I have Dabbled in the Stock Market a lot for a very long time, not as much as I used to as it is becoming more and more difficult to Find Value, and even when you do there are outside forces that often can blow you out of the water. I am still long on many plays but the Buy Low/Sell High thing is not for me anymore, or at least for right now...
However, because I have done this I have chatted often with Stock Brokers, exchanging ideas, and there is no doubt that play the Stocks is so very much like Betting Sports. I am not going to go into all of the reasons that are similar as that is a conversation for the future but one of the things I have heard over and over is that you Must TRUST YOUR NUMBERS. Betting Sports has changed quite a bit and unlike the Old Days that many of us remember, there are many more forces that Move a Betting Line. Info is not only King right now, it's instant, and with more betting options, there are more people doing it, sharing info, and spreading the word.
I say the above to say this. Betting is certainly about being on the right side of the play. But it's also about getting the Best Number, which can increase your profitability as much as 3 to 5% or even more. But you don't have to get the Best Number every time and the fact is you will not.
Case in Point: My Biggest Play this past Saturday was Miss State/Auburn UNDER the Total. I put this play out early in the week at 56 because every indication was to me that that would be the best number. But it was not. In fact it did not take long for it to jump to 58. But it Didn't Stop there! It went to 59 and even 59.5 and 60 at a couple of books. During the process I was bombarded with questions about My Big Play. "Hey Greg the SHARPS are on the OVER." "Hey Greg what should I do? Not play it?" Hey Greg, looks like you blew this one."
Throughout the process I did TRUST my number and continuously told people that the Line Move makes this play even more worthy. Should you NOT Play it? Of course you should! You got a better number!! In this particular case it was a "Market Mover" that made this number jump and we are seeing more and more of that. Market Mover defined as a Bettor that moves lines when he bets or when he makes public his bet. Unfortunately this guy does NOT know the SEC like I do.
The Final in that game was 17-9. I won. But that's not the point. The point is DO THE WORK. When you are done TRUST YOUR NUMBERS. All of the SHARPS Talk Frankly makes me sick to my stomach. It's Bad Info and it's hurts Bettors more that it helps them. In fact it doesn't help anyone at all. But that's another discussion for later as well. I ramble..
A 173-128 Forum Alternative Plays.
As usual this week I will College and Professional Football Plays, many of the Alternative Nature, ie Halftimes 1st and 2nd, Team Totals, etc. I was 1-2 on these last week. Yikes!! We will hope for better things..