UCLA (4-8 SU/4-8 ATS in 2016)
June 10 Power Rating: 80.26 (#29)
Returning Starters: 15 (9 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: TE Nate Iese, LT Conor McDermott, DE Takkarist McKinley, DT Eddie Vanderdoes, LB Jayon Brown, SS Randall Goforth and CB Fabian Moreau
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #18
2016 Season Recap: The Bruins came into last season with relatively high expectations as their season win total was 8.5 (South Point). They returned a Heisman contender at QB in Josh Rosen and had 9 starters back on defense. The season started with an OT loss on the road to Texas A&M (Bruins had trailed 24-9 late 4Q). After a non-covering win over UNLV, the Bruins got a hard-fought victory at BYU (UCLA did lead 17-0 at one point). The Stanford game was a heart-breaker as the Cardinal scored a TD with :24 left and then got a fumble-return TD on the final play to give Bruins’ backers a bad beat. After a blowout win over Arizona, the season would begin to fall apart starting with an upset loss at Arizona State (Bruins were nearly double-digit favorites). With QB Rosen hurt, the UCLA would lose at Washington St (still covered), at home in a shootout to Utah (were favored by a TD) and then lost by 10 at Colorado (UCLA covered). After a 2-TD win over Oregon State, a red-hot USC team proved to be too much for the Bruins in the second half. Then in the finale, UCLA had their worst performance of the season in a 36-10 loss at Cal (Bruins were FG favorites).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.9 96
Rushing 84.3 127
Passing 295.6 19
Total 379.8 91
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 27.5 59
Rushing 171.5 63
Passing 210.5 43
Total 382.0 47
UCLA (SU: 4-8, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 5-7)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
at Texas A&M OT
|
L
|
+3.5
|
24-31
|
o54
|
9/10
|
UNLV
|
L
|
-26.5
|
42-21
|
o58
|
9/17
|
at BYU
|
L
|
-3.5
|
17-14
|
u51
|
9/24
|
Stanford
|
L
|
+2.5
|
13-22
|
u47
|
10/1
|
Arizona
|
W
|
-12.5
|
45-24
|
o58.5
|
10/8
|
at Arizona St
|
L
|
-9.5
|
20-23
|
u58
|
10/15
|
at Washington St
|
W
|
+7
|
21-27
|
u52.5
|
10/22
|
Utah
|
L
|
-6.5
|
45-52
|
o43
|
11/3
|
at Colorado
|
W
|
+13
|
10-20
|
u57.5
|
11/12
|
Oregon St
|
W
|
-11.5
|
38-24
|
o49.5
|
11/19
|
USC
|
L
|
+13.5
|
14-36
|
u52.5
|
11/26
|
at California
|
L
|
-3
|
10-36
|
u70.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Bruins welcome back nine starters on offense led by QB Josh Rosen who will be looking to rebound in a big way after missing the last six games of the 2016 season due to a shoulder injury. UCLA was abysmal running the football last year as the Bruins averaged only 84 rushing yards per game (2nd worst in the country). However, they do welcome back their top five rushers led by Soso Jamabo (321 yards).
The Bruins also bring back their top two receivers in Darren Andrews (709 yards in 2016) and Jordan Lasley (620 yards). The offensive line is also experienced with four starters back (85 career starts) led by 1st-team All-Pac-12 center Scott Quessenberry.
The defense does lose some front-line players including leading tackler Jayon Brown (119 tackles) at LB and first-round draft pick Takkarist McKinley (10 sacks) at DE. The Bruins still welcome back six starters led by LB Kenny Young (90 tackles) and safety Jaleel Wadood (76 tackles).
The special teams unit struggled last year but they do bring back both kicker J.J. Molson (12 of 20 FG’s in 2016) and punter Austin Kent who averaged 38.3 yards per punt.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #3 Josh Rosen 6-4 220 Jr
RB #1 Soso Jamabo 6-2 215 Jr
WR #7 Darren Andrews 5-10 195 Sr
WR #82 Eldridge Massington 6-2 212 Sr
WR #2 Jordan Lasley 6-1 205 Jr
TE #81 Caleb Wilson 6-4 235 So
LT #77 Kolton Miller 6-8 310 Jr
LG #75 Andre James 6-4 305 So
C #52 Scott Quessenberry 6-4 315 Sr
RG #69 Najee Toran 6-2 305 Sr
RT #76 Kenny Lacy 6-4 305 Sr
Defense:
DE #91 Jacob Tuioti-Mariner 6-2 285 Sr
DT #99 Matt Dickerson 6-4 295 Sr
DT #75 Boss Tagaloa 6-2 310 So
DE #11 Keisean Lucier-South 6-4 240 So
WLB #2 Josh Woods 6-2 240 Jr
MLB #42 Kenny Young 6-1 240 Sr
SLB #17 DeChaun Holiday 6-2 225 So
CB #1 Darnay Holmes 5-10 195 Fr
SS #6 Adarius Pickett 5-11 200 Jr
FS #4 Jaleel Wadood 5-9 185 Sr
CB #22 Nate Meadors 5-11 195 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star DL Jaelan Phillips 6-6 250
5-star DB Darnay Holmes 5-10 195
4-star DL Greg Rogers 6-3 305
4-star OL Stephan Zabie 6-6 290
4-star DB Elijah Gates 5-11 170
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/3
|
Texas A&M
|
-3
|
9/9
|
Hawaii
|
-25
|
9/16
|
at Memphis
|
-1
|
9/23
|
at Stanford
|
+12
|
9/30
|
Colorado
|
-6
|
10/7
|
Bye
|
|
10/14
|
at Arizona
|
-5
|
10/21
|
Oregon
|
-1
|
10/28
|
at Washington
|
+15
|
11/3
|
at Utah
|
+1
|
11/11
|
Arizona St
|
-9
|
11/18
|
at USC
|
+17
|
11/24
|
California
|
-14
|
Schedule Analysis: The Bruins play a pretty tough schedule in 2017 starting with a home game vs Texas A&M (Bruins are about a FG favorite). After what should be a comfortable win over Hawaii, UCLA plays at a sneaky-good Memphis team in what could even be a toss-up as far as the line goes. After that, the Bruins head to Stanford where they have lost 9 straight games to the Cardinal and will most likely be double-digit underdogs. UCLA hosts defending Pac-12 South Champ Colorado and should be favored around a TD. After a bye, the Bruins will also be near TD favorites at Arizona. A home game against Oregon is a likely toss-up but UCLA will be significant underdogs at Washington. After that a road trip to Utah will most likely be in the “pick-em” range. The Bruins should be comfortable favorites in their final two home games against Arizona State and California, but in between those games, UCLA will be a significant underdog at rival USC. Overall I have the Bruins favored in 8 of their 12 games. However, five of those favorite roles are by a TD or less and three are by a FG or less. Therefore, I’d set their season win total around 6.5 or 7.