AS OF 3/14/23
SIDES: 17-9 (65%)
O/U: 3-6
ML : 9-3 (most picks were favorites between -150 and -200, a.k.a. SQUARE BETS)
LEANS: 7-6 (a mix of sides/overs/square ML's)
GIGGLES PAH-LAYS: 1-1
WELLLL... TIME FOR THE ANNUAL RITUAL OF LAYING SOME NICKELS ON WHO WILL TAKE THE CROWN...
ALTHOUGH I DID NOT POST IN THIS FORUM FOR LAST YEARS DANCE, I MADE SOME BACK BY LAYING A FEW ON KANSAS, AMONG OTHERS. THIS YEAR IS TOUGH FOR ME. I SEE NO CLEAR CUT FAVORITE AND CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A LOT OF TEAMS. ULTIMATELY, I ALWAYS SPREAD SOME LOVE AMONG A HANDFUL OF TEAMS. HELL, WITH THE ODDS THEY GIVE US, YOU CAN STILL TURN A TIDY PROFIT BY LAYING SOME CHEESE ON A HANDFUL OF PICKS.
I SCRIBBLED THE FOLLOWING ON A COUPLE OF ENVELOPES I GOT THROUGH SNAIL MAIL FROM LOCAL MORTUARYS PIMPING DIRT CRYPTS. YOU KNOW YOU'RE FARTING DUST WHEN SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL FILLS UP YOUR MAILBOX WITH MORE PAPER SHREDDER MATERIAL THAN THE CREDIT CARD COMPANIES AND THEIR BALANCE TRANSFER OFFERS.
LET'S GET AT IT... SOOO, YOU CAN SPEND LOT'S OF TIME CRUNCHING THE METRICS, LOOKING AT SOS, POMS, YADA, YADA, YADA, YADA, TO FIND YOUR HORSES. ME? NAAAAH... I JUST FOLLOW THIS SIMPLE APPROACH: PICK 3. THEN LAY HALF A UNIT. FIRST PICK IS A #1 OR #2 SEED. THE SECOND PICK IS A #2 OR #3 SEED. THE THIRD PICK IS EITHER A #1, #2, #3, OR #4 SEED.
THIS YEAR I AM CONSIDERING:
(1) UCONN +1600 (.5 UNITS)
(2) MARQUETTE +2000 (.5 UNITS)
(3) TEXAS +1500 (.5 UNITS)
1.5 UNITS OF EXPOSURE, WITH AN UPSIDE OF 7.5 UNITS ON THE LOW END, AND 10 UNITS ON THE HIGH END, BEFORE DEDUCTING INITIAL INVESTMENT. LIKE IT? LOOOOOOVE IT.
SO, HERE'S THE LOGIC: SINCE 1979, EITHER THE #1, #2, OR #3 SEED HAVE TAKEN IT ALL. THAT'S BETTER THAN AN 85% CLIP. SINCE 1990, THE #1, #2, OR #3 SEED HAVE WON IT ALL AT AN AMAZING CLIP OF BETTER THAN 90%!!! THAT'S MONEY. SO IN ESSENCE, I JUST GROUP ALL THE TEAMS WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE SEEDED CATEGORIES, AND THEN PICK THOSE SEEDS THAT MY CRAYON TELLS ME HAVE THAT "IT" FACTOR. I KNOW, I KNOW, UCONN IS A #4 SEED AND THE #4 SEED HAS WON IT ONLY 1 TIME IN THE PAST 44 YEARS, BUT LIKE I SAID, NO ONE TEAM REALLY GRABS ME THIS YEAR, SO WHY NOT UCONN AT #4? I FIGURE THE #4 IS DUE, RIGHT?
BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN YOUR INVESTMENTS FOR THIS YEARS DANCE.