After seven weeks, the Big XII is sitting pretty with 3 teams in the running for a playoff spot, and some meaningful games ahead. TCU is in command here, but Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are still playing for a conference championship and playoff spot. The Big XII also has 4 of the top 7 offenses in the country (by yards per game) right now. This past weekend, the conference’s marquee game turned out to be a tough, hard fought win for the Sooners. As for the spread, Texas, Oklahoma State, TCU, Iowa State and West Virginia all cashed. This weekend, not much I like, but there are a couple of Overs I am betting
Game of the Week: Oklahoma State at Texas (+7.5, O/U 65.5) I would describe the Longhorns’ season as “close but not quite enough.” Tough losses at USC and vs Oklahoma (both games winnable for Texas) are the difference between a standout season and a mediocre season. I think we will see more of the same in Austin. The key match-up will be the Oklahoma State passing game vs the Texas pass defense. OSU averages 411 yards/gm passing, the Horns D gives up 265 through the air. Last week, the Sooners threw for 344 yards against Texas. I think that the Texas D can stop OSU’s running game, and might make OSU one dimensional offensively. However, the Cowboys do bring in the nation’s #1 offense, averaging 611 yards/game. The Cowboys have the nation’s best QB/WR combo in Mason Rudolph and James Washington. It’s not just the athleticism I like here, but the experience. Meanwhile, Texas is still a young team. All this adds up to a Cowboys win. The question can they win by at least 8? Not sure that I want to lay that on the road, but the Cowboys are the better team. This game is a pass for me, but I would give the lean to the Cowboys. I’ll take the Cowboys if I can get a good number. It’s not hard to envision a 35-27 game here.
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-6, O/U 69.5) This was the hardest game to handicap in the Big XII this week. The home team, Texas Tech, is coming off a big collapse at West Virginia last Saturday, while Iowa State is coming off a blowout win versus Kansas. Last week, it took Kansas 15 drives just to get the ball past its own 35-yard line. Iowa State will see a much different offense this week. The Raiders have the nation’s #7 offense, averaging 544 yards and 45 points per game. After last week’s meltdown which saw West Virginia outscore Tech 29-0 to close out the game, look for the Raiders to be more focused for the full 60 minutes. Meanwhile, ISU reminds me of what our old friend, Marco D’Angelo would say: No team is ever as good as its best game. And ISU might be getting some “line love” because of its great win over Oklahoma. Is ISU THAT good? No. Don’t get me wrong, Matt Campbell has this program going in the right direction. This week, ISU offense will move the ball and score on Tech, but we won’t see the ISU defense pitch a shutout. Nor will we see the same Tech team that was closed out 29-0 last week. The line at 6 tells me that ISU is the lean, but Tech will have the more focused week at practice. Not crazy about the side here, but I love the Over at 69.5. Both teams will score into the 30’s, with the winner likely scoring in the 40’s.
Oklahoma at Kansas State (+12.5, O/U 56.5) Wow, Bill Snyder at double digit dog at home? Sign me up!! Well, not so fast my friend. Problem with K-State is that offensively, they are not very good. The Cats are only averaging 20 points/game over their last 4 games. The key indicator this game will be K-State’s ability to convert 3rd downs. The Cats are converting less than 30% of the their 3rd downs in conference play and they will need to do much better than that vs Oklahoma, which is averaging 576 yards and 42 points per game. If the Cats don’t convert, the Sooners will blow K-State right out of its own stadium. With the line at 12.5, I would lean Oklahoma, but I am going to pass on this game.
West Virginia at Baylor (+9, O/U 71.5) The only case I can make for Baylor here is that it’s Homecoming at Baylor, and it’s a big deal at BU. That might give Baylor enough of an emotional edge to cover the spread. Otherwise, I would be all West Virginia at -9. I cannot trust either of these defenses enough to go with the Under, but I do not trust Baylor’s offense enough for me to bite on the Over either. We will not see another 70-63 game here, like we did in 2012. This game is a pass for me.
Kansas at TCU (-37.5, O/U 59.5) As mentioned earlier, last Saturday it took Kansas 15 drives just to move the ball past their own 35 yard line in amassing 106 total yards. This week, the Jayhawks get to go up against the Big XII’s best defense. Ouch! Seriously, I expect KU to bounce back offensively from last week’s horrendous performance. Last year, TCU beat KU in Lawrence, 24-23. The Jayhawks missed 4 FG’s in that game including one on the game’s final play. In other words, KU has the Frog’s attention. Meanwhile, the KU defense gives up an average of 475 yards and 45 points per game. TCU’s offense averages 465 yards and 41 points per game. Fact is, TCU is the better team, TCU is focused on getting to the playoff (they are in at this point, IMHO), and they remember last year’s game. I won’t lay 37.5 points with anyone, but that Over looks enticing. KU will have to score some to get there, but at 400 yards and 25 points per game, plus OC Meacham’s familiarity with TCU’s scheme and personnel, I think they can. Playing the Over on this game. I can see a 52-14 type of game here.