California (5-7 SU/5-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 71.82 (#65)
Returning Starters: 14 (6 offense, 8 defense)
Key Losses: QB Davis Webb, RB Khalfani Muhammad, WR Chad Hansen, LT Aaron Cochran, LG Chris Borrayo, RT Steven Moore and S Khari Vanderbilt
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #61
2016 Season Recap: Fresh off an 8-win season in 2015, the Bears were expected to take a big step back in 2016. Cal returned only nine starters and lost the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in QB Jared Goff. Their season win total was only 4 (South Point). The season got started early with a win over Hawaii by 20 in Sydney, Australia. After a shoot-out loss at San Diego State where Cal was a TD dog, the Bears pulled the outright upset over Texas winning 50-43 (+7.5). After a loss at Arizona State, Cal made a huge goal-line stand in the final seconds to beat Utah. Their topsy-turvy season continued the following week with an upset loss at Oregon State in overtime (were favored by 2 TD’s). After a bye, the Bears beat Oregon in double overtime as the game featured one of the highest totals’ lines (89) in college football history. At 4-3, their season would take a turn for the worse as the Bears lost by 21 at USC, were destroyed by 39 at home to Washington, lost by 35 at Washington State and again came up short in the “Big Game” vs Stanford (7th straight loss in series). Cal did finish the season on a bright note crushing UCLA 36-10, but would fire head coach Sonny Dykes in early January.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 37.1 22
Rushing 154.3 88
Passing 358.8 4
Total 513.2 10
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 42.6 127
Rushing 272.8 127
Passing 245.4 84
Total 518.3 125
California (SU: 5-7, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 8-4)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
8/26
|
† Hawaii
|
L
|
-20.5
|
51-31
|
o66.5
|
9/10
|
at San Diego St
|
W
|
+7
|
40-45
|
o60
|
9/17
|
Texas
|
W
|
+7.5
|
50-43
|
o80.5
|
9/24
|
at Arizona St
|
L
|
+4
|
41-51
|
o84.5
|
10/1
|
Utah
|
W
|
-1
|
28-23
|
u65
|
10/8
|
at Oregon St OT
|
L
|
-13.5
|
44-47
|
o71
|
10/21
|
Oregon 2OT
|
W
|
-1
|
52-49
|
o89
|
10/27
|
at USC
|
L
|
+19.5
|
24-45
|
u75
|
11/5
|
Washington
|
L
|
+19.5
|
27-66
|
o75.5
|
11/12
|
at Washington St
|
L
|
+17
|
21-56
|
u81
|
11/19
|
Stanford
|
L
|
+10.5
|
31-45
|
o62.5
|
11/26
|
UCLA
|
W
|
+3
|
36-10
|
u70.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Bears return six starters on offense and new head coach Justin Wilcox brought in former Eastern Washington head coach Beau Baldwin. However, they have some major holes to fill starting with QB Davis Webb who threw for 4,295 yards and 37 TD’s in 2016. The Bears also lose leading rusher Khalfani Muhammad (827 yards) and the Pac-12’s leading receiver in Chad Hansen (1,249 yards and 11 TD’s).
As for the replacements, the Bears are in decent shape at RB led by Tre Watson (709 yards) and Vic Enwere (336) while they return Freshman All-American Demetris Robertson (767 yards) at WR. At QB, Chase Forrest and Ross Bowers battled it out in the spring but a starter has not been announced. The Bears do lose three starters on the offensive line who combined to start 103 career games.
On defense, the Bears welcome back eight starters, but will be switching to a “3-4” under new defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter (former Fresno State head coach). In the Sonny Dykes era, Cal routinely fielded one of the worst defenses in the country, but expect some improvement this year. They will be led by LB’s Devante Downs (84 tackles), Ray Davison (69 tackles) and Cameron Saffle (8.5 takles for loss) who moves from DE to OLB. James Looney (8.5 tackles for loss) is the best player on the DL.
On special teams, the Bears bring back both specialists as kicker Matt Anderson was 22 of 26 on FG’s last year while punter Dylan Klumph averaged 44.8 yards per punt.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #14 Chase Forrest 6-2 205 Jr
RB #5 Tre Watson 5-11 205 Sr
WR #8 Demetris Robertson 6-0 185 So
WR #17 Vic Wharton III 5-11 210 Jr
WR #1 Melquise Stovall 5-9 185 So
TE #11 Ray Hudson 6-3 245 Sr
LT #79 Patrick Mekari 6-4 300 Jr
LG #72 Kamryn Bennett 6-3 310 Jr
C #57 Addison Ooms 6-4 310 Jr
RG #62 Dwayne Wallace 6-4 335 Sr
RT #71 Jake Curhan 6-6 324 RS Fr
Defense:
DE #44 Zeandae Johnson 6-4 280 So
NG #97 Tony Mekari 6-1 295 Sr
DE #9 James Looney 6-3 280 Sr
OLB #51 Cameron Saffle 6-3 250 Jr
ILB #31 Raymond Davison 6-2 225 Sr
ILB #1 Devante Downs 6-3 245 Sr
OLB #19 Cameron Goode 6-3 225 RS Fr
CB #2 Darius Allensworth 5-11 195 Sr
SS #17 Luke Rubenzer 5-11 200 Sr
FS #21 Evan Rambo 6-4 210 So
CB #18 Marloshawn Franklin Jr 5-11 190 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
3-star QB Chase Garbers 6-2 210
3-star CB Elijah Hicks 5-11 180
3-star WR Taariq Johnson 6-2 220
3-star RB Biaggio Ali Walsh 5-10 190
3-star WR Jeremiah Hawkins 5-8 170
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
at North Carolina
|
+10
|
9/9
|
Weber St
|
-27
|
9/16
|
Ole Miss
|
+3
|
9/23
|
USC
|
+16
|
9/30
|
at Oregon
|
+15
|
10/7
|
at Washington
|
+23
|
10/13
|
Washington St
|
+6
|
10/21
|
Arizona
|
-4
|
10/28
|
at Colorado
|
+9
|
11/4
|
Oregon St
|
-2
|
11/11
|
Bye
|
|
11/18
|
at Stanford
|
+20
|
11/24
|
at UCLA
|
+12
|
Schedule Analysis: It’s not going to be an easy first season for new head coach Justin Wilcox and the Bears. ESPN analytics graded the Bears’ 2017 schedule as the toughest in the entire country as they play 11 Power 5 conference teams and 9 of them could be top 40 teams. The season starts with a road trip to North Carolina where Cal figures to be a double-digit underdog. After an expected win over Weber State, Cal gets a rare home game vs an SEC school in Ole Miss (Bears figure to be a slight underdog). The Pac-12 schedule is brutal, starting with a home game vs USC and road trips to Oregon and Washington. Cal will be a double-digit underdog in all three games. The Bears do get a bit of a break in their next four games as they host Washington State, Arizona and Oregon State while playing Colorado on the road (they’ll be favored in two of those four games). However, the season finishes up with road trips to Stanford and UCLA where the Bears will be large underdogs in each. Overall, I have Cal favored in only 3 games but I’d set their season win total around 3.5.