Stanford (10-3 SU/6-7 ATS in 2016)
June 10 Power Rating: 87.31 (#14)
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
Key Losses: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Michael Rector, RG Johnny Caspers, DE Solomon Thomas and S Dallas Lloyd
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #14
2016 Season Recap: Fresh off an 11-win campaign capped off by a blowout win in the Rose Bowl, the expectation was that Stanford would take a step back in 2016 (season win total was only 8.5 at South Point). Much of it had to do with a brutal schedule. The Cardinal opened the season with two impressive wins over Kansas St and USC at home. Stanford then got a come-from-behind win over UCLA (scored defensive TD on final play to get cover). The season then took a major turn for the worse when the Cardinal were crushed at Washington 44-6 (+3.5) and then were shockingly destroyed by Washington State at home 42-16 as TD favorites. After a come-from-behind win at Notre Dame, the Cardinal lost their 2nd straight home game, this time to Colorado 10-5. At that point, they were only 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS. However the Cardinal would proceed to win their final 6 games of the season, 5 of them by double-digits highlighted by a blowout win at Oregon and their 7th straight win in the “Big Game” over Cal. The Cardinal also got a victory in their bowl game in dramatic fashion over North Carolina as they have now won at least 10 games in six of their last 7 seasons.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 26.3 83
Rushing 208.9 35
Passing 158.2 115
Total 367.1 103
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 20.4 18
Rushing 144.5 38
Passing 223.6 61
Total 368.1 38
Stanford (SU: 10-3, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 5-8)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/2
|
Kansas St
|
L
|
-13.5
|
26-13
|
u49
|
9/17
|
USC
|
W
|
-7.5
|
27-10
|
u51
|
9/24
|
at UCLA
|
W
|
-2.5
|
22-13
|
u47
|
9/30
|
at Washington
|
L
|
+3.5
|
6-44
|
o45
|
10/8
|
Washington St
|
L
|
-7
|
16-42
|
o55.5
|
10/15
|
at Notre Dame
|
W
|
+3
|
17-10
|
u54.5
|
10/22
|
Colorado
|
L
|
-1.5
|
5-10
|
u50
|
10/29
|
at Arizona
|
W
|
-5
|
34-10
|
u50
|
11/5
|
Oregon St
|
L
|
-16.5
|
26-15
|
u42
|
11/12
|
at Oregon
|
W
|
-3
|
52-27
|
o58.5
|
11/19
|
at California
|
W
|
-10.5
|
45-31
|
o62.5
|
11/26
|
Rice
|
L
|
-34
|
41-17
|
o51.5
|
12/30
|
† North Carolina
|
L
|
-2.5
|
25-23
|
u54.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Cardinal do bring back eight starters on offense but lose all-everything RB Christian McCaffrey who incredibly had 45.7% of the team’s touches the last two years. At QB, Keller Chryst (905 pass yards, 10-2 TD-to-INT ratio in 2016) figures to be the starter provided he is 100-percent after tearing his ACL in the bowl game. The running game will feature Bryce Love who did a solid job replacing an injured McCaffrey at times last year as he ran for 783 yards and averaged 7.1 yards per carry.
The receiving unit should be much improved as they welcome back their top two guys led by Trenton Irwin (442 yards). The offensive line should also be improved as they welcome back 9 of their top 10 guys (65 career starts).
The defense also returns eight starters but must replace All-American DE Solomon Thomas who led the Cardinal with 62 tackles and eight sacks. The linebacker unit is very deep as they return four players who started all 13 games and is one of the nation’s best. They also return 7 of their top 8 DB’s led by CB’s Alijah Holder and Quenton Meeks.
The special teams unit must replace kicker Conrad Ukropina (22 of 27 FG’s last year) and also return man McCaffrey. They do bring back punter Jake Bailey.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #10 Keller Chryst 6-5 234 Sr
RB #20 Bryce Love 5-10 191 Jr
FB #35 Daniel Marx 6-2 252 Sr
WR #2 Trenton Irwin 6-2 203 Jr
WR #19 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 6-3 224 Jr
TE #9 Dalton Schultz 6-6 240 Sr
LT #64 David Bright 6-5 299 Sr
LG #63 Nate Herbig 6-4 346 So
C #73 Jesse Burkett 6-4 307 Sr
RG #54 Nick Wilson 6-3 286 Jr
RT #75 A.T. Hall 6-5 287 Sr
Defense:
DE #80 Eric Cotton 6-6 273 Sr
DT #66 Harrison Phillips 6-4 285 Sr
DE #97 Dylan Jackson 6-6 267 Jr
OLB #32 Joey Alfieri 6-3 238 Sr
ILB #20 Bobby Okereke 6-3 235 Sr
ILB #44 Kevin Palma 6-2 247 Sr
OLB #34 Peter Kalambayi 6-3 243 Sr
CB #13 Alijah Holder 6-2 182 Sr
SS #8 Justin Reid 6-1 202 Jr
FS #2 Brandon Simmons 6-0 195 Sr
CB #24 Quenton Meeks 6-2 204 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star OT Foster Sarell 6-7 315
5-star OT Walker Little 6-7 310
5-star QB Davis Mills 6-4 205
4-star TE Colby Parkinson 6-7 235
4-star CB Paulson Adebo 6-1 184
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
8/26
|
† Rice
|
-32
|
9/2
|
Bye
|
|
9/9
|
at USC
|
+10
|
9/16
|
at San Diego St
|
-9
|
9/23
|
UCLA
|
-12
|
9/30
|
Arizona St
|
-17
|
10/7
|
at Utah
|
-6
|
10/14
|
Oregon
|
-9
|
10/21
|
Bye
|
|
10/26
|
at Oregon St
|
-11
|
11/4
|
at Washington St
|
-2
|
11/10
|
Washington
|
-1
|
11/18
|
California
|
-22
|
11/25
|
Notre Dame
|
-8
|
Schedule Analysis: The Cardinal open up the season a week early in Sydney, Australia and will be significant favorites over Rice. After a bye Stanford plays at USC, which could be the Cardinal’s only underdog role of the entire season. A possible “trap game” at San Diego State follows, but Stanford figures to be at least TD favorites in that one. The Cardinal finally get their first home games of the season as they host UCLA and Arizona State in back-to-back weeks and will be likely double-digit favorites in both. Stanford does play at Utah and then hosts Oregon and will likely be favored in both games. After a bye week, Stanford travels to Corvallis on a Thursday night and then has a very tough road trip to Washington State. With a possible Pac-12 North title at stake, Stanford gets Washington at home and that game figures to have a line around “pick-em”. The Cardinal close out their season with two home games against rivals Cal and Notre Dame and figure to be favorites in both. While I have the Cardinal favored in 11 of their 12 games, 6 of those roles are by single-digits and two are by less than a FG. Therefore, I would set their season win total around 9 or 9.5.