Coming off a night where I should have gone 3-0 with The Citadel being the only blemish. The Citadel on most sites was 4.5 or 5 so anyone that followed my plays should have gone 3-0. West Virginia needed OT to get the win but outlasted Texas Tech. Southern was an easy win being a 5.5 point underdog winning outright by 8. Godfrey dominated as I expected putting up 32 points and 10 rebounds. Now on to our plays for Tuesday night and hoping to replicate the last week of plays.
Kansas State -5.5
Kansas State is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking in the top 50 in the nation in offensive rebounding going up against a very poor defensive rebounding team in TCU. Kansas State is also one of the top assist teams in the nation ranking in the top 5. Southwell and Johnson should be able to great some good looks against a good defensive in TCU. Gipson should be able to dominate in the paint as well as Southwell.
If TCU's defensive is good then Kansas State D is worldly ranking in the top 15 in the nation. TCU gets many of their points from the charity strip and even though Kansas State is physical they limit the amount of fouls against them. Kansas State should be able to dominate the boards and only limit TCU to one shot possessions. Additionally, TCU does a good job taking care of the ball but K State is top 30 in turnovers and even the best guards have issues against K State. The only thing I worry about is Kyan Anderson taking over the game but K State's D as well as big guards should be able to contain him.
Kansas State 65 TCU 55
College of Charleston -6.5
This match-up is all about two teams who struggle scoring. James Madison ranks in the bottom 250 teams in the nation in scoring and score 27% of their points from the line. This is going to result in James Madison having issues scoring the ball against a very good College of Charleston D who does not make stupid fouls and limits the amount of times a team goes to the line against them. College of Charleston also defends the glass very well and James Madison struggles on the offensive glass so we are looking at James Madison getting very few second chances per game. Likewise, James Madison is going to have difficultly getting a good look as College of Charleston plays a lock down man that will limit the amount of good looks James Madison gets.
Similar to James Madison, College of Charleston struggles on the offensive end ranking in the bottom 250 as well. Unlike James Madison, College of Charleston is a great O rebounding teams and should be able to create some second chances that are going to be pivotal in a low scoring affair. Hall, Baru, and Thomas are going to be able to dominate the paint and should cause plenty of mismatches and are a more experienced team.
College of Charleston 65 JM 53
Youngstown State +1
This is going to be a mismatch when Youngstown State has the ball. Youngstown State is a top 100 offense who doesn't turn the ball over going up against a bottom 300 defense. The only thing UIC does well is rebound the ball well but I am really not worried about that as Youngstown State is one of the quickest teams in the league and will be able to push the ball against a very porous UIC D and should get many good looks. Youngstown State has some great guards who will be able to push the tempo and create some open looks for other teammates. Additionally, Bobby Hain should be a force inside against an undersized UIC team.
Youngstown State is nothing special on the defensive end but neither is UIC except for Kelsey Barlow who is the leader of the UIC team. One player can only carry a team so far and with no supporting cast I don't see UIC being able to keep up against the Youngstown State team. If UIC gets down which I think they will they will have to push the pace which is playing right into the hands of Youngstown State. I think the wrong team is favored here.
Youngstown State 82 UIC 75
Ohio State +5
Two great defenses going up against eachother in this matchup however I see the mismatch is when Michigan State as the ball. Michigan State scores 30% of its points from behind the arch and Ohio State is #1 in 3 point D and #1 in overall D. Both teams play exceptional D and I actually have Ohio State as the better team. I see this coming down to the last couple possessions so if I can get +5 I will take it.
Ohio State 62 Michigan 60
Virginia Tech +12
I think this is way too many points against a very stingy VT D. The only reason this is not a play is the fact that VT can't take care of the ball and Cuse is one of the best teams in the nation at turning teams over and converting that to points.
Tennessee State +8
Similar to the game above I just feel like this is too many points to lay but also MTSU is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation especially on the offensive glass and might be able to dominate the paint and get many second chance shots.