Last season, we posted computer projected lines at pregame.com. It was our first year of doing computer projected lines so we didn’t have any past data points to see how the projections would do against the Vegas lines. We were actually quite pleased with the results. Games where there was of difference of more than 3 points saw our computer lines actually beat the Vegas line at a 108-80-3 (57.4%) clip last season and are 24-30-1 this year. That’s pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping (much to our dismay). Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Of the current 3 games where our computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line (highlighted), our favorite team this week to back would be Northwestern +1.5. The Comp column is the computer projected line and the Diff column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
Thursday, October 19th |
|
|
|
Game |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
303 Memphis |
|
|
|
304 Houston |
-2.5 |
-3.84 |
-1.34 |
305 UL-Lafayette |
|
|
|
306 Arkansas St |
-12.5 |
-14.91 |
-2.41 |
Friday, October 20th |
|
|
|
Game |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
307 Western Kentucky |
|
|
|
308 Old Dominion |
+10 |
+7.69 |
+2.31 |
309 Marshall |
|
|
|
310 Middle Tenn |
+2.5 |
+1.96 |
+0.54 |
311 Air Force |
|
|
|
312 Nevada |
+7 |
+4.05 |
+2.95 |
313 Colorado State |
|
|
|
314 New Mexico |
+7.5 |
+10.25 |
-2.75 |
Saturday, October 21st |
|
|
|
Game |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
315 Iowa |
|
|
|
316 Northwestern |
+1.5 |
-2.56 |
+4.06 |
317 Tulsa |
|
|
|
318 Connecticut |
+6 |
+4.84 |
+1.16 |
319 Troy |
|
|
|
320 Georgia State |
+7.5 |
+7.74 |
-0.24 |
321 SMU |
|
|
|
322 Cincinnati |
+7.5 |
+6.52 |
+0.98 |
323 North Texas |
|
|
|
324 Florida Atlantic |
-3.5 |
-4.11 |
-0.61 |
325 Buffalo |
|
|
|
326 Miami Ohio |
-2.5 |
-3.24 |
-0.74 |
327 Akron |
|
|
|
328 Toledo |
-15.5 |
-14.87 |
+0.63 |
329 Kent |
|
|
|
330 Ohio |
-19 |
-18.97 |
+0.03 |
331 Northern Illinois |
|
|
|
332 Bowling Green |
+13.5 |
+11.01 |
+2.49 |
333 Western Michigan |
|
|
|
334 Eastern Michigan |
+3 |
+0.78 |
+2.22 |
335 Indiana |
|
|
|
336 Michigan State |
-7 |
-7.07 |
-0.07 |
337 UAB |
|
|
|
338 Charlotte |
+7.5 |
+6.22 |
+1.28 |
339 Temple |
|
|
|
340 Army |
-6.5 |
-8.08 |
-1.58 |
341 BYU |
|
|
|
342 East Carolina |
+5.5 |
+6.94 |
-1.44 |
343 Purdue |
|
|
|
344 Rutgers |
+9 |
+6.71 |
+2.29 |
345 Pittsburgh |
|
|
|
346 Duke |
-8 |
-8.59 |
-0.59 |
347 Syracuse |
|
|
|
348 Miami Florida |
-17 |
-15.63 |
+1.37 |
349 Central Michigan |
|
|
|
350 Ball State |
+2.5 |
+2.87 |
-0.37 |
351 Wake Forest |
|
|
|
352 Georgia Tech |
-5.5 |
-8.07 |
-2.57 |
353 Coastal Carolina |
|
|
|
354 Appalachian St |
-23.5 |
-21.84 |
+1.66 |
355 Michigan |
|
|
|
356 Penn State |
-9.5 |
-12.21 |
-2.71 |
357 Maryland |
|
|
|
358 Wisconsin |
-24 |
-25.09 |
-1.09 |
359 North Carolina |
|
|
|
360 Virginia Tech |
-21 |
-19.53 |
+1.97 |
361 Boston College |
|
|
|
362 Virginia |
-6.5 |
-6.07 |
+0.43 |
363 Wyoming |
|
|
|
364 Boise State |
-14 |
-16.59 |
-2.59 |
365 Kansas |
|
|
|
366 TCU |
-39 |
-39.68 |
-0.68 |
367 Rice |
|
|
|
368 UTSA |
-20 |
-18.34 |
+1.66 |
369 Georgia Southern |
|
|
|
370 Massachusetts |
-7 |
-5.77 |
+1.23 |
371 Central Florida |
|
|
|
372 Navy |
+7 |
+6.43 |
+0.57 |
373 Idaho |
|
|
|
374 Missouri |
-14.5 |
-17.37 |
-2.87 |
375 Kentucky |
|
|
|
376 Mississippi St |
-12 |
-10.17 |
+1.83 |
377 South Florida |
|
|
|
378 Tulane |
+11.5 |
+11.71 |
-0.21 |
379 Utah State |
|
|
|
380 UNLV |
-4 |
-1.71 |
+2.29 |
381 Southern Miss |
|
|
|
382 Louisiana Tech |
-2.5 |
-4.51 |
-2.01 |
383 Oregon |
|
|
|
384 UCLA |
-6.5 |
-4.7 |
+1.8 |
385 Arizona |
|
|
|
386 California |
+3 |
-0.41 |
+3.41 |
387 Illinois |
|
|
|
388 Minnesota |
-13.5 |
-14.45 |
-0.95 |
389 Tennessee |
|
|
|
390 Alabama |
-36 |
-34.18 |
+1.82 |
391 Oklahoma State |
|
|
|
392 Texas |
+7 |
+4.53 |
+2.47 |
393 West Virginia |
|
|
|
394 Baylor |
+9 |
+6.58 |
+2.42 |
395 Auburn |
|
|
|
396 Arkansas |
+15.5 |
+13.82 |
+1.68 |
397 Louisville |
|
|
|
398 Florida State |
-7 |
-6.65 |
+0.35 |
399 UL Monroe |
|
|
|
400 South Alabama |
-4.5 |
-5.51 |
-1.01 |
401 USC |
|
|
|
402 Notre Dame |
-3.5 |
-4.98 |
-1.48 |
403 Oklahoma |
|
|
|
404 Kansas State |
+14 |
+11.03 |
+2.97 |
405 LSU |
|
|
|
406 Mississippi |
+7 |
+4.47 |
+2.53 |
407 Iowa State |
|
|
|
408 Texas Tech |
-7 |
-4.51 |
+2.49 |
409 Arizona St |
|
|
|
410 Utah |
-9.5 |
-6.99 |
+2.51 |
411 Colorado |
|
|
|
412 Washington State |
-10 |
-12.62 |
-2.62 |
413 Fresno State |
|
|
|
414 San Diego State |
-7.5 |
-13.24 |
-5.74 |