Minnesota (9-4 SU/6-6-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 75.61 (#47)
Returning Starters: 14 (8 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: QB Mitch Leidner, WR Drew Wolitarsky, RT Jonah Pirsig, C Tyler Moore, S Damarius Travis and CB Jaylen Myrick
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #55
2016 Season Recap: Last year was the first full season under head coach Tracy Claeys and it ended up being his last. The Gophers did get off to an expected 3-0 start (big favorites in all three) but only covered one of those games. The Gophers would suffer back-to-back close losses at Penn St and against Iowa. Minnesota played one of their best games of the season in beating Maryland 31-10 as FG underdogs. The Gophers would win their next three games, but again had trouble covering large spreads. After a close loss to Nebraska, Minnesota beat Northwestern as home underdogs, but in the finale would lose to rival Wisconsin for the 13th consecutive season. After an off-field scandal, which led to a near boycott of the Holitday bowl by the players, a short-handed Minnesota team upset Washington St 17-12 (+8.5). However, head coach Tracy Claeys was let go after the season and the Gophers hired P.J. Fleck from Western Michigan. Overall, Minnesota went OVER their season win total of 6 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 29.3 63
Rushing 183.6 54
Passing 173.6 111
Total 357.2 107
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 22.1 21
Rushing 117.8 14
Passing 230.9 73
Total 348.8 21
Minnesota (SU: 9-4, ATS: 6-6-1, O/U: 5-8)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/1
|
Oregon St
|
L
|
-12.5
|
30-23
|
u56
|
9/10
|
Indiana St
|
W
|
-24.5
|
58-28
|
o54.5
|
9/24
|
Colorado St
|
L
|
-17
|
31-24
|
u56
|
10/1
|
at Penn St OT
|
P
|
+3
|
26-29
|
u55.5
|
10/8
|
Iowa
|
L
|
-2
|
7-14
|
u50.5
|
10/15
|
at Maryland
|
W
|
+3.5
|
31-10
|
u46.5
|
10/22
|
Rutgers
|
L
|
-18
|
34-32
|
o45
|
10/29
|
at Illinois
|
W
|
-8.5
|
40-17
|
o46.5
|
11/5
|
Purdue
|
L
|
-17.5
|
44-31
|
o55.5
|
11/12
|
at Nebraska
|
L
|
+6.5
|
17-24
|
u48
|
11/19
|
Northwestern
|
W
|
+1.5
|
29-12
|
u46
|
11/26
|
at Wisconsin
|
W
|
+14.5
|
17-31
|
o43
|
12/27
|
† Washington St
|
W
|
+9.5
|
17-12
|
u61
|
2017 Outlook: Minnesota returns 8 starters on offense but loses 3-year starting QB Mitch Liedner. Conor Rhoda got 16 pass attempts a year ago but Demry Croft came out of the spring as the favorite to win the job. No matter who ends up starting, the Gophers have to improve upon a pass attack that ranked No. 111 in the country.
The Gophers do have one of the best 1-2 punches at RB in the Big Ten in Rodney Smith (1,158 rushing yards, 16 TD’s) and Shannon Brooks (650 yards). The receiver position did take a hit with the loss of leader Drew Wolitarsky (860 yards). Look for 6’5” Rashad Still (349 yards last year) to lead the group. Depth was a major issue on the offensive line in the spring with only six scholarship players but Fleck got a major coup bringing in Ed Warinner to coach the offensive line.
The defense was the strength of the team a year ago as they were No. 21 in both scoring (22.1) and total defense (348.8) in the country. This year’s team returns six starters and is led by DT Steven Richardson (7 sacks). They do lose leading tackler Damarius Travis (83 tackles) but return four of their next five leaders including linebacker Blake Cashman who also had 7.5 sacks. Depth is an issue at cornerback.
On special teams, Emmit Carpenter is back at kicker after hitting 22 of 24 FG’s last year including 10 for 10 from 40-plus! Ryan Santoso is also back at punter after averaging 40.9 yards per punt a year ago.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #11 Demry Croft 6-5 200 RS So
RB #1 Rodney Smith 5-11 205 RS Jr
WR #88 Rashad Still 6-5 205 Jr
WR #5 Melvin Holland Jr 6-3 205 RS Jr
WR #6 Tyler Johnson 6-2 185 So
TE #80 Nate Wozniak 6-10 275 RS Sr
LT #73 Donnell Greene 6-7 345 RS Jr
LG #64 Conner Olson 6-5 295 RS Fr
C #62 Jared Weyler 6-4 305 RS Jr
RG #76 Vincent Calhoun 6-4 330 Sr
RT #78 Garrison Wright 6-4 320 RS Sr
Defense:
DE #92 Tai’yon Devers 6-4 215 So
DT #96 Steven Richardson 6-0 300 Sr
DT #99 Andrew Stelter 6-4 290 Sr
DE #46 Winston DeLattiboudere 6-3 240 RS So
WLB #36 Blake Cashman 6-2 225 Jr
MLB #12 Cody Poock 6-2 230 RS Sr
SLB #13 Jonathan Celestin 6-1 220 Sr
CB #31 Kiondre Thomas 6-0 180 RS Fr
SS #8 Duke McGhee 6-1 205 RS Sr
FS #11 Antoine Winfield Jr 5-10 195 So
CB #34 Antonio Shenault 5-11 180 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
3-star OT Blaise Andries 6-5 290
3-star S Ken Handy-Holly 6-2 200
3-star WR Demetrius Douglas 6-0 175
3-star CB Adam Beck 6-2 185
3-star WR Chris Autman-Bell 6-1 180
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
8/31
|
Buffalo
|
-27
|
9/9
|
at Oregon St
|
+2
|
9/16
|
Middle Tennessee
|
-16
|
9/23
|
Bye
|
|
9/30
|
Maryland
|
-10
|
10/7
|
at Purdue
|
-9
|
10/14
|
Michigan St
|
-4
|
10/21
|
Illinois
|
-15
|
10/28
|
at Iowa
|
+5
|
11/4
|
at Michigan
|
+18
|
11/11
|
Nebraska
|
-3
|
11/18
|
at Northwestern
|
+8
|
11/25
|
Wisconsin
|
+9
|
Schedule Analysis: The P.J. Fleck era could get off to a really good start as the Golden Gophers have a relatively soft first half of the season. Minnesota will most likely be favored in six of their first seven games and five of those could come by a TD or more. The only possible underdog role prior to late October is a road trip to Oregon State in Week 2. If Minnesota pulls a small outright upset there, they could be off to a 7-0 start. However, their last five games of the season are brutal as Minnesota travels to Iowa, Michigan and Northwestern while also hosting Nebraska and Wisconsin (have lost 13 straight games to Badgers). Minnesota will mostly likely be an underdog in at least four of those games. Overall, I have Minnesota favored in seven games and since the close games are split out (Minnesota favored in two games by a TD or less and are an underdog in two games by a TD or less), I’d set the Gophers season win total around seven.