After such a hot streak i have come back to earth a bit with two split days in a row. I did hit another 4 unit play last night and Im 5-2 on those for the year. Let's have a great day everyone. BOL
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona State /Utah Under 135: Hard to see this game hitting the 130s at all as both teams play a slow brand of ball play both can play excellent defense as well. Arizona State just allowed Arizona to put up 91 and 87 points respectively, but that was on the road and now they are at home, where they have allowed just 61.1 ppg on 38.2% shooting overall, including 26.9% from long range. The Utes have played excellent defense this year, allowing just 62.8 ppg on 41.4% shooting overall, including 31.8% from long range. Offensively, Utah has done all their damage at home as they have averaged just 56.7 ppg in their 2 true road games. Both teams have averaged well into the 70's on offense overall this year, but most of that has been because of big numbers they put up in non-conference play, as Utah has averaged 68.1 ppg in Pac-12 play, while ASU has put up just 70 ppg in conference play, including 65.5 ppg in their two conference home games. They teams seem to play a bit more conservative in conference play and that should lead to a game in the 120's here.
Arizona/ Colorado Under 131.5: Colorado's offense took a big hit when Dinwiddie went down as they now have just 3 players that average 9.9 ppg or more, while the 4 leading scored puts up less than 7 ppg. So how much will they score in this one? Im not thinking a whole lot, especially in Arizona. A big reason that the Cats are ranked #1 has been because of their stellar play at the defensive end of the floor. Arizona Ranks 4th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 56.7 ppg and they also rank 3rd in defensive FG%, allowing just 37% shooting. At home their numbers are even better as they allow just 52.8 ppg on 34.8% shooting on their home floor. Really hard to see a weakened Colorado offense score more than 55 points in this one. Arizona puts up 77.9 ppg at home, but still they are not an uptempo offense. They just shot the ball so well and that why they put up so many points, but Colorado has played some solid defense this year, allowing just 67.8 ppg on 42.1% shooting overall and they have allowed just 65 ppg on 41.7% shooting on the road. The Buffaloes really lack scoring punch so they will have to slow the game down and rely on their better than average defense to keep them in this game. Arizona has no problem playing a slow paced game, especially knowing they don't have to score a tone to win this game. 70-55 sound about right for this one.
Cincinnati/ Central Florida Under 129: Thanks to great defensive play and a slow pace the Bearcats have been an Under machine the last few years as 41 of their last 51 lined games have gone Under the total, while the Under also is 39-14 in their last 53 at home. Very strong numbers indeed. This year their home games have gone 6-1 to the under, while their 3 AAC home games have all gone Under with an average of just 123.7 ppg being scored. Overall Bearcat games have gone 12-1 to the Under this year, and in then AAC all 6 games have gone under with no more than 127 points scored in any of those games. Cincinnati allows just 56.2 ppg on 37.1% shooting, while UCF averages just 66.7 ppg on 38.7% shooting on the road. UCF has allowed 77 ppg on the road, but Cincinnati has scored just 66.2 ppg in their last 5 overall and just 68.3 ppg in their 3 AAC home games this year. 68-53 sounds about right for this one.
8 POINT TEASER--- Gonzaga -9.5 & Arizona -7 & Stanford +14
2 UNIT PLAYS
Florida/ Alabama Over 123.5: We all know that both teams can play great defense, but the offenses have been solid this year. Alabama Scores just 68.4 ppg on the year, but at home they do put up 70.1 ppg, while shooting 47.9% overall and 38.8% from long range in their home games. Florida comes in averaging 72.4 ppg on 46.7% shooting overall, while on the road they have averaged 71 ppg on 48.8% shooting overall, including 40% from deep. I expect these teams to just squeeze out enough points on offense to get this game to go over the total.
Nebraska/ Penn State Under 141.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Southern Miss/ Old Dominion Over 128
Denver/ Nebraska Omaha Over 136
Top Plays Overall 74-60-6 (+24.1 Units)... 5 Unit 0-0-0 (0.0 Units)... 4 Unit 5-2-0 (+11.2 Units)... 3 Unit 69-58-6 (+12.9 Units)
Top Play Totals 40-32-3 (+19.4 Units)... Top Play Teasers 12-10-0 (+0 Units)
Other Plays Overall 130-86-7 (+56.0 Units)... Other Play Totals 79-38-3 (+65.0 Units)... Teasers 3-7-0 (-7.3 Units)