Notre Dame (4-8 SU/4-8 ATS in 2016)
June 10 Power Rating: 83.84 (#20)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: QB DeShone Kizer, WR Torii Hunter, DE Isaac Rochell, DT Jarron Jones, LB James Onwualu and CB Cole Luke
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #13
2016 Season Recap: While Notre Dame was one of the least experienced teams in the country heading into 2016 (only 8 returning starters), expectations were still high as the Fighting Irish entered the season ranked in the Top 10 and they had a season win total of 9.5 (South Point). The season did not start well as the Irish lost a heartbreaker to Texas (Irish were 3.5-point favorites). After a win and cover over Nevada, the Irish were outright upset at home to Michigan State as TD favorites (trailed 36-7 at one point). Notre Dame then suffered their biggest upset loss since 1996 as they lost to Duke 38-35 as 3-TD favorites (defensive coordinator was fired after game). After a win and cover over Syracuse, the Irish questionably attempted 26 passes in Hurricane-like conditions in a loss at N.C. State. Notre Dame would then blow a 10-point lead in an upset loss to Stanford the following week. In the next game, the Irish blew a 20-0 lead only to comeback and beat Miami, FL 30-27. The Notre Dame defense couldn’t get off the field in an upset loss to Navy. After a blowout win over Army, Notre Dame blew a 17-point lead vs Virginia Tech and their bowl hopes were dashed. In the finale, Notre Dame lost by 18 to USC in a misleading game (Trojans scored 3 non-offensive TD’s).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 30.9 53
Rushing 163.3 80
Passing 254.3 48
Total 417.6 62
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 27.8 62
Rushing 182.4 72
Passing 196.4 21
Total 378.8 42
Notre Dame (SU: 4-8, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 6-6)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/4
|
at Texas 2OT
|
L
|
-3.5
|
47-50
|
o56
|
9/10
|
Nevada
|
W
|
-27.5
|
39-10
|
u62
|
9/17
|
Michigan St
|
L
|
-7.5
|
28-36
|
o50.5
|
9/24
|
Duke
|
L
|
-20.5
|
35-38
|
o60
|
10/1
|
† Syracuse
|
W
|
-12
|
50-33
|
o74
|
10/8
|
at NC State
|
L
|
+2.5
|
3-10
|
u58.5
|
10/15
|
Stanford
|
L
|
-3
|
10-17
|
u54.5
|
10/29
|
Miami, FL
|
W
|
+1
|
30-27
|
u58
|
11/5
|
† Navy
|
L
|
-7
|
27-28
|
u64
|
11/12
|
† Army
|
W
|
-13.5
|
44-6
|
u54.5
|
11/19
|
Virginia Tech
|
L
|
-1
|
31-34
|
o53
|
11/26
|
at USC
|
L
|
+17.5
|
27-45
|
o59.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Irish welcome back eight starters on offense but must replace QB DeShone Kizer (2,925 yards, 26-9 TD-to-INT ratio). While Brandon Wimbush is short on experience, he is extremely talented. Notre Dame does return their top rusher in Josh Adams who had 933 rushing yards in 2016.
Notre Dame also returns six of their top seven receivers led by Equanimeous St. Brown (961 yards) and bring back talented TE Alize Mack who sat out last year due to academics. The offensive line is also experienced as the Irish return 4 starters (76 career starts) led by two All-Americans in OG Quenton Nelson and OT Mike McGlinchey.
The defense should be improved under new defensive coordinator Mike Elko who did a solid job at Wake Forest. The Irish return seven starters led by LB Nyles Morgan (94 tackles). However, they do have some question marks on the defensive line after losing both Isaac Rochell (55 tackles) and Jarron Jones (9 tackles for loss).
The special teams unit returns kicker Justin Yoon (13 of 17 FG’s in 2016) and punter Tyler Newsome who averaged 43.5 yards per punt a year ago. The Irish also bring back return man C.J. Sanders who returned two kicks for TD’s, but must improve their coverage units that allowed 4 TD’s in 2016.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #7 Brandon Wimbush 6-1 226 So
RB #33 Josh Adams 6-2 220 Jr
WR #6 Equanimeous St. Brown 6-5 204 Jr
WR #83 Chase Claypool 6-4 224 So
WR #81 Miles Boykin 6-4 225 So
TE #86 Alize Mack 6-4 245 So
LT #68 Mike McGlinchey 6-8 312 Sr
LG #56 Quenton Nelson 6-5 329 Jr
C #53 Sam Mustipher 6-2 305 Jr
RG #71 Alex Bars 6-6 320 Jr
RT #78 Tommy Kraemer 6-5 313 RS Fr
Defense:
DE #93 Jay Hayes 6-3 281 Jr
NT #99 Jerry Tillery 6-6 308 Jr
DT #55 Jonathan Bonner 6-3 284 Jr
DE #9 Daelin Hayes 6-3 255 So
WLB #48 Greer Martini 6-3 240 Sr
MLB #5 Nyles Morgan 6-1 238 Sr
ROVER #23 Drue Tranquill 6-2 230 Jr
CB #20 Shaun Crawford 5-9 175 So
SS #21 Jalen Elliot 6-1 208 So
FS #24 Nick Coleman 6-0 187 Jr
CB #27 Julian Love 5-11 190 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star TE Brock Wright 6-5 252
4-star OL Robert Hainsey 6-4 292
4-star TE Cole Kmet 6-4 235
4-star OL Josh Lugg 6-6 280
4-star DL Darnell Ewell 6-4 280
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Temple
|
-19
|
9/9
|
Georgia
|
-2
|
9/16
|
at Boston College
|
-10
|
9/23
|
at Michigan St
|
-6
|
9/30
|
Miami, OH
|
-23
|
10/7
|
at North Carolina
|
-2
|
10/14
|
Bye
|
|
10/21
|
USC
|
+4
|
10/28
|
NC State
|
-5
|
11/4
|
Wake Forest
|
-15
|
11/11
|
at Miami, FL
|
+6
|
11/18
|
Navy
|
-17
|
11/25
|
at Stanford
|
+8
|
Schedule Analysis: Notre Dame will play a more difficult schedule in 2017 than last year but could still easily double their win total from a year ago. The Irish open the season against Temple where they figure to be at least 2-TD favorites. The Georgia game in Week 2 will be in the toss-up range with Notre Dame slightly favored. The Irish figure to be a TD-plus favorite at Boston College in Week 3 and should also be favored at Michigan State in Week 4. In likely their biggest favorite role of the season, Notre Dame hosts Miami, OH (at least 3-TD favorites). After that, the Irish are at North Carolina in another close favorite role. After a bye week, Notre Dame could be in their first underdog role of the season when they host USC. The Irish then play a sneaky-good NC State at home where they will likely be a FG-plus favorite. Notre Dame should be around 2-TD favorites in their last two home games against Wake Forest and Navy, but figure to be at TD-underdogs in their road trips to Miami (FL) and Stanford. Overall, I have Notre Dame listed as a favorite in nine games. However, four of those are by 6-points or less and two are by 2-points or less. Therefore, I’d set their season win total at 7.5 or 8.