Yes, football is upon us. Our packages are here.
I did want to share one of my favorite early-season handicapping tools. Many people go to Phil Steele's returning starter list, and of course that's a great first step. For me however, I like this one much better. It's list of returning PRODUCTION - not starters. It's one thing to bring back eight guys on offense, but if the three you lost were your QB, leading rusher, and leading receiver, that certainly changes things. Anyhow, sharing.
In Tuesday MLB - some thoughts, in addition to our biggest bet tonight.
In my opinion Worley has a much higher upside than A.J. Cole and as of now I could make a great case for the Fish RL. I don't trust either bullpen, magnified by last nights' game, but needing 11 to win a bet is a lot, so I will wait and if it's low scoring through 2 or 3 innings look for an in-game total at a better number.
It's hard for me not to look at the over in the Reds' game, even though the early money says otherwise. Perdomo has been on my fade train for about a month, and trusting Romano to keep anyone in check, especially at that price, is not a great option IMO.
I know the Phillies are not a great team and that Atlanta is a much better team than most expected this season, but the Braves at -170 with no bullpen per se isn't happening.
Early on and overnight everyone was on Godley and the D-Backs, for fairly obvious reasons. It's interesting that this morning the Los Doya money showed up. I have to like LA here simply because they've got the far superior bullpen - so I lean under here as well.
Everyone seems to like Toronto, and that's always a bad sign when you see nobody on the other side. I like Happ, but not THAT much. CC can go either way and I certainly get the other side there, but I cannot get the Osuna meltdown in Houston out of my head, and I'll bet Toronto can't either.
I think the Indians/Rockies over is worth a shot at 8. I came close to betting over 7.5 last night, and clearly waiting was a bad idea. Colorado can score off anyone, and we wouldn't need THAT many - and Marquez against a DH might give a few more meaningful at bats to the Indians.