Had a good week 8-2 on posted plays. 2 losers: Wake and OK ST
Note that I still do not believe TCU is that good (def. not #9 as in this week rankings),
and Ok ST is much better than it showed last week.
Hope will be the same or better next week
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Wash -11/55 at Colorado
Not much to analyze here. Last year for all the marbles at neutral site, the Huskies
got an easy win over the Buffs 41-10 while holding a better version of Buffs' offense than
this year to only 163 total yards. This year while Washington are loaded, the Buffs have
many holes on both sides of the ball to fill.
It's difficult to win on the road vs conference foes, but I believe the Huskies can easily
cover the double digits spread.
Pick: Washington -11 WINNER
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383 Ok St -12/71 vs TCU
Do not know why but I have read so many articles all saying how bad TCU beat
Arkansas 2 weeks ago. The truth is the game is very close, one-score game 14-7 until
TCU scored another TD with 2 min left in the game. On ensuing KickOff, the Hogs
fumbled the ball at own 13 yards and allowed TCU made 1-play TD. Otherwise the game
was very tight the whole time.
Seeing how well the Cowboys are playing, I do not believe the Frogs can keep it close.
Pick: OK ST -12 LOSER
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321 NC State +12/51 at Florida ST
I like the Wolfpack a veteran team and always play tough against the Seminoles,
esp. the Noles will be without their QB and have not played since a loss to Alabama
in season opener.
Pick: NC State +12 WINNER SU
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309 Wake -5.5/48.5 at Appl ST
The Demon Deacons are doing very well this year and should be able to repeat it
at Appalachian State.
Pick: Wake -5.5 LOSER
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394 Tex A&M -2.5/56 vs Arkansas
This is not a bet on A&M but more a fade of Arkansas. The Hogs do not have any kind of
identity on offense or defense. Head coach Bielema is the worst one in Power-5 schools
Pick: Tex A&M -2.5 WINNER
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329 WV -21/70.5 at Kansas
Both teams have found their QBs. Interestingly both QBs are xfer products. West Virginia's
Will Grier was from Florida Gators, and Jayhawks' Peyton Bender was from Wash ST.
Both passing offenses are thrived with these 2 newly infused bloods. They are averaged
around 360 passing yards per game, with Will Grier appears to be a much better QB.
QB Grier's QBR is 179 ranked #12 in the nation, while QB Bender is ravaged with INT.
The Jayhawks offense is improved a lot under new OC Doug Meacham (from TCU)
but the defense is still horrid. This year their defense is even worse with 15 of the top
2-deep left. I know it’s difficult at Kansas but DC Clint Bowen needs to go. He seems to
be there forever, and do not see any progress made.
Last year, WV got a home blow-out win 48-21 while racking up 605 total yards. Not much
different this year besides the facts that both passing attacks are more lethal.
Picks: WV -21 and Over 70.5 WINNER/WINNER
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Utah -3.5/60 at Arizona
This intriguing game features strength vs strength as PAC12 number #1 rushing offense
of Wildcats taking on the PAC12 number #1 rush defense (both LY and TY) of Utes.
The Wildcats rushing numbers are really inflated with huge games vs bad opponents,
506 rush yards vs Northern Arizona and 326 rush yards vs UTEP, while gaining only 152
rush yards and 3.9 ypc vs Houston, a similar defense they will face in Utes.
Utah has been breaking in little-used So. QB Tyler Huntley, a true dual-threat QB who
has taken over the starting role from last year starter Troy Williams. It pays off big time.
After 3 games, Huntley completed 72% for 868 yards 5 TD and 2 INT while also added
212 yards on the ground and 3 more TD. The offense TY is getting their fans excited
with a more aggressive approach coordinated by former Eastern Washington Troy Taylor.
New dual-threat QB Huntley poses added threat on rushing attack when defense is not
planning for. The passing game got a huge boost with Oregon transfer, top receiver
Darren Carrington, who already has 26 receptions for 409 yds and 4 TD in only 3 games.
Arizona presents a much tougher test for Utes than their first 3 games, but Utah is
well-equipped to slow down the rush, and able to score on Wildcats improved defense.
Utah is clearly a better team than Arizona but weird things have happened in this
series especially in Tucson. I will take a chance with the Utes in this game.
Pick: Utah -3.5 WINNER
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Boise ST -12.5 vs Virginia
HC Mendenhall is doing a good job in his 2nd year with the Cavaliers. The offense
return an improved QB, but the backfield is missing 2 top RBs from last season. The
receiving corp is a lot better with top 2 receivers, Zaccheaus and Dowling, continue
to lead the team and both are on par to reach the 1000-yards mark this year each.
Defense is solid with plenty defensive players returning, and seem to adapt well to
new coaching staff.
Boise offense, without the starting QB Rypien, looked very shaky and VERY conservative
last week over its conference foes, New Mexico. QB Rypien is practicing and projected
to play this week, but he may not be 100% (concussion in game 2)
The defense is still very good against the run, but pass defense is vulnerable (gave up
433 passing yards and 73% completion to Wash St) and the OL is shaky to say the least.
These 2 facts could play into the Cavaliers strengths, and they are hungry for a revenge
for a 2015 loss in which QB Rypien ripped Virginia secondary apart (321 yds 69% 3 TD)
The Broncos will need QB Rypien at his 100% to get a win, but a double digits spread
is difficult to cover.
Pick: Virginia +12 WINNER SU
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USF -19/63 vs Temple
These 2 teams were kind of even last year with the Owls owned the upper hand to
earn the right to the AAC championship game. This year both teams lost their HC,
but the Bulls seem to adjust to new coaching staff much faster and better. The Owls
are struggling on both sides of the ball, and both on the ground or through the air.
The Owls got blown-out by Notre Dame, giving up 422 rushing yards, and barely got close
wins over Villanova (Yes this team play football too) and Massachusetts.
Last week the Bulls were impressive in a blow-out win over Illinois, racking up 47 points
and 680 total yards. The offense is explosive as usual, and the defense, though not
spectacular, but decent enough to keep the game out of reach after half-time.
If we remember coach Strong during his time at Louisville, he was not shy to put
a ton of points over weak opponents. I believe the Bulls will convincingly win
by 4 TDs or more
Pick: USF -19 WINNER