I know there have been a lot of posts about these games and more will be coming, but I wanted give some thoughts and elicit feedback on these games. 

I am purely a recreational bettor who takes it pretty seriously.  I feel like I have had a pretty good read on the tourney teams as I went 7-4-1 last weekend with two of the loses by 1 point (not complaining, just stating I have been pretty dialed in so far). 

I have been thinking a lot about these games and here are my takes.  I would love to hear counterpoints or others' thoughts on the games.

Purdue-NC State

I like Purdue -8.5 (Ceasar's).  I have been on NC St most of the tournament, but feel their run is over.  I am afraid Burns/Diarra/Middlebrooks will be in foul trouble.  I watch a lot of Big10 Basketball and have seen Edey get the benefit of the ref's whistle all year (and have actively rooted against Purdue because of it) so I don;t think it will change this game, but I do have some concerns after the outcry from the TN game.  Also, I feel like Burns has been at his best using his great footwork to get up shots near the rim or passing to the open man out of the double-team, but i think Edey will be able to handle him alone due to good footwork and a long reach.  Lastly, Burns seems to get tired and may have trouble staying in the game for long stretches.  All of this leads me to believe purdue will do better around the rim.  Purdue is also a better 3-point shooting team (although shooting in a stadium might limit both teams jump-shooting).

UConn-Bama

I like the under in the first half (76 or 76.5).  If I had to pick which half has given these teams the most trouble, it would be the first.  That's not to say both have struggled in the 1st, but they seem to have typically done better in the second half.  Also, the large stadium may affect shooting especially early.  I will not be betting this as I don't like to bet the under in games I am watching because I just spend the entire time complaining about bankshots 3-point plays and it ruins the game for me. 

I lean UConn, but will be wait for in game to make a bet.  To me, this game completely hinges on Bama's 3-point shooting, making this a high variance game. I think Clingan can control the paint enough to limit Bama there in the half-court offense and UConn did a good job against IL's speed last game (although IL missed a ton of shots at the rim, especially in the first half) so I think they can control Bama there.  However, if Bama takes 45 three-pointers and hit 45% (both of which are possible because that is their game plan) they can beat anyone.  There is a part of me that thinks Bama either wins or gets blown-out, but that is probably just an oversimplification on my part.

Those are my thoughts on the games.  I am curious what others think.  

Rick