Iowa (8-5 SU/6-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 76.13 (#45)
Returning Starters: 14 (6 offense, 8 defense)
Key Losses: QB CJ Beathard, RB LeShun Daniels, WR Riley McCarron, TE George Kittle, DT Jaleel Johnson and CB Desmond King
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #40
2016 Season Recap: Coming off a 12-0 regular season in 2015, the Hawkeyes were expected to take a bit of a step back in 2016 (season win total was 8.5 at South Point). Still, Iowa was a preseason favorite to win the Big Ten West division. After back-to-back blowout wins over Miami (OH) and Iowa St, the season started to take a turn for the worse when they were upset by North Dakota State at home 23-21 (-14.5). The Hawkeyes followed that up with a lackluster win at Rutgers and then Iowa was upset at home again as a double-digit favorite losing to Northwestern 38-31 (-12). After back-to-back wins and covers over Minnesota and Purdue, Iowa lost their third home game of the season, this time to Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were then blown out at Penn St. A bowl bid started to come into question, but the Hawkeyes would then pull their biggest upset in at least 40 years as they took down unbeaten Michigan 14-13 as 21.5-point underdogs. Iowa then finished the regular season with blowout wins and covers over Illinois and Nebraska. However, the Hawkeyes would get handled easily in the bowl game for the third consecutive year losing 30-3 to Florida.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.9 95
Rushing 171.8 67
Passing 153.2 118
Total 325.0 121
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 18.8 13
Rushing 149.8 45
Passing 201.4 29
Total 351.2 23
Iowa (SU: 8-5, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 5-8)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Miami, Oh
|
L
|
-27.5
|
45-21
|
o51.5
|
9/10
|
Iowa St
|
W
|
-15.5
|
42-3
|
u51
|
9/17
|
N Dakota St
|
L
|
-14.5
|
21-23
|
u57.5
|
9/24
|
at Rutgers
|
L
|
-14.5
|
14-7
|
u56
|
10/1
|
Northwestern
|
L
|
-12
|
31-38
|
o44
|
10/8
|
at Minnesota
|
W
|
+2
|
14-7
|
u50.5
|
10/15
|
at Purdue
|
W
|
-11.5
|
49-35
|
o52
|
10/22
|
Wisconsin
|
L
|
+4
|
9-17
|
u42.5
|
11/5
|
at Penn St
|
L
|
+7
|
14-41
|
o52.5
|
11/12
|
Michigan
|
W
|
+21.5
|
14-13
|
u51
|
11/19
|
at Illinois
|
W
|
-9.5
|
28-0
|
u45
|
11/25
|
Nebraska
|
W
|
-3
|
40-10
|
o45
|
1/2
|
† Florida
|
L
|
+2
|
3-30
|
u40.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Hawkeyes ranked No. 121 in the country in total offense in 2016 and this year must replace QB C.J. Beathard (1,929 yards, 17-10 ratio) who was taken in the third round of the NFL Draft. In the spring, Nathan Stanley and Tyler Wiegers were battling to take his place and Stanley looks like the favorite.
At RB, the Hawkeyes lose LeShun Daniels who ran for 1,058 yards (10 TD’s) but they do return their leader in Akrum Wadley (1,081 yards and 10 TD’s). The receiver position is thin as Iowa loses last year’s leader in Riley McCarron (517 yards) while Jerminic Smith (314 yards) and TE George Kittle (314 yards) also depart. The offensive line looks strong as they return four of their five starters led by Sean Welsh and James Daniel.
The Iowa defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed only 18.8 ppg a year (No. 13 in country). While they lose DL Jaleel Johnson (7.5 sacks) and CB Desmond King (4-year starter), their LB corps could be among the best in the country. Josey Jewell (124 tackles), Bo Bower (91 tackles) and Ben Niemann (69 tackles) all return. Iowa did suffer a blow as FS Brandon Snyder tore his ACL in spring but his replacement Jake Gervase had a fine spring game.
On special teams, Iowa does have to replace punter Ron Coluzzi who averaged 41.1 yards per punt. On the positive side, kicker Keith Duncan (hero of Michigan game) does return. Iowa will have to find a replacement for return specialist Desmond King.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #4 Nathan Stanley 6-5 212 So
RB #25 Akrum Wadley 5-11 195 Sr
FB #45 Drake Kulick 6-1 240 Sr
WR #80 Devonte Young 6-0 200 So
WR #89 Matt Vandenberg 6-1 195 Sr
TE #86 Peter Pekar 6-4 252 Sr
LT #52 Boone Myers 6-5 310 Sr
LG #69 Keegan Render 6-4 310 Jr
C #78 James Daniels 6-4 295 Jr
RG #79 Sean Welsh 6-3 295 Sr
RT #75 Ike Boettger 6-6 307 Sr
Defense:
DE #98 Anthony Nelson 6-7 260 So
DT #95 Cedrick Lattimore 6-5 295 So
DT #99 Nathan Bazata 6-2 287 Sr
DE #40 Parker Hessee 6-3 257 Jr
OLB #44 Ben Niemann 6-3 230 Sr
MLB #43 Josey Jewell 6-2 236 Sr
WLB #41 Bo Bower 6-2 235 Sr
CB #15 Joshua Jackson 6-1 192 Jr
SS #19 Miles Taylor 5-10 203 Sr
FS #30 Jake Gervase 6-1 210 Jr
CB #5 Manny Rugamba 6-0 185 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star DL A.J. Epenesa 6-5 270
4-star OT Tristan Wirfs 6-5 315
3-star OT Mark Kallenberger 6-6 260
3-star DB Djimon Colbert 6-1 215
3-star QB Peyton Mansell 6-3 210
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Wyoming
|
-13
|
9/9
|
at Iowa St
|
-1
|
9/16
|
North Texas
|
-25
|
9/23
|
Penn St
|
+9
|
9/30
|
at Michigan St
|
+3
|
10/7
|
Illinois
|
-16
|
10/14
|
Bye
|
|
10/21
|
at Northwestern
|
+7
|
10/28
|
Minnesota
|
-5
|
11/4
|
Ohio St
|
+15
|
11/11
|
at Wisconsin
|
+17
|
11/18
|
Purdue
|
-17
|
11/24
|
at Nebraska
|
+4
|
Schedule Analysis: While Iowa should be favored in their three non-conference games, two are those games could be more difficult than they appear. Wyoming won their division in the Mountain West last year and have a likely first-round NFL draft pick at QB. A road trip to Iowa St will not be easy either as the Cyclones continue to make strides under Matt Campbell. The Hawkeyes also play one of the tougher Big Ten schedules as Iowa pulls the two best teams in the Big Ten in Penn State and Ohio State from the East division. While the Hawkeyes get both the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes at home, they figure to be more than a TD underdog in each game. The Hawkeyes also must travel to what figures to be an improved Michigan State team. Then in West division play, Iowa has to travel to Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska arguably the three best teams in the division outside of Iowa. Overall, I only have Iowa favored in six games this season and I’d set their season win total right around 6 or 6.5.