In-Depth Expanded Summary: "CBB Title Pick w/ Scott Seidenberg"
This detailed analysis follows Scott Seidenberg, RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers as they break down the NCAA national championship contenders using historical trends, statistical models, and coaching pedigree. Seidenberg refines predictive metrics from KenPom rankings, narrows the field to Auburn and Houston, and ultimately selects Houston as the national champion (+750 odds) based on guard play, three-point shooting, and veteran leadership.
Historical Trends & Metrics Defining Champions (0:00 - 1:18)
Scott Seidenberg opens the discussion by addressing a widely circulated trend in college basketball analytics. Since 2001:
- 96% of national champions had a top-21 offense in KenPom rankings.
- 91% of champions had a top-31 defense in KenPom.
However, he refines the analysis, arguing that these cutoffs feel arbitrary. Instead, he focuses on teams that rank in the top 20 in both categories—a stricter criterion that has held true for 18 of the last 20 champions.
The only two exceptions in the past 20 years:
- 2014 UConn (Shabazz Napier's Cinderella run).
- 2021 Baylor, which had an outstanding offensive surge.
By refining the numbers and looking only at the past two decades (2004 onward), Seidenberg confirms that almost every national champion has been elite on both ends of the floor before the tournament began.
Identifying This Year’s Contenders (1:18 - 2:12)
Seidenberg applies the top-20 offense/defense metric to the current NCAA season and identifies four teams that qualify:
- Auburn (#1 offense, #14 defense).
- Duke (#2 offense, #4 defense).
- Florida (#3 offense, #11 defense).
- Houston (#9 offense, #2 defense).
These four teams statistically fit the mold of a champion based on the last 20 years. However, he stresses that historical trends alone don’t determine a champion—other factors must be considered.
KenPom’s Overall Importance (2:28 - 3:35)
In addition to offensive and defensive rankings, Seidenberg emphasizes another major predictive factor:
- 19 of the last 20 champions were ranked in the top 10 overall in KenPom before the tournament.
- The only exception? Again, 2014 UConn.
Looking at this year’s rankings, the same four teams (Duke, Auburn, Houston, and Florida) are the top four overall in KenPom. This further validates them as legitimate title contenders.
The Coaching Factor: Separating the True Contenders (3:35 - 5:25)
Seidenberg introduces another key championship predictor:
“Almost every national champion had an elite, long-tenured head coach.”
Past winning coaches include:
- Bill Self (Kansas)
- Tony Bennett (Virginia)
- Jay Wright (Villanova)
- Roy Williams (UNC)
- Mike Krzyzewski (Coach K) (Duke)
- Rick Pitino (Louisville)
- John Calipari (Kentucky)
- Billy Donovan (Florida)
Eliminating Teams Based on Coaching Pedigree:
- Duke is eliminated due to John Scheyer’s inexperience.
- Florida is eliminated due to Todd Golden’s short tenure.
- Auburn (Bruce Pearl) and Houston (Kelvin Sampson) remain as the best-coached teams.
RJ Bell and Steve Fezzik debate the criteria for defining an "elite" coach (e.g., years of success, Sweet 16 appearances), but the main takeaway is that proven, respected coaches lead championship teams.
The Final Choice: Houston vs. Auburn (5:25 - 7:28)
With only Auburn and Houston remaining, Seidenberg turns to three key championship-winning factors:
1?? Veteran Leadership – Both teams have senior leaders, so no clear edge here.
2?? Three-Point Shooting – A major NCAA tournament success factor:
- Houston ranks 4th nationally in three-point percentage.
- Auburn ranks 39th.
Advantage: Houston.
3?? Guard Play Dominance – 12 of the last 20 NCAA Tournament MOPs (Most Outstanding Players) were guards.
- Houston’s leading scorer (LJ Cryer) is a guard.
- Auburn’s leading scorer (Jani Broome) is a forward.
- Advantage: Houston.
Final Decision: Houston is the best pick for the national championship at +750 odds.
Expanded Key Insights
KenPom Rankings Matter: 18 of the last 20 champions were top 20 in both offense and defense before the tournament.
Pre-Tournament Rankings Are Key: Seidenberg’s system focuses on rankings before the tournament (not including tournament wins that could artificially inflate rankings).
Coaching Experience Eliminates Teams: Duke and Florida are ruled out due to coaching inexperience.
Elite Teams Remain: Houston and Auburn are the final contenders after filtering through statistical and coaching criteria.
Guard Play is the Difference-Maker: Houston’s leading scorer is a guard (LJ Cryer), while Auburn relies on a forward.
Houston is the Pick (+750 odds): Seidenberg selects Houston based on three-point shooting, veteran leadership, and guard play—historical indicators of success in March Madness.
Final Thoughts
This discussion blends historical trends, analytics, and coaching experience to make a data-driven championship prediction. Seidenberg eliminates teams step by step until he arrives at Houston as the most statistically reliable March Madness champion pick.
Houston has the numbers, coaching, and skillset to win it all.