We are only 6 Days away from the start of CBB! Today I’m going to review the antonym of the Fade 4. This is for all the ravers out there, my MDMA 4 (Math Don’t Math At All).
These are teams ranked between 50 and 150 in the preseason Kenpom, that we expect to be ranked a lot higher by the end of the season. We are looking for the Indiana States, the James Madisons, the Samfords, and the Princetons, who all went 60% ATS in Non-Conference.
Let’s dive into it:
College of Charleston (Kenpom: #137)
Lost coach Pat Kelsey (giant tool) to Louisville but got as good of a replacement you can get as a mid major in former Xavier coach Chris Mack (let’s forget about the Louisville stint).
Mack made a living in the Big East defying pre-season Kenpom expectations, jumping from 67 to 21 in 15’, 31 to 14 in 16’, and 26 to 15’ in 18’. Obviously the roster is completely turned over but CofC has scorers in the backcourt with Lipscomb transfer Derrin Boyd (17.6PPG) and Citadel transfer AJ Smith (16.2PPG). There is also a ton of size in the frontcourt with Xavier transfer Lazar Djokovic (6’11) and returning center Ante Brzovic (6’10).
These guys play a ton of similar ranked teams in the Non-Con including South Florida (#102), FAU (#104), Liberty (#106), and Rhode Island (#122) so expect some tight lines where we are essentially picking a winner.
High Point (Kenpom: #108)
First year coach Allen Huss took the Panthers from pre-season #282 all the way up to #108 by the end of it, included in that was a stretch where they won 17 of 18 games. Overall they were a blistering 19-13 ATS.
They do lose star Duke Miles to Oklahoma but return 3 starters in Kezza Giffa (16.2PPG), Kimani Hamilton (14.9PPG), Abdoulae Thiam (12.7PPG) who average double digits and propelled this offense to #36 in the country. The defense does need improvement (#260) but they do have 7 footer Juslin Bobo Bobo anchoring the paint (1.9BPG)..
Unfortunately not a ton of marquee matchups in the non-con with UAB (more to come on them) and North Texas as the marquee matchups. But look for these guys to run a lot of teams out of the gym and easily cover the number.
UAB (Kenpom: #82)
Andy Kennedy’s team actually ended last season worse than they started (106 vs. 90) but it is still impressive to get the water back to it’s level after they bottomed out at 175 on before beating Drake on 12/22. The season culminated with a dominating run to the American conference tournament title and taking San Diego State down to the wire in the 12 vs. 5 game in the NCAA’s.
If you haven’t heard the name Yaxel Lendeborg, you will soon. He made some 3rd team All American lists, returning after averaging 13.8ppg, 10.6 boards, and 2.1 blocks. Alejandro Vasquez is a sniper at the SG position (39.4% 3P) and Butta Johnson is a streaky but effective scorer. A lot hinges on how Georgia Southern PG transfer Tyren Moore (17PPG) replaces Eric Gaines.
This will be a highly motivated team in during the American slate (they will need to be as they have the , where there are going to be tight spreads to be had, as they currently have only 1 Top 100 Non Conference opponent (Vermont #96).
Notre Dame (Kenpom #69)
In Micah Shrewsberry’s first year, the Irish looked like they were going to be competing with Louisville, Georgetown, and DePaul for worst Power 6 team in the country, bottoming out at 226 with a loss to the Citadel. That’s when Shrewsberry told the whole team they should transfer and they went on a run to improve their Kenpom up to 118 with wins over Virginia, Clemson, and Wake Forest.
Markus Burton is one of the best point guards in the country that no one talks about (17.5PPG / 4.3APG). Braeden Shrewsberry should improve in his sophomore year and the Irish’s dreadful 3P shooting (31.8%) will get a big boost from Princeton transfer Matt Allocco (41.8%).
Shrewsberry is confident in this roster, otherwise they wouldn’t have entered one of the best tournament fields in the country with the Players Era. They are guaranteed games vs. Rutgers and Houston, and have another decent non-con against Georgia. The Irish proved last season that they are not quitters and will fight to the buzzer.
Sound off on any other teams you believe are ranked too low!