In a similar vein to Spartan's SEC thoughts, here are my Big 12 thoughts as conference play gets underway this weekend. I'm passing on 2 of the 3 conference games, but I do have a bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys at -12.5 and I have a bet on Houston -6 vs Texas Tech. Here are my thoughts on all these games:
West Virginia at Kansas (+21.5) Kansas is a team that I thought would take a step forward this year, but instead has gone backwards. Back-to-back lopsided losses to MAC teams have really taken this team down. Meanwhile, the machine at West Virginia rolls on. West Virginia averages 581 yards & 46 points per game. And that includes 592 yards in the opening game against Virginia Tech (how did West Virginia only score 24 points in that game?). Put that up against a Jayhawk defense that allows 431 yards and 34 points per game and this look like an easy, lopsided win for West Virginia. But spot the home team 21.5 points to the home team in a conference game? West Virginia likely covers, but Kansas was no easy out at home last year. I’ll pass.
Oklahoma at Baylor (+27.5) Oklahoma might be the best team in the country right now, they are easily one of the top 3. Baylor has been right down there with Kansas, maybe even lower with the home loss to FCS Liberty. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind Oklahoma wins this game. But by 4 touchdowns? Not so fast my friend! Baylor is getting 4 starters back in the starting line-up from injury tomorrow night. This includes their best defensive and best offensive players, which could give Baylor a boost. On the qualitative side, you could see some light bulbs going off in the heads of Baylor's defensive players last week at Duke. They were able to hold Duke to 4-18 on third downs, and Duke failed to score on several occasions (I believe it was 4 or 5 occasions) from inside the red zone. But, make no mistake, Oklahoma is a much better team. I’ll pass on the bet, lean to Baylor and the points and lean to the Under (62) on the total.
TCU at Oklahoma State (-12.5) Easily the best game of the day in the Big 12. A couple of high powered offenses, with OSU averaging 54 points per game and TCU averaging 49. Oklahoma State is averaging 607 yards per game, TCU 507. OSU has been the better passing team, TCU the better running team. Statistically, TCU has the better defense, but one must look behind the numbers here. I go back to last week, when TCU fell behind SMU 19-7 before rallying for a 56-36 win. That won’t happen this week. You fall behind this OSU team 19-7, the Cowboys will proceed to step on your throat. What particularly bothers me here from the TCU standpoint is that SMU gained 463 yards and scored 36 points last week against this TCU defense. Of TCU’s opponents so far, SMU runs the most similar offense to Oklahoma State. In other words, I think OSU’s offense will put up big numbers on this TCU defense, particularly at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has an underrated “bend but don’t break” defense. They will give up some points here. Oklahoma State has dominated TCU the past couple of years (49-29 in 2015, 31-6 in 2016), and I see it happening again. My biggest concern here is that TCU gets a backdoor cover. I have a bet on the Cowboys at -12.5. OSU 42, TCU 24.