I've already posted this is Lloyd's math thread, but in case he does not have time to respond, I wanted to open it up to community input. Thanks.

If Kentucky wins outright, my husband wins the pool we are in. First place is somewhere between $3,000 and $3,500. I know that is a wide range, but I'm trying to get a more accurate figure. Obviously, you must hedge with Kansas +6 here, and hope for the always elusive middle, but the question is, what does the math say the right amount is for the hedge bet?

Thanks.