISU being a little more confident in opening up the playbook and letting Noland push the ball down field against this porous Baylor D. Even if it is Kempt starting this week, ISU has shown they can play ball control and win comfortably against lesser teams.
ISU has had two games now: against TX when they refused to try and run Montgomery and last week first and goal, every ISU fan was clambering for DM to get the ball. He didn’t and turned it over. I see ISU really establishing the run this week and getting him easily over 1,000 yards on the season.
That said, I think ISU D shuts down Baylor and the offense has a big day under Noland, or an efficient day under a healthy Kempt. ISU has lost 4 in a row against Baylor and I think this streak ends tomorrow with ISU winning by around 17-21 points.
Good luck to all heading into this weekend.