Michigan State (3-9 SU/4-8 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 74.88 (#49)
Returning Starters: 9 (4 offense, 5 defense)
Key Losses: WR R.J. Shelton, TE Josiah Price, DT Malik McDowell, LB Riley Bullough, CB Darian Hicks, SS Montae Nicholson and FS Demetrious Cox
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #30
2016 Season Recap: After notching at least 11 wins in three consecutive seasons, the Spartans were expected to take a step back in 2016 with the return of only 10 starters. Their season win total was set at only 7.5 (South Point). Michigan State started off the season with a lackluster win but non-cover against Furman. After a bye week, they dominated the line of scrimmage vs Notre Dame and pulled the outright upset 36-28 (+7.5). However, the Spartans’ season would take a huge turn for the worse starting with a 30-6 loss vs Wisconsin. The next week, Michigan State would lose to Indiana in overtime. The Spartans would actually go on to become the first college football team in at least 40 years to drop five consecutive games as a favorite as they also lost outright to BYU, Northwestern and Maryland. In their largest underdog role since 1998, they covered vs in-state rival Michigan in a 32-23 loss (+24.5). However, the Spartans suffered their 6th upset loss the next week, when they were beaten by Illinois. Michigan State had a late 2-game upswing in November with a blowout win over Rutgers and a near upset of Ohio State (lost 17-16 as 21-point underdogs). However, in the finale the Spartans would get crushed by Penn State to finish 3-9, their worst season since 1982.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.1 104
Rushing 172.7 65
Passing 222.3 74
Total 395.0 75
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 27.8 61
Rushing 158.7 51
Passing 206.2 36
Total 364.8 32
Michigan State (SU: 3-9, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 5-7)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/2
|
Furman
|
L
|
-38
|
28-13
|
u60
|
9/17
|
at Notre Dame
|
W
|
+7.5
|
36-28
|
o50.5
|
9/24
|
Wisconsin
|
L
|
-3.5
|
6-30
|
u42
|
10/1
|
at Indiana OT
|
L
|
-6
|
21-24
|
u52
|
10/8
|
BYU
|
L
|
-5
|
14-31
|
u49
|
10/15
|
Northwestern
|
L
|
-6.5
|
40-54
|
o42
|
10/22
|
at Maryland
|
L
|
-3
|
17-28
|
u49
|
10/29
|
Michigan
|
W
|
+24.5
|
23-32
|
o51.5
|
11/5
|
at Illinois
|
L
|
-8.5
|
27-31
|
o47.5
|
11/12
|
Rutgers
|
W
|
-15.5
|
49-0
|
u54
|
11/19
|
Ohio St
|
W
|
+21
|
16-17
|
u49.5
|
11/26
|
at Penn St
|
L
|
+11.5
|
12-45
|
o53.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Spartans only bring back nine starters in 2017 and note that an ongoing investigation could impact several players’ status in the fall. Brian Lewerke is the favorite to start at QB coming out of the spring as he started a couple of games last year before a leg injury. The RB position might be the deepest and most talented unit on the team led by L.J. Scott (994 rushing yards in 2016) and Gerald Holmes (431 yards).
The receiving unit does lose their leader in R.J. Shelton (789 receiving yards) and also TE Josiah Price (387 yards and 5 TD’s). The leading returner is Donnie Corley (453 yards) but keep an eye on sophomore Trishton Jackson who could be a future star. The OL will be led by center Brian Allen.
The defense does lose All-American DT Malik McDowell (2nd round draft pick), LB Riley Bullough (76 tackles) and safety Montae Nicholson (86 tackles). On the positive side, leading tackler Chris Frey (96 tackles) is back along with Andrew Dowell (67 tackles). True freshman Josiah Scott could start right away at CB.
The special teams unit must replace kicker Michael Geiger (15 of 19 FG’s in 2016) but does bring back punter Jake Hartbarger who averaged 40.9 yards per punt a year ago.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #14 Brian Lewerke 6-3 213 So
RB #3 LJ Scott 6-1 231 Jr
WR #86 Trishton Jackson 6-1 183 So
WR #9 Donnie Corley 6-2 186 So
WR #18 Felton Davis III 6-4 196 Jr
TE #81 Matt Sokol 6-6 248 Jr
LT #61 Cole Chewins 6-8 278 So
LG #70 Tyler Higby 6-5 292 So
C #65 Brian Allen 6-2 305 Sr
RG #59 David Beedle 6-5 314 Jr
RT #62 Luke Campbell 6-5 297 RS Fr
Defense:
DE #48 Kenny Willekes 6-4 239 So
DT #41 Gerald Owens 6-2 300 Jr
DT #99 Raequan Williams 6-4 304 So
DE #83 Mufi Hill-Hunt 6-5 262 RS Fr
SLB #23 Chris Frey 6-2 233 Sr
MLB #35 Joe Bachie 6-2 237 So
Star #5 Andrew Dowell 6-1 221 Jr
CB #2 Justin Layne 6-2 176 So
SS #27 Khari Willis 6-0 210 Jr
FS #28 David Dowell 6-1 192 So
CB #22 Josiah Scott 5-10 166 Fr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star OG Kevin Jarvis 6-5 335
4-star WR Hunter Rison 5-11 200
4-star TE Matt Dotson 6-5 230
4-star LB Antjuan Simmons 6-1 210
3-star OT Jordan Reid 6-4 280
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Bowling Green
|
-19
|
9/9
|
Western Michigan
|
-10
|
9/16
|
Bye
|
|
9/23
|
Notre Dame
|
+2
|
9/30
|
Iowa
|
-3
|
10/7
|
at Michigan
|
+18
|
10/14
|
at Minnesota
|
+4
|
10/21
|
Indiana
|
-5
|
10/27
|
at Northwestern
|
+8
|
11/4
|
Penn St
|
+11
|
11/11
|
at Ohio St
|
+25
|
11/18
|
Maryland
|
-11
|
11/25
|
at Rutgers
|
-10
|
Schedule Analysis: The Spartans will look to rebound from a disastrous 2016 season and this year’s schedule should allow them to get off to a nice start as they open up the season with four straight home games. The Spartans will likely be sizable favorites in their first two games against Bowling Green and Western Michigan. After a bye, they get Notre Dame at home (small dog) and then host Iowa (small favorite). The schedule gets much tougher in the month of October as the Spartans play at Michigan, at Minnesota and at Northwestern (a likely underdog in all three games). November isn’t any easier as they host Penn State (likely TD-plus underdog) and then travel to Columbus where they will likely be 3-TD underdogs. Michigan State does close the season with Maryland and Rutgers where they will be likely solid favorites in each game. Overall, I have the Spartans favored in 6 games with two favorite roles of less than a TD and two underdog roles of less than a TD. I’d set their season win total around 6, but can see 6.5.