Auburn (8-5 SU/8-4-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 89.90 (#9)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: OL Alex Kozan, DT Montravius Adams, DE Carl Lawson, S Johnathan Ford and DB Joshua Holsey
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #10
2016 Season Recap: After a disappointing 2015 season, the Tigers entered 2016 with little fan fare. They lost to Clemson by 6 in the opener (still covered) and then hammered Arkansas St. After losing at home to Texas A&M, head coach Gus Malzahn was starting to feel some heat. However, Auburn would pull the upset over LSU and that jump-started an impressive win streak. Auburn would win and cover each of their next 4 games all by double-digits highlighted by a 56-3 destruction of Arkansas (Auburn had 543 rushing yards). The Tigers only managed a 7-point win over Vanderbilt (were favored by 26) and that’s when the season started to dip as RB Kamryn Pettway and QB Sean White were banged up. They would lose at Georgia 13-7 as double-digit favorites and then in the finale would lose to Alabama 30-12 (game pushed). In the Sugar Bowl, Auburn was easily handled by Oklahoma 35-19. Despite the late season struggles, the Tigers still topped their season win total of 6.5 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 31.2 49
Rushing 271.3 6
Passing 169.5 112
Total 440.8 43
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 17.1 7
Rushing 132.8 27
Passing 229.2 67
Total 361.9 28
Auburn (SU: 8-5, ATS: 8-4-1, O/U: 4-9)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Clemson
|
W
|
+8
|
13-19
|
u62.5
|
9/10
|
Arkansas St
|
W
|
-20.5
|
51-14
|
o52.5
|
9/17
|
Texas A&M
|
L
|
-3
|
16-29
|
u55
|
9/24
|
LSU
|
W
|
+3.5
|
18-13
|
u46
|
10/1
|
UL-Monroe
|
W
|
-32.5
|
58-7
|
o56.5
|
10/8
|
at Miss St
|
W
|
-3
|
38-14
|
u55
|
10/22
|
Arkansas
|
W
|
-10.5
|
56-3
|
o53.5
|
10/29
|
at Ole Miss
|
W
|
-4.5
|
40-29
|
o65
|
11/5
|
Vanderbilt
|
L
|
-26
|
23-16
|
u46
|
11/12
|
at Georgia
|
L
|
-10
|
7-13
|
u50
|
11/19
|
Alabama A&M
|
W
|
-54
|
55-0
|
u76
|
11/26
|
at Alabama
|
P
|
+18
|
12-30
|
u46.5
|
1/2
|
† Oklahoma
|
L
|
+2.5
|
19-35
|
u65
|
2017 Outlook: The Tigers return 8 starters on offense but the biggest weakness of Auburn in recent years has been their passing offense (ranked No. 112 last year). The Tigers addressed that need big-time getting JUCO QB Jarrett Stidham who started at Baylor in 2015 as a true freshman. Stidham wowed many in the spring game going 16 of 20 for 267 yards (multiple NFL caliber throws) and is the clear-cut favorite to get the job.
At RB, the Tigers have a great 1-2 punch in Kamryn Pettway (1,224 yards in 2016) and Kerryon Johnson (895 yards, 11 TD’s in 2016). The WR position is deep and talented but mainly unproven. Keep an eye out for Nate Craig-Myers who had a big spring. The OL returns 3 starters led by OT Braden Smith.
The defense returns 7 starters including their top 3 tacklers. The unit is led SS Tray Matthews (76 tackles last year) who is the “CEO” of the defense. Tre’ Williams (67 tackles) and Deshaun Davis (63 tackles) highlight a LB corps. However, the defensive line did suffer a couple of big losses in Montravius Adams (8.5 tackles for loss) and Carl Lawson (9 sacks) who both were selected in the NFL draft.
The Tigers return arguably the best kicker in the country in Daniel Carlson who is a 2-time Lou Groza finalist (28 of 32 FG’s last year including 11 of 14 from 40-plus). They do have a question mark at punter in trying to replace Kevin Phillips.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #8 Jarrett Stidham 6-3 214 Jr
RB #36 Kamryn Pettway 6-0 235 Jr
WR #3 Nate Craig-Myers 6-2 213 So
WR #81 Darius Slayton 6-2 190 So
WR #12 Eli Stove 6-0 183 So
HB #27 Chandler Cox 6-1 239 Jr
LT #78 Darius James 6-4 324 Sr
LG #77 Marquel Harrell 6-3 308 So
C #73 Austin Golson 6-5 312 Sr
RG #64 Mike Horton 6-4 318 So
RT #71 Braden Smith 6-6 303 Sr
Defense:
DE #3 Marlon Davidson 6-3 282 So
DT #95 Dontavius Russell 603 310 Jr
DT #5 Derrick Brown 6-5 316 So
BUCK #4 Jeff Holland 6-2 249 Jr
SLB #49 Darrell Williams 6-2 244 Jr
MLB #57 Deshaun Davis 5-11 246 Jr
WLB #30 Tre’ Williams 6-2 225 Sr
CB #13 Javaris Davis 5-10 186 So
SS #28 Tray Matthews 6-1 209 Sr
FS #14 Stephen Roberts 5-11 189 Sr
CB #6 Carlton Davis 6-1 203 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star OT Calvin Ashley 6-6 310
4-star QB Jarrett Stidham 6-3 214
4-star LB Tadarian Moultry 6-2 225
4-star OL Nick Brahms 6-3 276
4-star RB Devan Barrett 6-0 190
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Georgia Southern
|
-31
|
9/9
|
at Clemson
|
+7
|
9/16
|
Mercer
|
-43
|
9/23
|
at Missouri
|
-11
|
9/30
|
Mississippi St
|
-16
|
10/7
|
Ole Miss
|
-15
|
10/14
|
at LSU
|
+6
|
10/21
|
at Arkansas
|
-7
|
10/28
|
Bye
|
|
11/4
|
at Texas A&M
|
-4
|
11/11
|
Georgia
|
-8
|
11/18
|
ULM
|
-38
|
11/25
|
Alabama
|
+4
|
Schedule Analysis: The non-conference action gets started with Georgia Southern’s pesky option offense and then Auburn will travel to Clemson to take on the defending National Champions. Auburn will be around a TD underdog in that one despite all of Clemson’s personnel losses. The Tigers will most likely be a double-digit favorite in each of their next four games. They have their second really tough road game of the season on October 14 when they travel to Death Valley and take on LSU. Again, Auburn will be around a TD underdog. After that, they take on an Arkansas team that will be hell bent on revenging a 56-3 humiliation at the hands of Auburn a year ago. After a much-needed bye week, the Tigers play their third straight SEC road game where they will be slight favorites over Texas A&M. The season wraps up with three straight home games, but the first one is against likely SEC East favorite Georgia while the season as always wraps up with the Iron Bowl against the Crimson Tide. Overall, I have Auburn favored in 9 games (three by 4-8 points) and an underdog in 3 games (all by a TD or less) and I’d set their season win total at 9.