Extended Summary: AJ Hoffman's College Basketball Best Bet (Xavier +850)
Introduction
AJ Hoffman, a sports analyst from Pregame.com, presents his best bet for the Big East Conference Tournament. His pick is Xavier (+850 odds), which he believes offers significant value based on recent team performance, conference-wide struggles, and favorable matchups.
Hoffman systematically breaks down why Xavier is an undervalued bet, comparing their odds to other teams and analyzing their path in the tournament. He argues that traditional powerhouses (UConn, Creighton, Marquette, and Villanova) are weaker this season, creating an opportunity for a lower-seeded team to make a deep run.
Quote Analysis and Key Takeaways
1. Betting on Xavier (+850) for the Big East Title (0:00 - 1:04)
"My best bet, let's go to the Big East Conference, and I'm gonna go with Xavier. Xco and give it to you at plus 850. I just don’t understand the odds here."
Hoffman is surprised by the odds given Xavier’s recent performance. +850 odds mean a significant return on investment, especially for a team he considers one of the best in the conference at the moment.
"They're playing some of the best basketball in the Big East at this point. It's a down Big East, so I don’t think even the teams at the top are unbeatable."
Here, he suggests that Xavier’s form is peaking at the right time, while the rest of the conference is weaker than usual. The phrase "down Big East" emphasizes that no team is dominant, making an underdog bet more appealing.
2. Evaluating the Competition and Matchups
"That includes St. John's, so there's just no value in it plus 150, 155."
Hoffman dismisses St. John's as a betting option because the odds are too low (+150 to +155), meaning a bet on them would not yield a great return. He implies that their path to the title is not significantly easier than Xavier’s, making Xavier’s +850 odds more attractive.
"But Xavier plays Marquette in the second round. That matchup is already set. They've split the season series."
Marquette vs. Xavier is a crucial second-round matchup. Since both teams won one game each in the regular season, it is an evenly matched contest. This makes Marquette’s +550 odds questionable, given that they are struggling while Xavier is trending upward.
"Marquette’s plus 550 to win the Big East. Xavier’s plus 850 despite the fact Marquette has fallen off a cliff in the last two months while Xavier’s playing their best basketball of the season."
Hoffman critiques the oddsmakers for overvaluing Marquette despite their poor form in recent months. His argument is that Xavier should have better odds (or at least be closer to Marquette's odds of +550) given their opposite trajectories.
3. Xavier’s Performance Against Strong Teams
"They also played St. John's tough, and they lost both games. One of them was in overtime. They can hang with the Johnnies."
Even though Xavier lost twice to St. John’s, the overtime loss suggests they are capable of competing with top teams. This reinforces the idea that Xavier is not overmatched, even against one of the better teams in the conference.
"I like Xavier here. I like the number we're getting on them."
Hoffman reiterates his confidence in Xavier as a smart value bet. He highlights the odds (+850) as a crucial factor, not just their ability to win.
4. The Big East’s Decline and the Underdog Opportunity
"And again, in a year where UConn is down, Creighton is down, Marquette is down, Villanova's basically out, I really think that you're just kind of trying to find the right long shot here, and Xavier is going to be that long shot for me."
Hoffman lists traditional Big East powerhouses that are weaker than usual:
UConn is down
Creighton is down
Marquette is down
Villanova is not a factor
This opens the door for a lower-seeded team like Xavier to make a deep run. Since no team is dominating, picking a long-shot bet makes sense.
"So give me Xavier to win the Big East plus 850."
Hoffman closes with a firm endorsement of Xavier as his top betting pick.
Player and Team Statistics Analysis
Xavier’s Strengths in Context
Current Form: Playing their best basketball of the season.
Key Matchup: Facing Marquette in the second round (regular season series tied 1-1).
Competitive Record: Lost twice to St. John’s, but one was in overtime, proving they can compete.
Conference Context: Traditional top teams are struggling.
Marquette’s Struggles
Major decline in form over the past two months.
Still given strong odds at +550 despite their struggles.
St. John’s and Other Big East Teams
St. John’s: Considered a strong team, but odds are too low to justify betting.
Villanova: Essentially out of contention.
UConn & Creighton: Not at their usual strength, making the tournament more open.
Why Xavier at +850 is a Smart Bet
1?? Form Peak Timing – They are playing their best basketball heading into the tournament.
2?? Favorable Odds – +850 is a great risk-reward ratio.
3?? Marquette is Overrated – Their +550 odds don’t reflect their decline.
4?? Balanced Matchups – Xavier split the season series with Marquette and played St. John’s tough.
5?? Conference is Weak – No team is dominant, making it easier for an underdog to win.
6?? High-Value Bet – Compared to St. John’s (+150) and Marquette (+550), Xavier offers better potential returns.
Final Conclusion
AJ Hoffman presents a well-reasoned betting pick on Xavier at +850. His analysis is based on:
- Recent team performance (Xavier improving, Marquette declining).
- Conference-wide struggles, making the field more open.
- Betting value, with Xavier’s odds providing a high-reward opportunity.
For bettors looking for a long-shot pick in the Big East, Xavier offers a strong combination of form, odds, and opportunity.