Nebraska (9-4 SU/7-5-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 75.49 (#48)
Returning Starters: 10 (4 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: QB Tommy Armstrong, RB Terrell Newby, WR Jordan Westerkamp, C Dylan Utter, DE Ross Dzuris, LB Josh Banderas and S Nate Gerry.
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #21
2016 Season Recap: After a very disappointing first season in Lincoln (6-7 with 5 losses by 5 points or less), head coach Mike Riley needed a solid 2016 season to stay off the hot seat. The Huskers returned 13 starters and expectations were relatively high (season win total was 8.5 at South Point). The season got off to a great start as they won and covered in blowout fashion against Fresno State and Wyoming. The Huskers then got a big wins over Oregon and at Northwestern. The early Big Ten schedule was soft as they racked up wins over Illinois, Indiana and Purdue (were 1-2 ATS) and started off the season 7-0 SU for the first time since 2001. Nebraska would lose a tough game in overtime at Wisconsin (Huskers did cover ATS) but were then rolled at Ohio State 62-3 the following week (QB Armstrong got hurt). Nebraska rebounded with wins and covers over Minnesota and Maryland, but were blown out at Iowa in the regular season finale 40-10 (+3). Nebraska also lost and failed to cover vs Tennessee in the bowl game. A 2-4 finish dampened the season but they still topped their season win total.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 26.5 79
Rushing 169.2 73
Passing 211.7 86
Total 380.8 90
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 23.9 33
Rushing 147.8 43
Passing 215.8 49
Total 363.7 30
Nebraska (SU: 9-4, ATS: 7-5-1, O/U: 4-9)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Fresno St
|
W
|
-29
|
43-10
|
u62.5
|
9/10
|
Wyoming
|
W
|
-25.5
|
52-17
|
o57.5
|
9/17
|
Oregon
|
P
|
-3
|
35-32
|
u73.5
|
9/24
|
at Northwestern
|
W
|
-8.5
|
24-13
|
u48
|
10/1
|
Illinois
|
L
|
-20.5
|
31-16
|
u53
|
10/15
|
at Indiana
|
W
|
-3.5
|
27-22
|
u58
|
10/22
|
Purdue
|
L
|
-24
|
27-14
|
u60.5
|
10/29
|
at Wisconsin
|
W
|
+8.5
|
17-23
|
u43.5
|
11/5
|
at Ohio St
|
L
|
+17.5
|
3-62
|
o53.5
|
11/12
|
Minnesota
|
W
|
-6.5
|
24-17
|
u48
|
11/19
|
Maryland
|
W
|
-13.5
|
28-7
|
u49.5
|
11/25
|
at Iowa
|
L
|
+3
|
10-40
|
o45
|
12/30
|
† Tennessee
|
L
|
+9.5
|
24-38
|
o59
|
2017 Outlook: Nebraska returns just 10 starters in 2017 including just four starters on offense. The Huskers do lose a 4-year starting QB in Tommy Armstrong but Armstrong (more of a runner) wasn’t a great fit for Mike Riley’s pro-style offense. Tulane transfer Tanner Lee exited the spring as the front-runner at QB. At RB, the Huskers also lose their leading rusher in Terrell Newby (879 yards in 2016) but the replacements led by Tre Bryant looked good in the spring.
The receiving corps also took a hit as they lose their leader in Jordan Westerkamp (526 yards) and Brandon Reilly (412 yards). Stanley Morgan, Jr is the leading returner (453 yards) while De’Mornay Pierson-El also figures to get more touches. The OL loses center Dylan Utter but returns four end of season starters led by LT Nick Gates.
The defense also takes a major hit as the Huskers lose their top four tacklers including LB Josh Banderas (93 tackles) and S Nathan Gerry (74 tackles) who was Nebraska’s only NFL draft choice. The DL also loses their best pass rusher in Ross Dzuris (13 TFL’s). It is also note worthy that Nebraska is transitioning to 3-4 defense under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco (former Connecticut head coach).
All the key players return on special teams led by kicker Drew Brown (12 of 14 FG’s in 2016). Caleb Lightbourn who averaged 39.7 yards per punt last year is also back along with return specialists Tre Bryant and De’Mornay Pierson-El.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #13 Tanner Lee 6-4 220 Jr
RB #18 Tre Bryant 5-11 205 So
WR #8 Stanley Morgan Jr 6-1 200 Jr
WR #15 De’Mornay Pierson-El 5-9 195 Sr
WR #10 JD Spielman 5-9 180 RS Fr
TE #88 Tyler Hoppes 6-4 245 Sr
LT #68 Nick Gates 6-5 290 Jr
LG #67 Jerald Foster 6-3 310 Jr
C #62 Cole Conrad 6-5 300 Jr
RG #63 Tanner Farmer 6-4 305 Jr
RT #77 David Knevel 6-9 315 Sr
Defense:
DE #91 Freedom Akinmoladun 6-4 270 Jr
NT #44 Mick Stoltenberg 6-5 305 Jr
DT #94 Khalil Davis 6-2 290 So
OLB #22 Alex Davis 6-5 255 So
ILB #5 Dedrick Young 6-1 230 Jr
ILB #12 Luke Gifford 6-3 235 Jr
OLB #3 Marcus Newby 6-1 235 Sr
CB #1 Lamar Jackson 6-3 210 So
SS #24 Aaron Williams 5-11 190 Jr
FS #10 Joshua Kalu 6-1 195 Sr
CB #8 Chris Jones 6-0 195 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star WR Tyjon Lindsey 5-9 160
4-star DB Elijah Blades 6-2 170
4-star LB Avery Roberts 6-1 230
4-star QB Tristan Gebbia 6-3 180
4-star WR Jaevon McQuitty 6-0 195
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Arkansas St
|
-14
|
9/9
|
at Oregon
|
+11
|
9/16
|
Northern Illinois
|
-16
|
9/23
|
Rutgers
|
-19
|
9/29
|
at Illinois
|
-9
|
10/7
|
Wisconsin
|
+7
|
10/14
|
Ohio St
|
+14
|
10/21
|
Bye
|
|
10/28
|
at Purdue
|
-10
|
11/4
|
Northwestern
|
-1
|
11/11
|
at Minnesota
|
+3
|
11/18
|
at Penn St
|
+19
|
11/24
|
Iowa
|
-4
|
Schedule Analysis: The Huskers’ 2017 schedule should allow an inexperienced team (just 10 returning starters) an opportunity to grow early. Nebraska will be easily favored in four of their first five games. A road trip to a much-improved Oregon team in Week 2 will be difficult. After easing into the Big Ten schedule with Rutgers and Illinois, the Huskers get both Big Ten West favorite Wisconsin and Big Ten East favorite Ohio State at home. Nebraska will likely be an underdog in both games and a sizable underdog vs the Buckeyes (lost 62-3 at Ohio State a year ago). After a bye, Nebraska will be favored at Purdue and then there is a critical two-game stretch vs a sneaky good Northwestern team and a road trip to Minnesota (two toss-up type of games). Nebraska will likely be a very large underdog at Penn State and to close out the season, the Huskers get Iowa at home. Overall, I have Nebraska favored in seven of their 12 games and with most of their lines being projected at a TD-plus for both their favorite and underdog roles, I’d put their season win total also around 7.