Michigan (10-3 SU/6-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 88.41 (#12)
Returning Starters: 5 (4 offense, 1 defense)
Key Losses: RB De’Veon Smith, WR Amara Darboh, TE Jake Butt, LT Ben Braden, RG Kyle Kallis, RT Erik Magnuson, DE Taco Charlton, DE Chris Wormley, NT Ryan Glasgow, SLB Jabrill Peppers, MLB Ben Gedeon, CB Jourdan Lewis and SS Delano Hill
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #5
2016 Season Recap: Fresh off a 10-win season and with 14 returning starters, expectations were extremely high for Michigan in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s second season. According to Matthew Holt (VP of CG Technology), more future tickets were written on Michigan than any other team in the country. Their season win total was also among the highest in the country at 10 (South Point). They certainly didn’t disappoint their backers early as they crushed Hawaii and UCF by a combined 114-17. They rallied in the second half against Colorado and thumped eventual Big Ten Champ Penn State 49-10. After a non-covering win over Wisconsin, they hammered Rutgers and Illinois by a combined 119-8. The Wolverines broke their losing streak vs Michigan State, but couldn’t cover the inflated line. After a blowout win over Maryland, the Wolverines were upset as 3-TD favorites at Iowa. Without QB Wilton Speight, they failed to cover in a win over Indiana. In the regular season finale, the Wolverines outplayed the Buckeyes for the first three quarters, but eventually lost in double-overtime. In the bowl game, they were laying a full TD to a really good Florida State team and lost outright by one point.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 40.3 11
Rushing 212.9 33
Passing 212.0 85
Total 424.9 58
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 14.1 2
Rushing 119.2 15
Passing 142.5 1
Total 261.8 1
Michigan (SU: 10-3, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 9-4)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Hawaii
|
W
|
-38.5
|
63-3
|
o55
|
9/10
|
UCF
|
W
|
-36
|
51-14
|
o54
|
9/17
|
Colorado
|
L
|
-18
|
45-28
|
o56
|
9/24
|
Penn St
|
W
|
-17
|
49-10
|
o57
|
10/1
|
Wisconsin
|
L
|
-11
|
14-7
|
u44.5
|
10/8
|
at Rutgers
|
W
|
-30.5
|
78-0
|
o52.5
|
10/22
|
Illinois
|
L
|
-39.5
|
41-8
|
u52.5
|
10/29
|
at Michigan St
|
L
|
-24.5
|
32-23
|
o51.5
|
11/5
|
Maryland
|
W
|
-30.5
|
59-3
|
o54
|
11/12
|
at Iowa
|
L
|
-21.5
|
13-14
|
u51
|
11/19
|
Indiana
|
L
|
-25
|
20-10
|
u51
|
11/26
|
at Ohio St 2OT
|
W
|
+4
|
27-30
|
o46
|
12/30
|
† Florida St
|
L
|
-7
|
32-33
|
o51
|
2017 Outlook: The Wolverines are the least experienced team in the country with only five returning starters. One of those returning starters is QB Wilton Speight who threw for 2,538 yards (61.6%) with an 18-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio. At RB, the Wolverines lose leading rusher De’Veon Smith (901 yards and 10 TD’s in 2016) but do bring back Chris Evans who ran for 614 yards and averaged seven yards per carry as a true freshman.
The receiving unit was also decimated by graduation as the Wolverines lose their top three in WR’s Amara Darboh (862 yards) and Jehu Chesson (500 yards) a long with TE Jake Butt (546 yards). Look for a pair of talented true freshman in Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black to step up. The OL loses three key starters, but will be led by All-American candidate Mason Cole who will switch from center to left tackle.
The Wolverines return only one starter (LB Mike McCray) from last year’s defense that ranked No. 1 in the country in total and No. 2 in scoring defense. A Michigan-record eight players were drafted from the unit led by all-everything Jabrill Peppers. However, the defense will not be short on talent as DE Rashan Gary leads a formidable DL.
The special teams unit was also hit hard as it loses Kenny Allen who handled all of the kicking duties. Allen hit 19 of 23 FG’s and averaged 43.3 yards per punt last year.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #3 Wilton Speight 6-6 243 Sr
RB #12 Chris Evans 5-11 200 So
FB/HB #80 Khalid Hill 6-2 263 Sr
WR #13 Eddie McDoom 6-0 180 So
WR #9 Donovan Peoples-Jones 6-2 190 Fr
TE #89 Ian Bunting 6-7 252 Sr
LT #52 Mason Cole 6-5 305 Sr
LG #74 Ben Bredeson 6-5 310 So
C #57 Patrick Kugler 6-5 303 Sr
RG #50 Michael Onwenu 6-3 350 So
RT #76 Juwann Bushell-Beatty 6-6 311 Sr
Defense:
DE #3 Rashan Gary 6-5 287 So
NT #90 Bryan Mone 6-4 310 Sr
DT #73 Maurice Hurst 6-2 282 Sr
DE #15 Chase Winovich 6-3 245 Sr
WLB #9 Mike McCray 6-4 248 Sr
MLB #10 Devin Bush 6-0 196 Jr
VIPER #7 Khaleke Hudson 6-0 205 So
CB #24 Lavert Hill 5-11 168 So
SS #13 Josh Metellus 6-0 204 So
FS #23 Tyree Kinnel 5-11 206 Jr
CB #22 David Long 5-11 187 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star WR Donovan Peoples-Jones 6-2 190
5-star DT Aubrey Solomon 6-3 305
4-star OL Cesar Ruiz 6-4 336
4-star DE Luiji Vilain 6-4 238
4-star LB Drew Singleton 6-2 213
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
† Florida
|
-3
|
9/9
|
Cincinnati
|
-29
|
9/16
|
Air Force
|
-34
|
9/23
|
at Purdue
|
-23
|
9/30
|
Bye
|
|
10/7
|
Michigan St
|
-18
|
10/14
|
at Indiana
|
-10
|
10/21
|
at Penn St
|
+7
|
10/28
|
Rutgers
|
-32
|
11/4
|
Minnesota
|
-18
|
11/11
|
at Maryland
|
-17
|
11/18
|
at Wisconsin
|
+4
|
11/25
|
Ohio St
|
+2
|
Schedule Analysis: The Wolverines schedule is more difficult than last year’s slate starting with the opener against a Top 15 Florida team in Arlington, TX. Michigan figures to be a slight favorite over Florida and will be significant favorites in each of their next three games against Cincinnati, Air Force and Purdue. The Wolverines get a bye before in-state rival Michigan State and then travel to Indiana (most likely a double-digit favorite in each game). Arguably, Michigan’s toughest game of the season comes the following week with a road trip to Penn State where they will be an underdog. After that, the Wolverines will be heavily favored against Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland. However, the regular season finishes up strong with a road trip to Big Ten West favorite Wisconsin and a home game vs Big Ten East favorite Ohio State (Michigan figures to be a slight underdog in each game). Overall, I have Michigan favored in nine of their 12 games with eight of those favorite roles coming by double-digits. All three of their underdog roles will be by a TD or less, so I’d set their season win total around 9.5.