Extended Summary of "Thursday College Basketball Free Pick from Dave Essler"

Speaker: Dave Essler

Timestamp: (0:00 - 1:24)

Dave Essler provides an in-depth analysis of the upcoming college basketball game between Kennesaw State and New Mexico State. His primary betting recommendation is that the total points will stay under 136.5. He acknowledges that at first glance, this line might seem too easy, but through his research, he has found strong supporting reasons to back the bet.

Breakdown of Key Factors

1?? Historical Performance Supports the Under

• Previous matchups between Kennesaw State and New Mexico State ended with 125 and 109 total points, significantly lower than the 136.5-point total set for this game.
• Essler suggests that this past performance is not just a fluke but indicative of how these teams play against each other.
• Even in situations where totals are set higher, their style of play and defensive capabilities limit overall scoring.

2?? Contrasting Styles of Play Will Slow Down the Game

• New Mexico State prefers a slow-paced, half-court offense, meaning they take their time on possessions instead of pushing for quick points.
• Kennesaw State, on the other hand, plays at a much faster pace and tries to run in transition.
• Essler points out that the game is being played on a neutral court, which typically benefits the team that wants to slow things down rather than the one trying to push the tempo.
• Historically, in similar neutral-site matchups, the team controlling the pace usually dictates the total points outcome, further favoring a low-scoring game.

3?? New Mexico State’s Offensive Struggles

• New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in Conference USA, which means they are unlikely to push the total up significantly.
• While Kennesaw State is turnover-prone, New Mexico State does not capitalize on turnovers by running fast breaks, which could otherwise lead to easy scoring opportunities.
• Since turnovers won’t result in a lot of fast-break points, the game remains slower, favoring the under.

4?? Strong Defensive Presence from Both Teams

• Essler highlights that both teams rank among the best defensive teams in their conference:
  • New Mexico State: 1st in defensive efficiency
  • Kennesaw State: 3rd in defensive efficiency
• Strong defenses limit offensive production, making it more difficult for teams to score efficiently.
• This ranking reinforces the likelihood of a lower total score.

5?? Skepticism About the 136.5-Point Total

• Essler questions whether the 136.5 total came from an analytical model that might not take all real-game conditions into account.
• He argues that analytics alone do not tell the whole story and that game flow, past matchups, and defensive strength are better indicators.
• He expresses confidence that the game will stay under this total unless unexpected factors like overtime or excessive late-game free throws change the outcome.

6?? First Half Under as an Additional Bet

• Beyond the full-game under bet, Essler also advocates betting on the first-half under.
• His reasoning:
  • Teams often start slower on neutral courts.
  • New Mexico State’s style of play ensures fewer possessions early in the game.
  • The strong defenses should immediately set the tone.
• If the first half remains low-scoring, it further increases the chances of the full game staying under as well.

Final Thoughts

Essler strongly believes that this game will remain under 136.5 points, with multiple supporting factors:
  Historical matchups have shown low totals
  New Mexico State prefers a slow-paced game
  New Mexico State’s offense is one of the worst in Conference USA
  Kennesaw State’s turnover problems won’t lead to fast-break points
  Both teams rank high in defensive efficiency
  Neutral court favors a slower tempo

Additionally, he recommends betting on the first-half under, as it is likely to start slow before defenses settle in completely.

Key Risks to the Bet:
  Late-game fouls and free throws could push the total higher than expected
  If the game goes to overtime, the under bet is at significant risk

Despite these potential risks, Essler is confident in his under 136.5 pick, making a compelling case based on data, past trends, and game dynamics.