I went 5-3 overall last night and 5-2 in my totals plays. I really had only on horrendous play and that was the Texas Southern/ Cal Poly Under play. In my Omaha/ North Dakota State Under the teams come combined for 54 points in the last 10 minutes and 30 points in the last minutes and the game was never closer that 18 points at all during that stretch. Omaha just never ran clock at all with the huge lead and I lost on on a bucket with 3 seconds to go in the game. Then Another loss was on a teaser as San Fran lost by 8 and I had them at +7 in the teaser. They were like 4-25 from 3 point land which doomed that pick for me. I did get a luck one as I had the under 144 in the Tennessee/ Iowa game and the teams went to OT and Iowa cored just 1 point in that session. I won the pick by 1 point. Lets hope for some breaks the right way today.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Wisconsin/ American Over 121: Yes this is an Over play. The Wisconsin Badgers have been playing at a faster this year and it has resulted in the highest scoring Wisconsin team in the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers have averaged 75.3 ppg overall and 70.3 ppg away from home and while American has allowed 61.1 ppg away from home we note that Patriot League offenses and not the same as big 10 offenses. We also note that the Badgers defense has been allowing more points than usual this year (64.6 ppg) and American has scored 63.2 ppg away from home this year. The Eagles are also a great shooting team, hitting 49.4% of their shots overall and 49.9% on the road. Both teams are good from long range and at the FT line so we should get extra points there. I can see this game being played in the 130's.
North Dakota State/ Oklahoma Under 152: I know that the Sooners love to push tempo but I feel that this NDSU team can slow them down enough to keep this game under the total. The Bison don't really push tempo, but they do shoot the ball well and that is why they score allot. I feel their only way to win is to slow the game down an just look for the best shot. They may hit it, but it will take more possessions away from the Sooners as the game goes on. On offense the Sooners can score in bunches, but I just don't expect that to happen here vs a Bison team that has been playing lockdown defense of late, allowing just 58.6 ppg in their last 11 games. Those last 11 games have averaged just 128.8 ppg and just 1 of those games have seen more tan 136 points scored and even that 1 game saw just 146 points put up. The Sooners haven't payed allot of defense this year, but they have played better of late, allowing just 71 ppg in their last 5 games. This should also be a pretty tight game throughout, meaning we should get that very slow paced last 8 minutes or so. I like this game to stay in the lower 140's at best here. I think that the Bison will dictate the pace and that their defense will also keep the Sooners from scoring a ton here.
New Mexico State/ San Diego State Under 127: The Aztecs are a patient team on offense, while their defense is stifling, as they come in allowing just 57.8 ppg on the year, including just 53.2 ppg in their last 5 games. On offense the Aztecs have scored just 68.4 ppg on the year, but they have really struggled down the stretch, scoring just 62.8 ppg in their last 5 games and New Mexico State can really play some defense as well. The Aggies have allowed just 67.5 ppg on 40.6% shooting on the year, while in their last 9 games they have given up just 57.4 ppg. Both teams will play this one close to the vest and rely on their defense and that may very well keep this game from putting up more than 120 points.
8 POINT TEASER--- Florida -13 & Michigan State -6 & Louisville -8.5
2 UNIT PLAYS
Cincinnati/ Harvard Under 122.5: Cincinnati is a very offensively challenged team and they have scored just 53.7 ppg on neutral courts this year. Harvard is a team that plays solid defense and will slow the game down on offense as well. Both teams play great defense and offense at a slow pace. Should see no more than 115 points scored in this one.
Oregon -5 over BYU: Both teams have been playing very well of late, but the Ducks have played in a much tougher conference all year and I feel that have what it takes to move on in this one. Both teams can score plenty of points and both give up plenty but the Ducks have the ability to play a bit more defense than BYU, and that will be the difference here. I look for Oregon to hit their FT's down the stretch as they win this one by at last 8 points.
Arizona State/ Texas Under 142: As much as they try to think they are, the Longhorns are not really an uptempo team, especially of late as they have averaged just 63.8 ppg on 41% shooting in their last 5 games. ASU has allowed just 71 ppg in their last 5 games (Regulation), and just 68.9 ppg on 41.5% shooting for the year, so they can keep Texas in the 60's in this game. For the year Texas has allowed 70 ppg on 39.1% shooting, while in their last 5 games they have given up just 65 ppg on 36.5% shooting, so they should be able to hold this ASU offense in the 60's as well.
8 POINT TEASER--- Villanova -8.5 & North Dakota State +11.5 & St Joes +13.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Dayton/ Ohio State Under 131
Michigan/ Wofford Over 129
Louisville/ Manhattan Over 142.5
Top Plays Overall 151-145-7 (-23.9 Units)... 5 Unit 0-0-0 (0.0 Units)... 4 Unit 6-4-0 (+6.4 Units)... 3 Unit 145-141-7 (-30.3 Units)
Top Play Totals 104-93-4 (+5.6 Units)... Top Play Teasers 22-30-0 (-36.3 Units)
Other Plays Overall 275-213-13 (+61.2 Units)... Other Play Totals 191-140-5 (+72.4 Units)... Teasers 11-14-0 (-6.7 Units)